Category: NHL

The Toronto Maple Leafs get a major piece back in the lineup for Saturday’s game against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The pregame narrative: Auston Matthews returns, but his injury doesn’t make up for some more negative developments for Toronto. With a laundry list of banged-up players, I expect a low-scoring game. Additionally, I’m siding with Tampa Bay to win as a home underdog.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. the Lightning for Nov. 30.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Lightning

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Best Bet: Under 6.5 goals (-117)

On paper, you’d imagine both of these squads being very good over teams.

But that’s not true in the slightest. The under has been the right play for both teams despite the immense offensive star power both squads possess.

Here’s how the Leafs and Lightning have fared on the totals market this season:

• Toronto ranks sixth in unders percentage (59.1%)
• Tampa Bay is 15th in unders percentage (52.3%)

Both are in the upper half of the league in the category.

Toronto is playing a very low-event style of hockey this season, winning with defence and goaltending instead of offence.

• Toronto places 18th in goals per game (2.95)
• Toronto is third in goals against per game (2.59)

The Maple Leafs also have some offensive injuries that add to the appeal of the under.

Yes, Matthews is back, but they’re going to be without some key forwards. Max Domi, Max Pacioretty and Matthew Knies are all on injured reserve while Bobby McMann is day-to-day.

Toronto’s offensive upside is capped with a litany of forward injuries. Expect a low-scoring game on Saturday night.

Key stat: The Maple Leafs have gone under this total in 10 of their last 12 games.

Quick pick

Lightning moneyline (+120): There are a few reasons why I like Tampa Bay to win as a home underdog.

The first is Toronto’s injury list. The team is potentially without four impactful forwards, which places pressure on a squad that doesn’t have much depth.

Additionally, the Bolts have been playing better recently. They’ve won five of their last eight games, scoring wins over top teams like the Winnipeg Jets, New Jersey Devils and Colorado Avalanche.

Tampa Bay rested Andrei Vasilevskiy in last night’s victory over the Predators, which means he likely starts tonight. The star puck-stopper has done very well over his last dozen games, winning seven with a .925 save percentage.

NHL picks made at 12:13 p.m. ET on 11/30/24.

The Toronto Maple Leafs receive a significant boost to their lineup on Saturday with the return of Auston Matthews.

The pregame narrative: Matthews missed nine games for Toronto while tending to an upper-body injury. The team’s captain is back, though, and will aim to help his team beat a familiar foe in the Tampa Bay Lightning. Let’s take a look at his player betting odds for tonight’s game.

Check out our Matthews props for November 30 below.

Auston Matthews props

Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

NHL odds as of 10:18 a.m. ET on 11/30/2024.

It’s been a minute since Matthews suited up for Toronto, so let’s refresh you on how he was doing before his upper-body injury,

The Maple Leafs captain was off to a quiet start by his standards. He had five goals and 11 points through 13 contests. Perhaps this upper-body injury contributed to his slowish start? It’s hard to tell as the team has been very mum on the matter.

Matthews did dress for Toronto’s lone game against Tampa Bay this campaign and it was one of his best performances of the season. He fired off six shots and tallied a goal in 5-2 win.

How should bettors wager on Matthews in his return? See my best bet below.

Best Matthews prop bet

Best Bet: Matthews to score (-106)

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I’ll take the bait.

I’m assuming the Maple Leafs superstar is healthy in this game. Toronto won seven of nine games without him, affording Matthews the luxury to rest without worrying about his team’s spot in the standings.

Although Matthews’ goal and point outputs were underwhelming, he generated a solid amount of shots per game. His 12.4 shots per 60 are only slightly below his 13.0 and 13.1 marks from each of the last two seasons.

The captain’s shot numbers dipped after his first six games, too, which could be related to his injury totals.

• 34 shots in his first six games (5.7 shots per game, three goals)
• 22 shots in his last seven games (3.1 shots per game, two goals)

If Matthews looks more like the player he was at the very beginning of this season, he should be able to pepper Andrei Vaslievskiy (tonight’s presumed starter) and beat him.

Key stat: Matthews has four goals in his last five games against Tampa Bay.

Nearly every NHL team is in action tonight with 15 games set to play.

The pregame narrative: The Colorado Avalanche can’t buy a save and Ivan Barbashev has been on a tear. I’m backing the Vegas Golden Knights forward to notch a point alongside props on Cole Caufield and Sebastian Aho.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Nov. 27.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: Barbashev to record a point (-106)

The Avalanche have a serious goaltending problem.

Colorado is giving up the second-most goals per game (3.77) despite ceding the fourth-fewest shots per game (26.0). Needless to say, the team’s .870 save percentage ranks dead last in the NHL.

Justus Annunen got the call on Monday against the Tampa Bay Lightning and allowed five goals before getting pulled. Alexandar Georgiev started the game before that and gave up four to the Florida Panthers.

Both goaltenders rank outside of the top 44 in GAA and SV% — in a 32-team league.

It’s unclear who will start tonight but that doesn’t really matter to me. The Golden Knights and Barbashev should be licking their chops at the prospect of playing the Avs.

Barbashev has been the league’s most productive skater at even strength with 21 points at 5-on-5. That’s two more than his teammate Jack Eichel (third in NHL) who carries -345 odds to notch a point.

Eichel has 10 more points on the season because Barbashev doesn’t skate on the top power play, so those odds are probably fair, but I just wanted to illustrate how dominant the Russian has been.

Key stat: Barbashev has seven points in his last three games, clearing this mark in each contest.

Quick pick

Caufield to record a point (-155): This is a steep price to pay but I believe it’s worth it against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Elvis Merzlikins is slated to start in goal and he’s been a disaster:

• 3.08 GAA (39th) and .894 SV% (38th)
• 3.58 GAA in November
• 10 goals allowed in last two starts

Caufield has cooled off after an electric October but he’s still netted points in four of his last six games and receives top minutes for the Montreal Canadiens.

He has a point in 13 of 21 games this season.

Aho over 2.5 shots (-136): With American Thanksgiving on the horizon, New York Rangers fans should be giving Igor Shesterkin his flowers.

The Russian’s 2.91 GAA ranks 34th in the league but that’s because he’s been seeing an otherworldly amount of shots.

New York is giving up the second-most shots (33.09) and fourth-most chances (64.8) per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Aho’s 56 shots rank second on the Carolina Hurricanes behind Andrei Svechnikov, and I like the Finn to be trigger-happy tonight.

He recorded at least two shots in four straight, clearing this line twice.

NHL picks made at 12:02 p.m. on 11/27/2024.

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The Toronto Maple Leafs carry their four-game winning streak into Sunrise to take on the defending champion Florida Panthers.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is running hot and Florida is not, losing six of its last seven. But I’m staying away from picking a side tonight and am instead taking the under and fading Carter Verhaeghe.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. the Panthers for the Nov. 27 game on Wednesday night.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Panthers

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Best Bet: Under 6 goals in regulation (-137)

The Maple Leafs have bought into Craig Berube’s system with Auston Matthews sidelined.

Look at how the team has fared without its superstar centre:

• 7-1-0 record
• 1.63 goals allowed per game
• Wins over the Oilers, Bruins, Capitals and Golden Knights

Strong defence, gritty play and elite goaltending have become the norm and that should continue tonight against a tough opponent.

I trust Sergei Bobrovsky to stand tall for the slumping Panthers. He’s been getting shelled lately but has the Leafs’ number, holding them to two or fewer goals in six of the last seven meetings.

And it’s not like Toronto’s offence is humming.

The Buds are averaging north of 3.00 goals per game without Matthews but have only scored nine at even strength, according to Natural Stat Trick. That is tied for the fewest in the league since Nov. 4 alongside the Chicago Blackhawks.

Matthews logged his first practice with the team since returning from Germany on Tuesday, so I can’t picture him playing tonight.

All but two of Toronto’s last eight games have gone under 6.5 goals with the outliers being a pair of 4-3 overtime victories (both pushing against this line).

It’s unclear whether Joseph Woll or Anthony Stolarz will start tonight, but both have been fantastic and I trust them to shut down this Panthers team.

Key stat: There have only been 17 even-strength goals in Toronto’s last eight games (2.12/game).

Quick picks

Verhaeghe under 0.5 points (+107): Woll and Stolarz each rank inside the top four for GAA and top 10 for save percentage.

Verhaeghe is struggling and will have his work cut out for him regardless of who’s between the pipes.

The second-line winger has just three points in his last six games and has been held pointless in six of 11 games this month. His line with Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk has been getting caved in as Verhaeghe is -10 in his last four games.

Toronto has allowed the fewest even-strength goals this month (12) and Verhaeghe doesn’t skate on the top power play. I’ll happily fade him at plus money.

NHL picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET on 11/13/24.