The red-hot Manny Machado headlines Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Machado has blasted six home runs this month and has a great matchup against Matthew Liberatore and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 26, also featuring Jordan Westburg.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Machado over 1.5 bases (-120)
Machado has been one of baseball’s best hitters since the Fourth of July, posting a monster .300/.346/.600 slash line in 18 games.
- Machado’s .321 xBA and .681 xSLG in that span indicate he hasn’t been lucky and is actually leaving some production on the table.
- From July 4 onwards, Machado has a 66% hard-hit rate. For context, Aaron Judge’s season-long hard-hit rate is 56.5%.
That’s bad news for Liberatore.
St. Louis’ southpaw has a good but not great 4.13 ERA this season, which is right in line with his xERA (4.12). He also ranks in the bottom-35th percentile for hard-hit rate, K rate, whiff rate and barrel rate.
The right-hitting Machado actually has a much higher batting average against righties (.304) than he does against lefties (.249). But his slugging percentage against southpaws (.552) is 82 points higher.
Key stat: Machado is 5-3 against this line since the all-star break.
Best MLB picks
Westburg over 1.5 bases (-118): Westburg is on a rampage this month, slashing .317/.348/.540 while doing a bunch of damage post-all-star break.
The 26-year-old hit a home run yesterday and a double two days before that. Overall, he’s 4-4 against this line since the Midsummer Classic.
That’s not fantastic, but it is good enough to get my attention, especially when he’s facing the Colorado Rockies and Antonio Senzatela.
Senzatela has a 6.41 ERA, and that’s not just Coors Field tax. His road ERA (6.43) is higher than his home ERA (6.39).
Westburg runs reverse splits, meaning he hits righties better than lefties. This should be a perfect matchup for the streaking third baseman.
MLB prop picks made at 10:59 a.m. ET on 07/26/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.