This week’s marquee SEC matchup pits the No. 8 LSU Tigers against the No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies.
The pregame narrative: TAMU quarterback Conner Weigman returned a couple of games ago, and he’s looked strong enough for me to want the over on his passing yards prop. I’m also targeting LSU’s Kyren Lacy as a plus-money anytime TD scorer.
Check out my top LSU vs. Texas A&M picks for this ranked Week 9 matchup.
LSU vs. Texas A&M picks
Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| LSU vs. TAMU Week 9 picks | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Weigman over 209.5 pass yards | -109 | Add to betslip |
| Lacy anytime TD | +114 | Add to betslip |
| Over 54.5 points | -113 | Add to betslip |
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Best Bet: Weigman over 209.5 passing yards (-109)
Weigman’s redshirt sophomore year got off to a rough start, as he threw two interceptions in a season-opening loss to Notre Dame and injured his throwing shoulder in the process.
He then aggravated that injury the following week and was sidelined for a month.
Fortunately for Aggies fans, Weigman returned just in time to author a blowout win over then-No. 9 Missouri. He wasn’t as sharp in TAMU’s following game against Mississippi State, but the most important thing is that he came out of it healthy.
In two games since returning from injury, Weigman has thrown for 493 yards with a 70.2% completion rate on 10.5 yards per attempt. And he’s gone over this line both times.
The scary part of LSU’s defence is its ability to stop the run, not the pass. The Tigers allow 243.7 pass yards per game, which ranks 102nd in the country.
So although Texas A&M has been a run-heavy team so far — running the ball in 62.6% of its plays — I think a more pass-happy approach will be in order.
Key stat: Five of LSU’s seven opponents have thrown for more than 209.5 passing yards.
Quick pick
Lacy anytime TD (+114): You want to talk about a pass-happy offence? That would succinctly describe Brian Kelly’s bunch from Baton Rouge.
Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier leads the SEC in pass completions, attempts and touchdowns. And though he does well to spread the ball, Lacy is clearly his top target.
Lacy has six TDs, which is twice as many as any other receiver. He’s also seeing 9.9 targets per game, according to Rotowire.
Last year, Lacy was the WR3 at LSU behind Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., yet he still managed to snag seven TDs in 13 games. On Saturday, I expect Lacy to match his 2023 total by finding the end zone again.
Over 54.5 points (-113): This game features two top-50 scoring offences and two top-40 scoring defences … so which side wins?
I’ll roll with the offences, especially now that Weigman is looking comfortable under centre for A&M. And historically, he’s been far better on home soil:
- Home: 67.1% completion rate, 15 TDs, 2 INTs, 8.9 yards/attempt
- Road: 52.7% completion rate, 4 TDs, 4 INTs, 5.9 yards/attempt
The over is 4-2 in TAMU’s past six games, and these teams have combined for 60-plus points in their past two matchups (at TAMU in ’22, at LSU in ’23).
Picks made at 2:20 p.m. on 10/25/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.