Tied at one game apiece, the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets continue the NLCS tonight at Citi Field in Queens.
The pregame narrative: Offence is often difficult to come by in the postseason, but I’m looking for plenty of it on Tuesday. In a +350 SGP, I like Shohei Ohtani and Francisco Lindor to chip in at the plate and am fading Walker Buehler’s strikeout prop.
Check out my Dodgers vs. Mets predictions for Game 3 of the NLCS on Oct. 16.
Dodgers vs. Mets SGP predictions
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Parlay: Over 7.5 runs + Ohtani over 0.5 runs + Lindor over 0.5 hits + Buehler under 5.5 strikeouts (+350)
Over 7.5 runs (-108): This over is 6-1 in Dodgers playoff games so far, which is partially a credit to their stellar offence. But taking the over tonight is also a fade on both starting pitchers.
Buehler has had an atrocious year, and it didn’t age well as time wore on. In his past 10 starts, Buehler has a 6.46 ERA. More importantly, this over has cashed in all 10 of those games.
Don’t discount Luis Severino’s ability to contribute to this run total either, though.
The Dodgers’ current lineup has a .429 SLG against Severino in 108 plate appearances. And Severino has allowed at least three runs in each of his past five starts.
SGP legs
Ohtani over 0.5 runs (-122): I initially had Ohtani over 0.5 hits (-265) in this parlay, but this play provides greater value in a matchup that should feature some offence.
And with the run prop, I’m content to see Ohtani reach base via a hit or a walk. He has almost as many walks (five) as hits (six) so far this postseason, after all.
In his MVP-calibre season with L.A., Ohtani led the majors in runs (134) and total bases (411). He’s cashed this prop in 96 of 166 games (57.8%).
Against Severino, Ohtani is 3-for-6 with a home run, a double and a walk.
Lindor over 0.5 hits (-220): Buehler has been giving out hits to pretty much anyone who wants them. He allowed a .282 BA to righties this year and a .296 BA to lefties.
The switch-hitting Lindor will bat from the left side, where he collected a .277 BA against righties this season. It’s nice to know that Lindor will retain a platoon advantage throughout the game regardless of which hand the opposing pitcher throws from.
Lindor is 8-for-28 (.286) in his past seven games. He’s notched a hit in 111 of 161 (69.0%) games this year.
Buehler under 5.5 strikeouts (-435): Without this final prop, the SGP comes in at +270 odds. I think tacking on a specific fade for Buehler is worth the price boost.
Buehler’s outs prop (over/under 14.5) implies he’s only sticking around for five-ish innings tonight. And there’s no reason to expect him to average more than a strikeout per frame.
The right-hander posted a career-low 7.6 K/9 during the regular season. He followed that with zero Ks over 5.0 innings in his first playoff outing.
To be fair, that playoff start came against the Padres, who had a league-best 17.6% K rate this year. But Buehler’s K rate against the current Mets lineup (18.4%) gives me confidence that he’ll fall below this mark.
Picks made at 9:30 a.m. on 10/16/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.