Florida and Auburn meet for the right to represent the SEC in Monday’s college basketball national championship game.
The pregame narrative: You could make a solid argument for either team to advance, but Florida has taken down Auburn once this season already, and it was in a tougher spot. Back the Gators to win alongside prop bets on Walter Clayton Jr. and Chad Baker-Mazara.
Check out my Florida vs. Auburn SGP predictions for their Final Four matchup on April 5.
Florida vs. Auburn predictions
•BOOST: Duke -4.5, under 137.5 points, Flagg 20+ points (+633). Bet now
•BOOST: Florida ML, Clayton Jr. & Broome 20+ points each (+578). Bet now
Parlay: Florida moneyline | Clayton 3+ threes | Baker-Mazara 1+ threes (+300)
Florida moneyline (-148): The Gators were my pre-tournament pick to win it all, and I’m not shying away from them now.
Florida travelled to Auburn on Feb. 8 and picked up a 90-81 victory without Alijah Martin — the team’s second-leading scorer — in the lineup.
The Gators have won 10 straight and have only lost one game in a home or neutral setting all season long. That was back in January, when they lost by one point to the Missouri Tigers.
There aren’t many holes to poke in Auburn’s lineup, which ranks top 10 in KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency metrics.
Florida also sits inside the top 10 for both categories, though, as do Duke and Houston, which round out the Final Four.
A game this close could very well come down to free throws, and Auburn fouls at a very high rate (18.4 per game, 299th in D-1).
NCAA SGP legs
Clayton 3+ threes (-148): I debated backing Clayton on this line as one of my three best prop bets for the Final Four. These odds don’t exactly scream “standalone play,” though, so I decided against it.
But in an SGP? Sign me up.
Clayton has been the star of the tournament so far, averaging 22.2 PPG while shooting 45.2% from 3-point range. He’s coming off a 30-point game against Texas Tech where he shot 3-for-8 from deep and has been living around this number since Feb. 1:
- 2+ threes in 17 of 17 games
- 3+ threes in 11 of 17 games
The dynamic guard has cleared this mark in six of his last seven games and went 4-for-8 from deep against Auburn earlier this season.
Baker-Mazara 1+ threes (-305): I’ll be pretty rattled if Baker-Mazara sinks this SGP.
The third-year guard is a career 39.0% three-point shooter and is averaging 1.5 makes on 4.0 attempts this season.
He’s cleared this mark in five of his last six games and attempted a team-high eight 3s against the Michigan State Spartans in the Elite Eight.
If we get anywhere near that type of volume on Saturday, this should be a breeze.
Florida vs. Auburn predictions made at 10:15 a.m. on 04/04/25
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.