It’s the final day before MLB’s all-star break, and Sunday afternoon is loaded up with action.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Jose Altuve duels with familiar foe in the Lone Star State, looking to keep up his power surge. Elsewhere, Teoscar Hernandez has value against a left-handed pitcher in what has been a highly profitable platoon advantage.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 13, featuring a fade of Luis Arraez.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Altuve over 1.5 total bases (+138)
There’s a longstanding battle between two veterans brewing deep in the heart of Texas today.
Altuve and Nathan Eovaldi, both 35, will continue an extended saga that is 58 plate appearances deep.
Houston’s small slugger has had the upper hand, going 17-for-55 (.309) with seven home runs and a pair of walks. That equates to a .727 SLG, which isn’t too much of an outperformance of his xSLG (.661), as tracked by Baseball Savant.
Both players are having solid seasons, though it’s Eovaldi who has shone particularly bright. The Houston native is a legitimate all-star snub, posting a 1.62 ERA and 2.30 FIP over 15 starts.
Altuve is 47th in MLB in slugging percentage (.465) and is still a well-above-average bat with his 120 wRC+. He’s also doing his best work right now.
After bashing a 407-foot home run off Jacob deGrom last night, Altuve is up to a .370/.426/.826 slash line in his past 12 games. He has 10 extra-base hits in that span.
For as dominant as Eovaldi’s numbers have been, he’s practically a league average guy when it comes to contact quality:
- 40th-percentile average exit velocity
- 56th-percentile barrel rate
- 57th-percentile xBA
Eovaldi also rarely walks batters (97th-percentile walk rate), while Altuve seldom strikes out (82nd-percentile K rate). So I expect plenty of opportunities with the ball in play.
Key stat: Altuve is 9-3 vs. this prop in his past 12 games.
Best MLB picks
Arraez under 0.5 hits (+230): This is far more ambitious than I typically go for a straight prop, but let’s live a little.
Arraez is a three-time reigning batting champ, which is really difficult to bet against, but he’s nowhere near that realm in 2025.
After posting a combined .328 BA from 2022-24, Arraez is batting .283 this year — with a .272 xBA.
He’ll be at a platoon disadvantage today against Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sanchez (7-2, 2.59 ERA), who has been absolutely dealing all year. Against left-hitting players specifically, Sanchez has allowed a .188 BA.
Arraez puts the ball in play more than 90% of the time, which doesn’t help our case. But he’s hitless in five of 11 games this month, and Sanchez is downright nasty.
Hernandez over 1.5 total bases (+143): Hernandez is hitting righties worse than he has at any point since his debut season (2016), but his production against left-handers hasn’t wavered.
In fact, Hernandez’s .695 SLG vs. lefties is the second-best of his career. And his 166 wRC+ vs. LHPs since the start of last season ranks ninth among 136 qualified hitters.
Giants starter Robbie Ray (9-3, 2.63 ERA) is having a bounce-back season, but Hernandez has gotten the better of his ex-Toronto teammate in the past.
Hernandez is 3-for-7 vs. Ray with two home runs and a walk.
MLB prop picks made at 9:35 a.m. ET on 07/13/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.