Tonight’s matchup between the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens features a sky-high game total, making it a perfect target for TD wagers.
The pregame narrative: Detroit and Baltimore owned the Nos. 1 and 3 scoring offences last year, and they’re averaging a combined 66.5 points this year. The Ravens are 5-point favourites at the time of writing, and this 53-point projected total is the highest of any matchup in Week 3.
Check out our top Lions vs. Ravens SNF TD picks on David Montgomery and Zay Flowers.
Lions vs. Ravens TD picks: Week 3
Best Bet: Montgomery to score a TD (+104)
Montgomery is the No. 2 option in his timeshare with Jahmyr Gibbs, logging a sub-40% snap count in both games so far.
But the powerful running back has led the charge near the goal line, which is what’s important for this wager.
Take a look at how the Lions have distributed their touches within the 20, 10 and 5-yard line:
- Inside 20: Montgomery (7), Gibbs (9)
- Inside 10: Montgomery (4), Gibbs (2)
- Inside 5: Montgomery (3), Gibbs (0)
Detroit has logged a league-best 5.5 red zone scoring attempts per game so far, with seven trips to the red zone at home in Week 2.
Baltimore’s pass defence has been suspect so far, and I expect Jared Goff and Co. to move the ball down the field before turning to the rush attack at the goal line.
Key stat: Montgomery scored in 11 of 16 regular-season games last year.
Monday Night Football TD picks
Flowers to score a TD (+112): Flowers has been a beast through two games so far, catching 14 of 20 targets for 218 yards and a score.
He hasn’t received a red zone target yet, but Baltimore has only opted to throw the ball five times inside the 20-yard line through two games.
That’s bound to change at some point.
Flowers has been Lamar Jackson’s favourite target so far, logging 50.9% of the team’s air yards, while being targeted on 37.7% of all routes run (both rank in the 90th-plus percentile for WRs, per Rotowire).
The Lions have some injuries on defence, with Marcus Davenport out, and Jack Campbell and Kerby Joseph both listed as questionable.
Baltimore should have its fair share of scoring opportunities, and once it’s in the red zone, I believe Flowers will get a few great looks.
Lions vs. Ravens TD picks made at 10:12 a.m. ET on 09/22/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.