Two AFC East teams heading in different directions battle on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 3.
The pregame narrative: It wasn’t long ago that the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills played for the division to close out the 2023 season. Buffalo won and is 15-4 since, while Miami is 8-11. The Dolphins have gotten shelled in both games to start the year and are double-digit underdogs on TNF.
Check out my Dolphins vs. Bills picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3 on Sept. 18, featuring a parlay on Josh Allen.
Dolphins vs. Bills picks
Best Bet: Bills over 30.5 points (-125)
This is an outrageously high team total, but Miami has played some outrageously bad football.
The Dolphins have given up 33 points in consecutive games to the Daniel Jones-led Indianapolis Colts and the Drake Maye-led New England Patriots.
For context on how bad that is, the New York Giants averaged 15.6 PPG under Jones last year, while Maye’s Patriots averaged 17.9 PPG in games where he started and finished.
That’s 33.5 points combined.
Heading to Orchard Park to take on Allen and the Bills in prime time is a different animal. I wouldn’t be surprised if Buffalo flirted with a 50-burger on Thursday.
- The Bills scored 41 points in their season-opener at home against the Baltimore Ravens’ vaunted defence.
- Dating back to Week 1 of 2024, Buffalo is 11-0 at home (regular season and playoffs) while averaging 33.9 PPG.
Key stat: Miami’s defence ranks dead last in EPA per play through two games, per RBSDM.com.
Thursday Night Football prop pick
Allen over 1.5 passing TDs (-130): I was considering simply recommending Allen over 1.5 passing TDs at -148, but that’s too much juice for my liking.
But the reigning MVP should clear that line with ease against Miami’s defence.
- Allen has averaged 2.05 passing TDs at home since the start of the 2023 season.
- In that span, he is 13-5 against this line. That includes two games against Miami, when he threw seven total TDs.
Dolphins vs. Bills picks made at 1 p.m. ET 09/16/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.