The final four spots in the Elite Eight will be punched on Friday, and I’ve got three prop bets for the action.
The pregame narrative: Trey Kaufman-Renn has been on a tear for the Purdue Boilermakers, but is worth fading against the Houston Cougars. I’m also backing Jase Richardson (Michigan State) and Vladislav Goldin (Michigan) to do damage.
Check out the best March Madness prop bets for March 28.
March Madness prop bets
Best Bet: Kaufman-Renn under 18.5 points (-137)
Fading Kaufman-Renn is risky business considering he’s leading Purdue with 20.3 PPG and has cleared this line in five straight.
But on Friday, he faces a nightmare matchup against the Cougars:
- Houston has the best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country, according to KenPom.
- That’s largely thanks to owning the fifth-best 2-point defence (44.3%) and having the fifth-highest block rate (15.9%) in D-1.
- The Cougars also play with the fifth-slowest pace, averaging just 61.6 possessions per 40 minutes.
Kaufman-Renn has only attempted seven 3-pointers all season, and I struggle to see him producing with fewer opportunities against a team which fights tooth and nail on every possession.
Key stat: The Cougars allow 58.4 PPG, the lowest in D-1.
Best March Madness picks
Richardson over 18.5 points/rebounds (-134): Richardson is coming off his worst game as a Spartan, scoring six points on 1-of-10 shooting against the New Mexico Lobos in the second round.
Do yourself a favour and throw that result out of the window.
The freshman guard has been a beast since entering the starting lineup on Feb. 8, and one bad result won’t discourage me from backing him at this number.
- 16.2 PPG
- 4.6 RPG
- 9-4 against this line
Mississippi has a solid defence, mainly because it’s disruptive, forcing turnovers on 20.3% of possessions. But Richardson takes care of the ball and can score from anywhere on the court.
The Rebels also rank a pitiful 318th in rebounding rate, and I expect Richardson to over-index on the glass.
Goldin over 17.5 points (-113): Michigan’s offence is run through a pair of 7-footers in Goldin and Danny Wolf — this seems like a great spot for the former to do damage.
The senior from Russia is averaging 16.8 PPG and has cleared this mark in six of his last nine games. He’s coming off a 23-point outing against the Texas A&M Aggies, who rank eighth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.
And while Auburn’s defence is solid (12th in defensive efficiency), it commits a lot of fouls (18.4/game, 305th in D-1).
Goldin had 11 free-throw attempts against Texas A&M in the second round and is shooting 73.3% from the line this season.
March Madness prop bets made at 1:38 p.m. ET on 03/27/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.