Ronald Acuna Jr. headlines Saturday’s MLB home run picks.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Acuna is having a fantastic season and battles the homer-prone Kumar Rocker at Globe Life Field tonight. Elsewhere, Ketel Marte has a good opportunity to do damage against a middling lefty.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for July 26.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Acuna to hit a home run (+390)
Acuna’s batting average has taken a dive this month, but he’s still hitting for power, with four home runs and a .598 slugging percentage in 26 games.
Now he gets to go up against a pitcher who struggles to miss bats and gives up a ton of hard contact. What’s not to like?
- Rocker has a 5.66 ERA. His 5.58 xERA ranks in the sixth percentile, while his .286 batting average ranks in the ninth percentile.
- The righty has an eighth percentile hard-hit rate and barrel rate. He’s given up five home runs in his last four games.
Acuna is running reverse splits this season, with a .345/.450/.655 slash line against RHP — 12 of his 13 homers have come against righties.
Rocker throws either a sinker, cutter or 4-seam fastball 70% of the time, and those are offerings Acuna can take advantage of.
Key stat: Acuna is slugging .679 against fastballs from RHP this season.
Best HR predictions
Marte to hit a home run (+285): Marte is having another stellar year with the Arizona Diamondbacks, bashing 20 home runs and slugging a career-best .562.
The switch-hitting second baseman is liable to go deep anytime he steps in the box and has had a ton of success batting from the right against southpaw Andrew Heaney.
Marte is 6-for-13 against Heaney with two home runs.
The southpaw has a bloated 5.03 ERA this season and is one of the most homer-prone pitchers in baseball. He’s given up 15 home runs in his last 10 starts.
MLB home run picks made at 1:27 p.m. ET on 07/26/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.