Opening Day is in sight.
With a new baseball season around the corner and clean slates across the board, every team — including the Toronto Blue Jays — has at least a theoretical chance to make it to October.
From the Los Angeles Dodgers down to the Chicago White Sox, check out our 2025 MLB playoff odds as of Feb. 28.
MLB playoff odds
Playoff-hopeful ballclubs are vying for division titles over wild-card berths. But as far as playoff odds markets go, those are one in the same.
This season marks the fourth year of MLB’s 12-team playoff format, which sends three division winners and three wild cards per league into the postseason.
If everything goes according to chalk, we’ll have a bit of a musical chairs situation in the National League. There are seven teams with implied playoff odds above 50.0% — but there are only six spots to fill.
American League playoff odds
| Team | MLB playoff odds | Odds to miss playoffs |
| New York Yankees | -500 | +345 |
| Baltimore Orioles | -205 | +160 |
| Houston Astros | -148 | +115 |
| Boston Red Sox | -136 | +105 |
| Texas Rangers | -121 | -103 |
| Seattle Mariners | -112 | -112 |
| Minnesota Twins | +120 | -155 |
| Kansas City Royals | +100 | -127 |
| Detroit Tigers | +110 | -137 |
| Cleveland Guardians | +115 | -148 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | +230 | -305 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | +280 | -400 |
| Los Angeles Angels | +800 | -1,667 |
| Athletics | +900 | -2,500 |
| Chicago White Sox | +4,000 | N/A |
MLB playoff odds as of 2:00 p.m. ET on 02/28/25.
The Blue Jays had a precipitous fall from grace last season, finishing in the basement of the AL East thanks to a 15-win regression from the year before.
Ahead of the 2024 season, the Blue Jays held -150 odds to reach the playoffs. Now they have -400 odds to miss the playoffs.
Toronto’s +280 odds to reach the playoffs equate to a 26.3% implied probability. FanGraphs is more optimistic, projecting a 38.6% chance for the Jays to crack the postseason field.
Part of what makes Toronto a playoff outsider is the depth of its division. Two of the AL’s top three World Series contenders — based on the odds leaderboard — play in the AL East (Yankees, Orioles).
The other aspect is the Jays’ lack of big moves in the offseason.
Toronto was active, adding guys like Anthony Santander, Andres Gimenez and Max Scherzer, but the team made more noise as a reported finalist for Juan Soto and Roki Sasaki.
After last season’s disaster, a top-of-market signing could’ve done wonders to ignite the Jays’ playoff dreams.
AL betting notes
- Somehow, three AL Central teams wriggled their way into the playoff field last year. In fact, all three reached the division series round. But now none of those teams has minus odds to return to the postseason. Oddly enough, the AL Central team with the shortest playoff odds is Minnesota (+120), who missed the postseason in 2024.
- After missing the playoffs in five of the past six seasons, it’s go time for the Red Sox. They let all of their free agents find new homes, opting instead to land Garrett Crochet on the trade market and bring in some notable free agents (Alex Bregman, Aroldis Chapman, Walker Buehler). Boston’s bolstered squad is partially to blame for Toronto’s tanking playoff odds.
- The Rangers’ championship hangover lasted a full season. Yikes. Time to see if guys like Jacob deGrom, Josh Jung and Evan Carter can stay healthy for half a season or more. On the pitching side, there’s comfort knowing that Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter are waiting in the wings as option-eligible minor leaguers.
National League playoff odds
| Team | MLB playoff odds | Odds to miss playoffs |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | -10,000 | +2,000 |
| Atlanta Braves | -335 | +240 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | -335 | +235 |
| New York Mets | -286 | +220 |
| Chicago Cubs | -130 | +100 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | -125 | +100 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | -105 | -120 |
| San Diego Padres | +105 | -132 |
| San Francisco Giants | +170 | -225 |
| Cincinnati Reds | +210 | -286 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | +280 | -400 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | +375 | -560 |
| Washington Nationals | +850 | -2,000 |
| Miami Marlins | +2,000 | -10,000 |
| Colorado Rockies | +2,500 | -10,000 |
MLB playoff odds as of 2:00 p.m. ET on 02/28/24.
NL betting notes
- The Padres were one game shy of an NLCS last year, and now they’re eighth in playoff odds with only six NL spots up for grabs. San Diego added payroll this winter with some arbitration-induced raises, but it didn’t make any transactional splashes. Then again, is that needed when you have Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Dylan Cease and more?
- The Braves, Phillies and Mets all reached the postseason out of the NL East last year, and all three are heavily favoured to do so again. Given that they’re three of MLB’s eight teams wielding a payroll of $200-plus million, it makes sense. But with so many divisional matchups, one team could fall by the wayside … and the odds suggest that Juan Soto’s Mets are in the most danger for that.
- It seems like the Cubs have converted to a competitive mindset, and at -130 their playoff odds look rather compelling. The new-look North Siders now employ Kyle Tucker (equipped with contract-year motivation), and their remade bullpen features Ryan Pressly and Ryan Brasier. In the always-watered-down NL Central, that’ll play.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.