The top four teams are the only ones left standing in March Madness.
The pregame narrative: In Saturday’s first best-on-best battle, I’m riding with the Florida Gators to topple the Auburn Tigers straight up. As for the second game, Kon Knueppel should fill the net even in a defence-first matchup.
Check out my March Madness parlay predictions for the Final Four on Saturday, April 5.
March Madness parlay predictions
•BOOST: Duke -4.5, under 137.5 points, Flagg 20+ points (+633). Bet now
•BOOST: Florida ML, Clayton Jr. & Broome 20+ points each (+578). Bet now
Parlay: Florida ML | Duke/Houston under 140.5 points | Knueppel over 12.5 points (+370)
Florida ML (-148): Back in February, a shorthanded Florida team traveled to Auburn as an 11-point underdog and won, 90-81.
The Gators didn’t have second-leading scorer Alijah Martin (14.5 PPG) that day, but it didn’t matter.
Since then, Florida has rattled off 10 straight wins, which includes running the table at the SEC tournament — arguably as impressive as winning March Madness would be.
Florida and Auburn both rank in the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com, and they both have game-breaking stars (Walter Clayton Jr. and Johni Broome, respectively).
To me, the edge lies in the fact that the Gators earned a relatively comfortable road win against the Tigers already this year, and that it came without Martin.
Florida is 31-2 SU as a favourite. With Martin back, I expect another win for the Gators.
College basketball parlay picks
Duke/Houston under 140.5 points (-155): Duke and Houston rank No. 1 and 2 in NCAA Division I, respectively, in opponent effective field goal percentage.
It’s going to be difficult to buy buckets on Saturday night.
Duke has elite size and can clog up the paint. Given that Houston doesn’t shoot a ton of 3s (273rd in D-I in attempts), that will make for some tough sledding.
Also, the Cougars play at the fifth-slowest pace in the country, and they allow the fewest PPG (58.3). They’ve gone under this total in 12 of 14 games since Feb. 15.
KenPom projects a 132-point total in this matchup. BartTorvik.com projects a 129-point total.
Knueppel over 12.5 points (-177): Although I’m fading offence as a whole in the Houston vs. Duke game, I think a teased-down total for Knueppel is well within reach.
- Knueppel is averaging 14.4 PPG this season.
- He has 13+ points in 25 of 38 games.
- He scored 20+ points in the Sweet 16 (vs. Arizona) and Elite Eight (vs. Alabama).
Cooper Flagg isn’t the only NBA lottery-bound freshman in Duke’s starting lineup. And while opposing teams do their best to slow down the projected No. 1 pick, Knueppel is talented enough to take advantage.
Through four March Madness games, Knueppel is averaging 14.8 PPG on 53.1% shooting (with a 90.0 FT% and 7-for-13 shooting beyond the arc).
March Madness parlay predictions made at 3:35 p.m. ET 04/02/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.