The PGA Tour heads to a new but familiar venue for the 2025 Genesis Invitational this week.
The latest: Torrey Pines subs in for Riviera Country Club after the Southern California wildfires forced a venue change. Scottie Scheffler is favoured — and Rory McIlroy is right behind him — but I’m looking toward Ludvig Aberg for value alongside three long shots.
Check out my Genesis Invitational predictions for the PGA Tour tournament beginning on Feb. 13.
Genesis Invitational predictions
Go to full Genesis Invitational betting markets.
Best bet: Aberg to win (+2,200) & top-20 finish (-110)
Aberg said Torrey Pines is his “favourite place in the world.”
It sure looked like it after he fired an opening-round 63 at the Farmers Insurance Open a few weeks ago. But then Aberg got so sick that he was apparently throwing up on the course, and finished T42.
That same illness forced him to withdraw from the Pebble Beach Pro-Am the following week.
I won’t let that scare me, though. With some more time off to rest, I expect the Swedish superstar to return in full force at a venue tailor-made for his game.
Torrey Pines is major championship-calibre golf. It’s long and hard, and missing fairways is a big no-no.
Aberg drives the ball incredibly far and incredibly straight, with more oompf than anyone outside of McIlroy. Before his illness, he was on a tear:
- T5 Sentry Tournament of Champions
- 6th Hero World Challenge
- T17 RSM Classic
- 16th Tour Championship
- T2 BMW Championship
If the flu bug sinks me, so be it. But this is a prime spot to back one of the best players in the world at generous odds.
Key stat: Aberg has 10 top-10 finishes and three runner-ups in his last 25 starts.
Quick picks
Sepp Straka to win (+5,000) & top-20 finish (+163): I’ve been banging the Straka drum this season and will keep doing it until he gives me a reason not to.
The Austrian is sizzling with five top-20 finishes in his last six starts. He won the American Express in January and followed that up with T7 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
In the last 20 measured rounds, Straka ranks second in this field in driving accuracy (+12.0%) and strokes gained: approach (+1.32), according to DataGolf.
He hasn’t played here much and missed the cut last year but did finish T16 in 2022. Another good week should be in the cards.
Keegan Bradley to win (+5,500) & top-20 finish (+175): Bradley checks off several boxes this week. He’s a strong driver, is in form and has performed well at Torrey Pines.
- Bradley has picked up strokes off the tee in eight of his last nine starts.
- He has five top-20 finishes, including a win at the BMW Championship, in his last seven starts.
- Bradley finished T15 at the Farmers Insurance Open last year and was runner-up in 2023.
The 2025 Ryder Cup captain has extra motivation to perform this year, stating the only way he would play in the event is if he made it on points.
Bradley is currently 21st but could soar up the rankings with a series of strong finishes.
Daniel Berger to win (+9,000) & top-20 finish (+250): I can’t help myself with this pick.
Berger is one of my favourite players on tour and he’s finally back after two injury-riddled seasons.
The former world No. 12 finished second to Thomas Detry at the WM Phoenix Open, marking his second runner-up in the last five starts. Berger’s bread and butter is accuracy off the tee and strong iron play.
Back when he was playing elite golf he was a mainstay atop the leaderboard in big events. It looks like we’re getting back to that point.
He finished T7 at Torrey Pines when it hosted the U.S. Open in 2021.
Golf picks made at 1:46 p.m. on 02/04/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.