It’s getaway day for a handful of teams in MLB, but I’ve still got three prop bets from the late-night slate.
Today’s MLB props narrative: The Colorado Rockies host the San Francisco Giants in Wednesday’s nightcap, and the road team is favoured with Robbie Ray pitching. I’m expecting Ray to cruise and Jerar Encarnacion to do damage against Colorado’s Kyle Freeland.
Check out my best MLB prop bets for June 11, also featuring Sean Burke.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Ray over 7.5 strikeouts (-103)
Blue Jays fans reading this will remember how electric Ray was during his 2021 Cy Young campaign. Well, nearly four years later, he’s back at that level.
- 2.44 ERA (14th)
- 1.07 WHIP (21st)
- 10.1 K/9 rate (14th)
The southpaw has an 83rd percentile K rate (28.4%) to pair with a 79th percentile whiff rate (29.7%), per Baseball Savant. Ray has cleared this line in three of his last five starts, landing on exactly seven Ks in both of the outliers.
Colorado is the laughing-stock of MLB through 60-odd games, with a 12-54 record. It ranks inside the bottom-three in batting average, wRC+ and K rate.
Ray suited up against the Rockies at the start of May and fanned eight batters over 7.0 shutout innings.
Key stat: Ray has a 38.2% K rate against this Rockies lineup across 34 combined plate appearances.
Best MLB picks
Encarnacion to record an RBI (+108): You probably don’t know who Encarnacion is, and that’s fine. To be honest, I didn’t either until researching picks for this late game.
The 28-year-old is batting cleanup for the Giants in hitter-friendly Coors Field, behind guys like Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee, and Wilmer Flores, all of whom are favoured to go over 1.5 bases.
Encarnacion has struggled since his call-up from Triple-A Sacramento but was solid in the minors, and has a great matchup against Freeland.
- Encarnacion has batted .351 over 40 Triple-A games the last two seasons (slugging .696 this year).
- In 35 games with the Giants last year, he hit .262 vs. LHP and .239 vs. RHP.
- Righties are batting .332 vs. Freeland this year.
Colorado’s southpaw has an unsightly 5.19 ERA this season. I expect San Fran to light him up and Encarnacion to do damage out of the cleanup spot.
Burke over 16.5 outs (-106): Burke has found his footing after a nightmarish start to the season.
- April stats: 7.71 ERA, 0-5 vs. this line
- Stats from May 1 onward: 2.70 ERA, 5-2 vs. this line
The Chicago White Sox righty has logged three straight quality starts (outings with 6.0-plus IP and three or fewer earned runs) against solid opponents.
He most recently held the MLB-best Detroit Tigers to two runs over 7.0 IP.
Tonight, Burke goes up against a Houston Astros team missing its best hitter, Yordan Alvarez. The Stros rank 27th in batting average and 29th in wRC+ over the last 15 days.
MLB prop picks made at 2:18 p.m. ET on 06/11/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.