Spencer Torkelson is having a quiet month, but he’s liable to break out at any moment with a left-handed pitcher on the mound.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Torkelson is tagging lefties at an elite rate, which is why he’s featured in Wednesday’s MLB home run picks. In Kansas City, the conditions are ripe for Yandy Diaz to go deep as he looks to extend a power-charged hit streak.
Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 25, which also includes a prediction on Max Muncy.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Diaz to hit a home run (+575)
The wind is blowing out to left field tonight at Kauffman Stadium in the 10-to-12-mph range, per Swish Analytics.
That’s a good place to start when backing a right-hitting ballplayer.
Diaz is known to mash the ball, though he doesn’t hit it in the air often enough. He owns a 55.3% hard-hit rate (98th percentile, per Baseball Savant), but his 4.8-degree launch angle is roughly a third of the league average (12.4 degrees).
With ample pop, though, Diaz is always capable of running into one. He’s proven that during an active 13-game hitting streak:
- .464 BA
- .768 SLG
- 4 HRs
- 63% hard-hit rate
Michael Wacha starts for the Royals tonight, and although he hasn’t allowed a ton of hard contact this year, I still view this as a solid matchup for Diaz.
Wacha is a low-strikeout guy who doesn’t induce a lot of ground balls. His 40.1% ground ball rate ranks in the 40th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
In his past five outings, Wacha has allowed multiple HRs three times.
Key stat: Diaz is 3-for-8 with a home run and a double vs. Wacha.
Best HR predictions
Muncy to hit a home run (+380): I tried with Muncy yesterday, and he didn’t come through. He did finish 2-for-5 with a pair of 300-plus-feet balls in play, though.
That extended a superb offensive stretch for Muncy dating back to May 27. Since then, he has a .693 SLG and a 214 wRC+, with eight HRs in 21 games.
Rockies rookie Chase Dollander has really been feeling the effects of Denver’s altitude so far. The right-hander has allowed eight home runs and a .626 SLG in just 20.2 innings at Coors Field.
Among 135 pitchers with 50-plus innings, Dollander has the second-worst HR/9 (2.22).
Torkelson to hit a home run (+390): Torkelson is homer-less in his past nine games, which isn’t a significant stretch. But it’s his longest drought of the season, and I say he’s due for another long ball.
- The former No. 1 overall pick is on a 32-homer pace, which would be his career best.
- Torkelson is slugging .595 vs. left-handed pitchers, and his seven homers against LHPs are tied for the sixth-most in MLB.
A’s lefty Jacob Lopez throws a combination of four-seam fastballs, changeups and sliders to right-hitting players more than 75% of the time. Torkelson has tattooed all of those offerings.
Facing four-seamers, changeups and sliders from LHPs this year, Torkelson has a combined .284/.376/.619 slash line.
MLB home run picks made at 12:08 p.m. ET on 06/25/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.