The final week of college football’s regular season is here, and the best action runs from U.S. Thanksgiving through Saturday night.
The latest: Most of the College Football Playoff spots in the new 12-team system are still up for grabs, which adds an extra layer of intrigue to a slate loaded with rivalry games. From the Egg Bowl and The Game, to the Iron Bowl and Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate, there are plenty of important matchups on deck.
Check out our college football Week 14 betting guide to get ready for this weekend’s action.
College football betting guide: Week 14
Three of the top-10 teams from last week’s CFP rankings went down in Week 13, causing quite a shakeup to the latest playoff picture.
Two teams that seem perfectly safe are the No. 1 Oregon Ducks and the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes.
Both squads are massive favourites in their annual rivalry games this weekend against Washington and Michigan, respectively.
Washington and Michigan were last year’s national championship finalists, but extensive roster turnover has taken the teeth out of both teams. Still, anything goes in a rivalry game.
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Key college football matchups
Oregon State Beavers vs. No. 11 Boise State Broncos
- This game is all about Ashton Jeanty, whose Heisman odds are on the line. Jeanty’s 11-game numbers are insane: 2,164 scrimmage yards, 28 total touchdowns, 7.5 yards per rush.
- Three other running backs have won the Heisman since 2000 (Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram and Derrick Henry), and none of them had more than 2,100 scrimmage yards or 23 TDs.
- Boise also controls its playoff destiny. Wins on Black Friday and in the Mountain West championship game would likely put the Broncos in the No. 4 spot of the College Football Playoff bracket.
- Oregon State’s defence ranks 100th in points allowed (29.5/game) and 102nd in rush yards allowed (178.2/game).
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. No. 6 Georgia Bulldogs
- This should be a blowout, but annual rivalry games can get hairy. And Georgia Tech already has one notable upset on its ledger this year, knocking off then-No. 4 Miami.
- Georgia is 6-0 against Georgia Tech since 2017, but the Yellow Jackets have covered the spread in back-to-back seasons.
- This year, UGA is only 3-8 ATS … including a 1-6 ATS record when favoured by 10 or more points.
No. 16 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 12 Clemson Tigers
- Clemson (9-2) needs help elsewhere to get into the ACC championship game, but a quality win over the Gamecocks would still go a long way to get the Tigers into the CFP.
- South Carolina (8-3), likewise, would put some pressure on the playoff committee with a win. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS as underdogs this year. Their only losses came against three teams ranked inside the top 20 at the time of the game (LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama).
Kansas State Wildcats vs. No. 17 Iowa State Cyclones
- The Big 12 is a mess right now, as the conference has identified 256 tiebreaker scenarios that could be in play depending on how this weekend’s action goes. Iowa State (6-2 conference record) is almost certainly through to the title game with a win, but even that isn’t guaranteed.
- Iowa State is 1-4 ATS in its past five games, losing two of those matchups straight up as the favourite. But the Cyclones are on a four-game ATS win streak against the Wildcats.
- Kansas State (5-3 conference record) lost at Houston earlier this month as a 13-point favourite. By comparison, Iowa State beat Houston, 20-0. Then again, K-State beat Kansas last month while ISU lost to Kansas, 45-36, three weeks ago.
No. 3 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies
- Texas A&M soiled its playoff chances with a loss against unranked Auburn last week. The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their past five games (all as favourites), losing two of those matchups straight up.
- Texas suffered an ugly loss to Georgia last month but has otherwise handled its business in a watered-down SEC schedule. The Longhorns’ matchup against Georgia was their only game against a top-25 school based on the latest AP poll.
- Saturday’s matchup renews an old rivalry between Texas and Texas A&M from their days together in the Big 12. The game was played every year from 1915 through 2011.
- On the injury front, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers is questionable with an ankle injury. He has multiple TD passes in five straight games. Meanwhile, Texas A&M tailback Le’Veon Moss (6.3 yards/rush, 10 TDs) is out with a leg injury.
College football betting guide: Players to watch
WR Cayden Lee (Ole Miss): Mississippi’s top receiving target, Tre Harris, has missed three-plus games with a hamstring injury this year. And when Harris is out, the Rebels’ explosive passing offence tends to run through Lee.
From Oct. 12 through last week, a period in which Harris missed all or part of Ole Miss’ five games, Lee had 28 catches for 493 yards. In six games before that, Lee had just 18 catches for 297 yards.
Mississippi State ranks 127th in total defence, so this should be a matchup for Lee and others to take advantage of.
RB TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State): Henderson has been an efficient running back all year, averaging 7.4 yards per carry. But now his receiving work is ticking up, too, and he looks like the primary goal-line back for the Buckeyes.
Henderson has rushed for 227 yards and two TDs over the past three games (8.7 YPC), adding in eight catches for 67 yards. He’d only had nine catches over the previous eight games combined.
Michigan is known for a stout run defence (3.1 YPC allowed), but the Buckeyes should find ways to get the ball into Henderson’s hands — especially if the game turns into a laugher, as the spread (Ohio State -20.5) indicates.
NCAAF national championship odds
Betting trends
- The Iron Bowl between Alabama and Auburn has featured plenty of offensive fireworks in recent seasons. Overs are 4-2 in their past six meetings, averaging 65.7 points per game. Alabama has averaged 43.2 PPG in six home games this season.
- Should the No. 8 Miami Hurricanes be on upset watch again? Miami has multiple one-score wins as a double-digit favourite this year, and it lost outright as a 9.5-point favourite the last time it played on the road. Syracuse, meanwhile, has four straight-up wins as an underdog this season.
- The Houston vs. BYU matchup is a real battle of scoring styles. Unders are 10-1 in Houston games this year, but overs are 8-3 in BYU games. Eight of the Cougars’ 11 games have finished under Saturday’s projected total (41.5 points).
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.