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NHL prop picks Dec. 9: Back Connor Bedard and Nick Suzuki on Monday

Two NHL stars on the rise headline my prop picks for Monday.

The pregame narrative: Connor Bedard has value to get on the score sheet against the struggling New York Rangers. Later on, Nick Suzuki has the chance to excel in a plus matchup.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 9.

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Best bet: Bedard to record a point (-136)

This is a very reasonable price for Chicago’s top point producer.

New York isn’t the team it was at the start of the season. The side has lost seven of its past nine games.

Surprisingly, the problem is on the back end. Over that nine-game run, the Rangers allowed four or more goals on five different occasions.

That includes their 7-5 loss to the Seattle Kraken on Sunday.

Bedard plays on a miserable Blackhawks team, but he’s managed to score 20 points in 27 games this season.

The second-year pro averages 19:35 of ice time and plays on both the first line and first power-play unit.

Bedard will be out there a lot and gets a soft matchup against a fatigued Rangers team.

Key stat: The 2023 first-overall pick has 81 career points in 95 games.

Quick pick

Suzuki over 2.5 shots (+125): Suzuki gets a lot less league-wide attention but he’s putting together quite the season for the Montreal Canadiens.

Montreal’s captain has 28 points in 27 games this season. He may not be the highest-volume shooter, but Monday’s matchup is a good one for any forward.

The Anaheim Ducks allow the most shots per game (33.3).

They have conceded 30+ shots in six of the last seven games.

Anaheim consistently allows teams to pepper its net with shots, so I’m expecting the same tonight for the Habs.

Suzuki has cleared this line in two of the past four and gets a nice plus-money price against the NHL’s most vulnerable team.

Picks made at 9:51 a.m. 12/09/2024.

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NHL prop picks Dec. 8: Bet on Devils’ Jack Hughes to erupt against Avalanche

One of the NHL’s brightest stars and a couple of underrated players make my prop picks list for Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Jack Hughes is on a tear and I expect that to continue against a poor goaltending team in the Colorado Avalanche. Stefan Noesen is producing consistently for the New Jersey Devils, too, and is a nice value to score. Thirdly, I’m picking Cole Perfetti to find the stat sheet.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 8.

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Best bet: Hughes to score 2+ points (+188)

This is a price I can get behind for a player who’s scorching the earth ahead of this contest.

Hughes has been sensational for New Jersey. He’s second on the team with 35 points in 29 games and a good chunk of that production has come recently. The superstar forward has 10 points in his last four contests.

It’s worth noting that Hughes has cashed this prop in each of those outings while six of his 10 points have come on the man advantage.

His, and the team’s, strong power-play results are encouraging to see ahead of this matchup. Colorado ranks a dreadful 27th on the penalty kill (72.6%) this season.

The Avs have struggled to keep the puck out of their net all year. They’re 31st in goals against (3.68), which makes this a great spot to back one of the league’s top forwards.

Key stat: The Avalanche have the worst save percentage (.861) in the NHL.

Quick picks

Noesen to score 1+ points (+100): Noesen doesn’t attract headlines the same way Hughes does, but he’s quietly putting together a solid season.

The veteran forward has 13 goals and 22 points across 29 games this campaign and three points in his last four outings.

What has me most excited about Noesen is his usage:

Noesen skates on New Jersey’s first line alongside Nico Hischier and Timo Meier.
He also plays on the team’s top power play with Hughes and Jesper Bratt.

That kind of deployment keeps Noesen in the offensive mix on most nights. This should be one of those games against an Avs squad that struggles on the penalty kill.

Perfetti to score 1+ points (+100): Perfetti is cold ahead of this contest but I like his prospects of turning things around.

The Winnipeg Jets forward is pointless in his last four games. He’s still tied for seventh in points (17) on a very deep Jets team despite his struggles.

Perfetti continues to get the kind of opportunities, however, that usually lead to point production. He’s on Winnipeg’s second line and first power play.

The latter piques my interest as the Jets battle the Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus is 30th in goals against (3.65) but more importantly, it’s 29th on the penalty kill (71.4%).

This is a nice rebound spot to back Perfetti in.

Picks made at 9:51 a.m. 12/08/2024.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Penguins Dec. 7: Expect a high-scoring game, Mitch Marner to continue producing

The Toronto Maple Leafs take part in a back-to-back against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The pregame narrative: Toronto and Pittsburgh both lost yesterday. On Saturday, I’m expecting these teams to play sloppy hockey leading to lots of goals. Mitch Marner struggled on Friday but I believe a bounce back is in order.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Penguins for Dec. 7.

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Best Bet: Marner to record 2+ points (+150)

I expect Marner to put on a show against a terrible Penguins defence.

Tristan Jarry is likely getting the start for Pittsburgh, but realistically, it doesn’t matter who’s in goal.

The Penguins have allowed the third-most goals above expected (11.74), per Money Puck, and have allowed four or more goals in five of their last seven games.

Now let me turn my attention to Marner. The winger is on a tear right now.

2+ points in 10/13 games since Nov. 5
2+ points in three straight before Friday’s loss

This run has propelled Marner up to seventh in the NHL in points (36). He’s firing on all cylinders right now, so why not take him at this price?

Key stat: Marner had two points in Toronto’s 4-2 win over the Penguins in October.

Quick pick

Over 6 goals (-112): The Leafs lost 3-1 to the Washington Capitals yesterday, and the Pens pushed on this total, losing 4-2 to the New York Rangers.

And even though Toronto allows the second-fewest goals per game (2.54), I have reason to believe this game will be high-scoring.

PIT allows the most goals/game (3.79)
TOR allows 3.30 goals/game on the road

The Leafs’ goal allowance on the road would be the seventh-worst in the NHL overall.

With Auston Matthews back in the mix, I believe the Leafs can contribute most of this total themselves. But don’t be surprised if Pittsburgh’s offensive talent takes advantage of a fatigued Toronto side.

NHL picks made at 12:33 a.m. ET on 12/07/24.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Penguins Dec. 7: Expect a high-scoring game, Mitch Marner to continue producing

The Toronto Maple Leafs take part in a back-to-back against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The pregame narrative: Toronto and Pittsburgh both lost yesterday. On Saturday, I’m expecting these teams to play sloppy hockey leading to lots of goals. Mitch Marner struggled on Friday but I believe a bounce back is in order.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Penguins for Dec. 7.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Penguins

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Best Bet: Marner to record 2+ points (+155)

I expect Marner to put on a show against a terrible Penguins defence.

Tristan Jarry is likely getting the start for Pittsburgh, but realistically, it doesn’t matter who’s in goal.

The Penguins have allowed the third-most goals above expected (11.74), per Money Puck, and have allowed four or more goals in five of their last seven games.

Now let me turn my attention to Marner. The winger is on a tear right now.

2+ points in 10/13 games since Nov. 5
2+ points in three straight before Friday’s loss

This run has propelled Marner up to seventh in the NHL in points (36). He’s firing on all cylinders right now, so why not take him at this price?

Key stat: Marner had two points in Toronto’s 4-2 win over the Penguins in October.

Quick pick

Over 6.5 goals (+105): The Leafs lost 3-1 to the Washington Capitals yesterday, and the Pens also went under this total, losing 4-2 to the New York Rangers.

And even though Toronto allows the second-fewest goals per game (2.54), I have reason to believe this game will be high-scoring.

PIT allows the most goals/game (3.79)
TOR allows 3.30 goals/game on the road

The Leafs’ goal allowance on the road would be the seventh-worst in the NHL overall.

With Auston Matthews back in the mix, I believe the Leafs can contribute most of this total themselves. But don’t be surprised if Pittsburgh’s offensive talent takes advantage of a fatigued Toronto side.

NHL picks made at 10:53 a.m. ET on 12/07/24.

NHL prop picks Dec. 6: Back Boldy, Cuylle on Friday Night

There are only six NHL games today but I found two player props worth taking.

The pregame narrative: Will Cuylle headlines the picks as the sophomore winger has been hot for the New York Rangers. I’m also backing Matthew Boldy’s shots prop against the Anaheim Ducks.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 6.

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Best bet: Cuylle to record a point (+100)

Cuylle has found his groove in his second year with the Rangers.

The former Windsor Spitfire recorded a lousy 21 points in 81 games last year but has certainly turned things around this season.

Through 24 games, Cuylle has 20 points, and head coach Peter Laviolette is trusting the 22-year-old with more playing time.

Over Cuylle’s last four games, his average ice time has spiked drastically:

First 20 games: 14:04
Last 4 games: 18:06

A four-minute increase is massive for a young player on a contending team. He’s currently on the third line and second power-play unit, and with his recent play, I could see a promotion shortly.

Cuylle has produced at a point-per-game pace in his last 11 outings, with a shooting percentage of 23.8% over that stretch.

For context, he had a 10.9% shooting percentage last season.

Key stat: The Pittsburgh Penguins are tied for most goals allowed per game in the NHL (3.78).

Quick pick

Boldy over 3.5 shots (-154): Anaheim, surprisingly, have allowed the seventh-fewest goals this season despite some alarming statistical categories.

32nd in shots against/game (33.3)
24th in penalty kill percentage (75.8%)

Boldy has been nearly a point-per-game player this season, playing big-time minutes on Minnesota’s top forward line and power play.

The American averages the sixth-most shots per game (3.72) in the league and has cleared this mark in four of the last five games.

The Ducks also allow the most high-danger chances per 60, per Natural Stat Trick, adding additional incentive for the winger to keep firing the puck.

Picks made at 2:03 p.m. 12/06/2024.

NHL prop picks Dec. 6: Back Boldy, Cuylle on Friday Night

There are only six NHL games today but I found two player props worth taking.

The pregame narrative: Will Cuylle headlines the picks as the sophomore winger has been hot for the New York Rangers. I’m also backing Matthew Boldy’s shots prop against the Anaheim Ducks.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 6.

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Best bet: Cuylle to record a point (+123)

Cuylle has found his groove in his second year with the Rangers.

The former Windsor Spitfire recorded a lousy 21 points in 81 games last year but has certainly turned things around this season.

Through 24 games, Cuylle has 20 points, and head coach Peter Laviolette is trusting the 22-year-old with more playing time.

Over Cuylle’s last four games, his average ice time has spiked drastically:

First 20 games: 14:04
Last 4 games: 18:06

A four-minute increase is massive for a young player on a contending team. He’s currently on the third line and second power-play unit, and with his recent play, I could see a promotion shortly.

Cuylle has produced at a point-per-game pace in his last 11 outings, with a shooting percentage of 23.8% over that stretch.

For context, he had a 10.9% shooting percentage last season.

Key stat: The Pittsburgh Penguins are tied for most goals allowed per game in the NHL (3.78).

Quick pick

Boldy over 3.5 shots (-125): Anaheim, surprisingly, have allowed the seventh-fewest goals this season despite some alarming statistical categories.

32nd in shots against/game (33.3)
24th in penalty kill percentage (75.8%)

Boldy has been nearly a point-per-game player this season, playing big-time minutes on Minnesota’s top forward line and power play.

The American averages the sixth-most shots per game (3.72) in the league and has cleared this mark in four of the last five games.

The Ducks also allow the most high-danger chances per 60, per Natural Stat Trick, adding additional incentive for the winger to keep firing the puck.

Picks made at 12:01 p.m. 12/06/2024.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Capitals Dec. 6: Back Washington on puck line, Matthew Knies to produce

Two division-leading teams meet in Toronto tonight when the Maple Leafs host the Washington Capitals.

The pregame narrative: Toronto (16-7-2) and Washington (17-6-2) top the Atlantic and Metropolitan divisions, respectively. I’ll take the Capitals to cover the puck line and will also back Matthew Knies to record a point.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Capitals for Dec. 6.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Capitals

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Best Bet: Capitals +1 (-129)

The Capitals rarely lose by margin. Check out their stats over the last 12 games:

8-2-2 record
+19 goal differential
Zero losses by 2+ goals

Washington just had a four-game losing streak snapped by the San Jose Sharks, 2-1, in overtime. Before that, it had beaten powerhouses like the New Jersey Devils, Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers.

The team is receiving strong goaltending and finding ways to score even with Alex Ovechkin sidelined.

Toronto has won 10 of its last 12 games with a 4-3 overtime win against Washington mixed in. But the squad has only covered a -1.5 puck line in three of its past nine games, and things shouldn’t come easy tonight.

At the time of writing — 10:30 a.m. ET on Friday — neither team has confirmed a goaltender.

But it would make a lot of sense for Washington to start Logan Thompson tonight and save Charlie Lindgren for the downtrodden Montreal Canadiens tomorrow.

Thompson is 10-1-2 with a 2.52 goals allowed average and a .913 save percentage.

Key stat: The Capitals are 17-4-4 against a +1 line this season.

Quick pick

Knies over 0.5 points (-134): Knies is having a breakout season and I want in.

The big winger has 10 goals and 16 points through 23 games and is on pace to smash his previous bests of 15 and 35 (both last season in 80 GP).

Knies has points in seven of his last 10 games and five of his last six. But most importantly, he has the luxury of playing alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, who each carry -305 odds to score tonight.

Logging minutes on Toronto’s top line is a boon for anyone, and Knies perfectly fits the role of a player who can retrieve the puck to set up goals.

NHL picks made at 10:13 a.m. ET on 12/06/24.

NHL prop picks Dec. 5: Back Necas, Stutzle to record a power-play point

I’ve got three NHL prop picks from Thursday’s loaded nine-game slate.

The pregame narrative: Martin Necas is thriving and his Carolina Hurricanes are up against a Colorado Avalanche squad with brutal goaltending. I also have plays on Tim Stutzle and Connor McDavid.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 5.

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Best bet: Necas to record a power-play point (+155)

Necas is tied for the league lead in points with Kirill Kaprizov and Nathan MacKinnon heading into tonight’s action.

Let’s talk about contracts for a second. Carolina’s forward is making $6.5 million AAV, while Kaprizov and MacKinnon are making $9 million and $12.6 million, respectively. Give Huriccanes’ Eric Tulsky a raise because that’s value right there.

Necas has been on an absolute tear recently picking up 15 points in his last 11 games, with nine coming on the man advantage.

Carolina has been a force to be reckoned with at home this season. It has a 9-3-0 record at the Lenovo Center and scored 51 of its 93 goals at home.

Colorado has the sixth-worst penalty kill in the NHL, operating at just 73.1%. Carolina’s power play success rate is over 27%, good for fourth in the league.

Key stat: The Avalanche have allowed 3.73 goals per game this year, which is the second-most in the NHL.

Quick picks

Stutzle to record a power-play point (+145): Similar to the Canes, The Ottawa Senators’ home/away splits indicate more success at home.

Home: 6-5-1 record, 3.75 goals/game
Away: 4-7-1 record, 2.50 goals /game

The German star has been scorching hot as of late, racking up 11 points in his last 10 games.

Despite its lacklustre start to the season, Ottawa’s power play is third in the league (28.1%).

Stutzle has relished playing Detroit, with six goals and eight assists in 10 games against the Atlantic Division rivals.

The Wings have been dreadful on the penalty kill this season, operating at a league-worst 65.3%.

McDavid over 3.5 shots (-112): I made this a play back on Tuesday, and I have no reason to steer away from it tonight.

Edmonton’s captain has been a shots-on-goal machine this season averaging 3.77 per game, fifth most in the NHL.

The Columbus Blue Jackets have the fifth-worst penalty kill in the NHL, which bodes well with this play, as McDavid leads the Oilers in man advantage time on ice.

There were zero penalties called in the Oilers’ previous game, but I’d be shocked if that happened again.

McDavid has cleared this mark in nine of his last 11 games.

Picks made at 1:34 p.m. 12/05/2024.

NHL prop picks Dec. 5: Back Necas, Stutzle to record a power-play point

I’ve got three NHL prop picks from Thursday’s loaded nine-game slate.

The pregame narrative: Martin Necas is thriving and his Carolina Hurricanes are up against a Colorado Avalanche squad with brutal goaltending. I also have plays on Tim Stutzle and Connor McDavid.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 5.

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Best bet: Necas to record a power-play point (+150)

Necas is tied for the league lead in points with Kirill Kaprizov and Nathan MacKinnon heading into tonight’s action.

Let’s talk about contracts for a second. Carolina’s forward is making $6.5 million AAV, while Kaprizov and MacKinnon are making $9 million and $12.6 million, respectively. Give Huriccanes’ Eric Tulsky a raise because that’s value right there.

Necas has been on an absolute tear recently picking up 15 points in his last 11 games, with nine coming on the man advantage.

Carolina has been a force to be reckoned with at home this season. It has a 9-3-0 record at the Lenovo Center and scored 51 of its 93 goals at home.

Colorado has the sixth-worst penalty kill in the NHL, operating at just 73.1%. Carolina’s power play success rate is over 27%, good for fourth in the league.

Key stat: The Avalanche have allowed 3.73 goals per game this year, which is the second-most in the NHL.

Quick picks

Stutzle to record a power-play point (+145): Similar to the Canes, The Ottawa Senators’ home/away splits indicate more success at home.

Home: 6-5-1 record, 3.75 goals/game
Away: 4-7-1 record, 2.50 goals /game

The German star has been scorching hot as of late, racking up 11 points in his last 10 games.

Despite its lacklustre start to the season, Ottawa’s power play is third in the league (28.1%).

Stutzle has relished playing Detroit, with six goals and eight assists in 10 games against the Atlantic Division rivals.

The Wings have been dreadful on the penalty kill this season, operating at a league-worst 65.3%.

McDavid over 3.5 shots (-106): I made this a play back on Tuesday, and I have no reason to steer away from it tonight.

Edmonton’s captain has been a shots-on-goal machine this season averaging 3.77 per game, fifth most in the NHL.

The Columbus Blue Jackets have the fifth-worst penalty kill in the NHL, which bodes well with this play, as McDavid leads the Oilers in man advantage time on ice.

There were zero penalties called in the Oilers’ previous game, but I’d be shocked if that happened again.

McDavid has cleared this mark in nine of his last 11 games.

Picks made at 12:03 p.m. 12/05/2024.

NHL prop picks Dec. 4: Back Ivan Barbashev, fade Steven Stamkos on Wednesday

There are only four NHL games tonight but I found a pair of player props worth taking.

The pregame narrative: The Anaheim Ducks have given up their fair share of scoring chances, and Ivan Barbashev has been lighting the lamp. I’m also fading Steven Stamkos against his hometown team.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 4.

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Best bet: Barbashev to record a point (-130)

In his ninth NHL season, Barbashev is having a career year.

The Russian forward has 28 points in 26 games (1.07 PPG) which is well above his standard. Going into this season, he averaged a scanty 0.46 PPG.

He plays on the top line with one of the best players in the league, Jack Eichel, as well as the second power-play unit.

And now Barbashev has a top-tier matchup against the inferior Ducks, who rank:

32nd in shots on goal allowed per game (33.4)
25th in penalty kill percentage (75%)

The Golden Knights, meanwhile, are a top-10 team in almost every offensive category:

Seventh in goals per game (3.5)
Sixth in power play percentage (27.4%)
Sixth in shooting percentage (11.8%)

Anaheim has allowed three or more goals in eight of its last 10 home games dating back to Nov. 3.

Key stat: Barbashev has 11 points in his last seven games.

Quick pick

Stamkos not to record a point (-112): The Predators were one of the most active franchises in the off-season but their new additions haven’t been performing.

In particular, former Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault has just 12 points in 25 games this year. Stamkos has been over a point per game in his career but he has just 13 points to start the campaign.

I’m sure both players are due for some positive regression but tonight isn’t an ideal matchup to heat up.

Craig Berube’s coaching style is something Toronto Maple Leafs fans are not used to seeing, but it works.

The Leafs are scoring fewer goals per game (3.08 compared to last season’s 3.51) but are also defending at an extremely high level.

Toronto is tied for the second-fewest goals allowed (2.54) and has the eighth-best penalty kill (82.4%). Nashville is last in the NHL in goals per game (2.32) and shooting percentage (7.9%).

I expect a warm welcome for the Markham native when he gets introduced tonight, but his stat sheet won’t be as pleasing.

Picks made at 2:55 p.m. on 12/4/24.