The New York Yankees claimed Game 1 of the ALCS last night, and they’ll look to build on that lead Tuesday with their ace on the hill.
The pregame narrative: Gerrit Cole carried some late-summer success into the fall, but he’s still not striking people out at an elite clip. I’m fading his strikeout prop tonight while backing Gleyber Torres to score and Bo Naylor to go hitless.
Check out my Guardians vs. Yankees prop picks for Game 2 of their ALCS matchup on Oct. 15.
Guardians vs. Yankees prop picks
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Best bet: Cole under 5.5 Ks (-136)
In very un-Guardian-like fashion last night, Cleveland struck out 14 times throughout its Game 1 loss to the Yankees. If they pull a stunt like that again, this doesn’t have much hope of cashing.
I’m not counting on a repeat performance, though, and I think Cole can still have a strong outing even if he doesn’t clear this strikeout total.
Why? Well, for one thing, we’ve already seen it done. Cole tossed 6.0 innings of one-hit ball against the Guardians in August, and he only struck out two batters.
In Cole’s two postseason starts, he collected eight Ks over 12.0 innings against the Royals and hit this under both times. The Royals had the third-lowest K rate against righties this year (19.3%), while the Guardians were fourth-lowest (20.0%).
Cole himself has a 22.5% K rate in 142 plate appearances against the Guardians, which is solid but by no means exceptional.
And Cleveland has touched him up at times, posting a .457 SLG as a lineup against him.
I mention the slugging percentage just to say that if Cleveland does get to Cole early, it’d be reasonable for New York to give him a relatively quick hook. After all, nobody in the Yankees’ bullpen has pitched more than once in the past four days.
Key stat: Cole has gone under 5.5 Ks in seven of 10 home outings this season.
Quick picks
Torres over 0.5 runs (+114): When a leadoff hitter has a plus-money price to score, it’s going to at least pique my interest.
Guardians starter Tanner Bibee has a 2.52 ERA over his past seven starts, so he’s not an ideal pitcher to have on the opposite end of this prop. But I like what Torres has been up to lately.
Last night, the middle infielder had a hit, a walk and a run. He’s reached base in every game this postseason (.400 OBP) and has cashed his runs prop in four of five matchups.
In his only prior meeting against Bibee, which came in May 2023, Torres doubled and scored.
Naylor under 0.5 hits (-127): The younger of the two Naylor brothers isn’t in Cleveland’s lineup for his bat.
Bo, unlike Josh, is a defence-first player who hasn’t gotten a handle on big-league pitching yet. But the 24-year-old catcher ranks in the 89th percentile in framing value, per Baseball Savant.
Batting from the left side, Naylor should have a platoon advantage against the right-handed Cole. But Naylor is batting just .202 against RHPs this season.
Naylor is 0-for-13 in the postseason and poses a risk of being pinch-hit for later in the game if the Yankees turn to a lefty.
Picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET 10/15/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.