MLB Home Run Derby odds: Cal Raleigh, Oneil Cruz favourites to win

MLB Home Run Derby odds

This week’s all-star festivities begin Monday night with the MLB Home Run Derby at Truist Park.

The pre-derby narrative: Cal Raleigh is on a historic pace as a home run hitter, and he’ll put that power on display in Atlanta. He’s the co-favourite, alongside Oneil Cruz, in the eight-player derby field.

Check out our MLB Home Run Derby odds for the all-star event on Monday, July 14.

MLB Home Run Derby odds

Click on linked odds below to bet now. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

PlayerOdds
Cal Raleigh+300
Oneil Cruz+315
James Wood+375
Matt Olson+700
Byron Buxton+800
Brent Rooker+900
Junior Caminero+1,100
Jazz Chisholm Jr.+1,200

MLB odds as of 3:10 p.m. ET on 07/14/25.

Best MLB Home Run Derby odds

The co-favourites: Raleigh, Cruz (+300)

Catchers aren’t supposed to mash the way Raleigh does.

Raleigh is subverting the belief that catching is a defence-first position by putting up some insane power numbers this season.

His 38 HRs are the most in the majors, and the most ever for a catcher before the all-star break. He’s also on a 64-homer pace for the season, which would set a new American League record.

With all that in mind, it makes sense for Raleigh to be a co-favourite at the derby.

Then again, claiming the derby title would be a historic feat, too: No catcher or switch-hitter has ever won this event.

Cruz has 16 home runs, which is tied for 40th in MLB. But don’t let that fool you.

Pittsburgh’s converted outfielder (formerly a shortstop) is arguably the hardest hitter in the entire league.

  • 1st in average exit velocity (96.4 mph)
  • 2nd in barrel rate (22.3%)
  • 3rd in hard-hit rate (58.0%)

Cruz has a ton of swing-and-miss in his game, but that shouldn’t be a concern with a batting practice pitcher. He can send the ball to the moon, especially when it’s grooved over the plate.

HR Derby notes

  • One more way to illustrate Cruz’s power is the fact that he has +165 odds to hit the longest home run. Everyone else in the field has odds of +400 or longer.
  • James Wood (+450) has generated some buzz to win the derby after a viral video circulated of a recent batting practice session. Truist Park is the seventh-most favourable HR park for left-hitting players, per Baseball Savant, which works in Wood’s favour.
  • The hometown crowd will be behind Braves slugger Matt Olson (+500), who’s replacing teammate Ronald Acuna Jr. in this event. Olson bashed an MLB-high 54 home runs in 2023, so the upside is there. He ranks in the 95th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
  • Half of the field has odds of 10-to-1 or longer, and the most interesting of that bunch might be Georgia native Byron Buxton (+1,100). He has 21 homers on the season, including 10 in his past 23 games. An intriguing way to back Buxton might be to pick him to hit the longest HR (+550), given that his 479-foot blast in June is the longest of anyone in the field.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.