It’s do-or-die time for the New York Yankees, as the Los Angeles Dodgers have a chance to sweep the World Series tonight.
The pregame narrative: Is it finally time for Aaron Judge to make some noise and help save the Yankees’ season? I don’t think so. I’m fading Judge and Luis Gil while backing Mookie Betts to score.
Check out my Dodgers vs. Yankees same-game parlay predictions for Game 4 of the World Series on Oct. 29.
Yankees vs. Dodgers SGP predictions
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Parlay: Gil under 4.5 Ks + Betts over 0.5 runs + Judge under 1.5 bases (+430)
Gil under 4.5 Ks (-182): Another game, another opportunity to fade a Yankees starter on his strikeouts prop.
This bet cashed in the first three games of the series, as the Dodgers struck out only four times against Gerrit Cole, three times against Carlos Rodon and three times against Clarke Schmidt.
L.A.’s 19.4% K rate in the postseason is the second-lowest among all playoff teams. The lineup is littered with tough outs, and the margin for error is nonexistent for Gil and the Yankees.
Gil has a 10.3 K/9 in 37 career starts, so this line would normally be well within reach. But New York manager Aaron Boone will likely have his rookie starter on a short leash in an elimination game.
SGP legs
Betts over 0.5 runs (+110): This pick didn’t cash in last night’s game, but Betts put forth another strong effort that has me going back to the well.
For the 10th time in 14 postseason games, Betts reached base at least twice. He singled and walked.
Right behind him in the order is Freddie Freeman, who’s waltzing to World Series MVP honours. Freeman has a triple and three homers so far in the Fall Classic, which means Betts should have a solid chance to score any time he gets on.
Betts has 12 runs in 14 postseason games and has cashed this bet nine times. He’s 1-for-3 with a double against Gil.
Judge under 1.5 bases (-139): Judge’s curiously dreadful postseason rages on. Mercifully for him, it looks like it’s almost over.
But if tonight is my last time to fade the MLB home run king — who’s turned into an October ogre — I’ll gladly do it.
Since the ALCS, Judge has a 41.7% K rate with only four hits in 30 at-bats. He has a 65% hard-hit rate in that span, per Baseball Savant, but that’s coupled with a .176 xBA and doesn’t impress me.
Throughout the postseason, Judge has gone under 1.5 bases in nine of 12 games, and he’s hitless in three of his past four.
It’s a bullpen game for the Dodgers, which isn’t particularly daunting. But L.A. has proven it can play matchups against Judge and keep him muzzled.
Picks made at 12:20 p.m. on 10/29/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.