The Toronto Maple Leafs take part in a back-to-back against the Pittsburgh Penguins.
The pregame narrative: Toronto and Pittsburgh both lost yesterday. On Saturday, I’m expecting these teams to play sloppy hockey leading to lots of goals. Mitch Marner struggled on Friday but I believe a bounce back is in order.
Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Penguins for Dec. 7.
Maple Leafs picks vs. Penguins
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Best Bet: Marner to record 2+ points (+155)
I expect Marner to put on a show against a terrible Penguins defence.
Tristan Jarry is likely getting the start for Pittsburgh, but realistically, it doesn’t matter who’s in goal.
The Penguins have allowed the third-most goals above expected (11.74), per Money Puck, and have allowed four or more goals in five of their last seven games.
Now let me turn my attention to Marner. The winger is on a tear right now.
- 2+ points in 10/13 games since Nov. 5
- 2+ points in three straight before Friday’s loss
This run has propelled Marner up to seventh in the NHL in points (36). He’s firing on all cylinders right now, so why not take him at this price?
Key stat: Marner had two points in Toronto’s 4-2 win over the Penguins in October.
Quick pick
Over 6.5 goals (+105): The Leafs lost 3-1 to the Washington Capitals yesterday, and the Pens also went under this total, losing 4-2 to the New York Rangers.
And even though Toronto allows the second-fewest goals per game (2.54), I have reason to believe this game will be high-scoring.
- PIT allows the most goals/game (3.79)
- TOR allows 3.30 goals/game on the road
The Leafs’ goal allowance on the road would be the seventh-worst in the NHL overall.
With Auston Matthews back in the mix, I believe the Leafs can contribute most of this total themselves. But don’t be surprised if Pittsburgh’s offensive talent takes advantage of a fatigued Toronto side.
NHL picks made at 10:53 a.m. ET on 12/07/24.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.