The Toronto Maple Leafs have a showdown at home tonight with the Vegas Golden Knights.
The pregame narrative: Auston Matthews remains sidelined and I like Matthew Knies to continue stepping up in his absence. I’m also backing the over on the game total and taking a shot on a plus-money Mitch Marner prop.
Check out our Maple Leafs picks vs. Golden Knights for the game on Nov. 20.
Maple Leafs picks vs. Golden Knights
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Best Bet: Knies to record a point (-123)
Although Vegas is a great team, it’s not because of its defensive ability.
The Knights score often but sit in the middle of the pack in goals allowed (3.17) per game.
Vegas’ starting goalie hasn’t been confirmed yet but neither guy has been great this season.
- Adin Hill (.885 SV%, 3.16 GAA)
- Ilya Samsonov (.897 SV%, 3.15 GAA)
That’s good news for Knies, who has cemented himself as a top forward for a stacked Leafs team. He has recorded points in three of the last four games.
Knies is playing a career-high 18:24 per game and logged at least 20 minutes of ice time in three straight.
He’ll be on the ice a lot with Toronto’s top forwards, so I love the value here.
Key stat: Knies has points in four of six games since Matthews sustained his injury.
Quick picks
Over 6 goals (-106): I was thinking about taking the Leafs on the moneyline but I couldn’t ignore Vegas’ offensive production and opted for the over instead.
For Toronto, a lot of what I said for Knies applies to the entire team and I’m expecting at least a few goals out of the bunch.
As for the Golden Knights, they pepper their opponents.
- Vegas is third in the NHL in goals per game (4.0)
- The club is sixth in shots/game (31.0)
Jack Eichel (28 points) leads a group that has eight players with double-digit points, and two others sitting on nine.
Toronto is a strong defensive team but surely Vegas can help contribute to this total.
Marner to record 2+ points (+170): This is a play I would risk less on than the first two but I like the price.
It’s no secret that Marner has been cooking while Matthews has been out.
- Marner has 10 points in six games without the captain
- He’s 5-1 against this line over that stretch
The Golden Knights are a good team and things shouldn’t be easy but the Leafs are rolling right now and Marner is the main reason why.
Picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 11/20/24.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.