Category: NBA

A contender matches up with a pretender on Friday as the Cleveland Cavaliers get set to face the Philadelphia 76ers.

The pregame narrative: Cleveland lost two nights ago in Houston but should have a much softer landing in Philly. I like the Cavs to cover an alt spread, Donovan Mitchell to can a few 3s and Tyrese Maxey to stay hot as a scorer.

Check out my Cavaliers vs. 76ers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 24.

Cavaliers vs. 76ers predictions

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Parlay: Cavaliers -7.5 + Mitchell over 2.5 threes + Maxey over 26.5 points (+290)

Cavaliers -7.5 (-205): If you’re a Sixers fan, just be thankful that the 2025 first-round pick is top-six protected.

Because if things continue trending the way they are right now, an upper-tier lottery pick is absolutely within reach.

Philadelphia (15-27 SU, 14-28 ATS) is on a nine-game ATS losing skid that includes eight outright losses. The Sixers have lost their past five games by a combined 84 points.

Bettors can take comfort in this alt spread by knowing that Cleveland (36-7 SU, 29-14 ATS) has covered the number in both matchups against Philly this year.

Also, keep in mind that the Sixers tend to fold when they’re supposed to. They own a 6-16-2 ATS record as underdogs, per Team Rankings.

SGP legs

Mitchell over 2.5 threes (-250): Coming off a 1-for-8 shooting performance from deep, Mitchell should bounce back tonight.

He torched Philly in both prior matchups this season, canning 9-of-23 threes (39.1%) and cashing this bet both times.

Mitchell isn’t just a volume shooter, but the volume certainly doesn’t hurt.

• He’s averaging 9.1 attempted threes per game (12th in the NBA).

• Mitchell has 3+ threes in 17/22 games on 40.2% shooting since Dec. 1.

Another way to contextualize Mitchell’s shot volume is this: He’s attempted seven-plus 3s in 35 of 41 games. Any time he’s at or above that amount, I’ll feel good about this pick.

Maxey over 26.5 points (-167): Even if the Cavs win comfortably, Maxey should make his mark. He plays huge minutes and takes a bunch of shots, and frankly, the Sixers don’t have a reasonable alternative.

Joel Embiid rarely plays, Jared McCain is out for the year, and Paul George hasn’t performed as advertised.

The result? A 30.0% usage rate for Maxey, which is the 11th-highest in the NBA (minimum 20 games played).

Maxey is earning his opportunities right now, scoring over 26.5 points in eight straight games. He also cashed this bet against the Cavs on Dec. 21 while shooting 5-of-10 from beyond the arc.

Without Embiid, Maxey is averaging 27.8 PPG this season, clearing this total in 16 of 25 games.

Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET 01/24/2025

I’ve grabbed one NBA prop bet apiece from Friday night’s three-game slate.

The pregame narrative: LaMelo Ball shoots a lot, and he’ll face a weak opponent tonight … but I still think fading him is the right call. I also have plus-money plays on Tyrese Maxey and Zach Edey.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 24.

Best NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Ball under 31.5 points (-112)

Ball has the confidence and the shot volume to go nuclear on any given night.

But generally speaking, the stars would really have to align for me to bet him to clear a points prop this high. And I don’t view tonight’s matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers as that kind of situation.

• For one thing, Ball (wrist) is listed as questionable on the injury report.

• Tonight’s projected total for Blazers/Hornets is 220.5 points, which is the lowest total of the night. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in possessions per game.

• With or without Brandon Miller, Ball isn’t hitting this over very often.

Let’s go a bit deeper on that third point. With Miller (wrist) sidelined due to injury, Ball theoretically has more opportunities to shoot.

Then again, without Miller, it’s a lot easier for opposing defences to opt to double-team Ball. And his numbers reflect that:

• With Miller (20 games): 30.1 PPG, 24.9 FGA, 42.4 FG%

• Without Miller (9 games): 26.6 PPG, 21.9 FGA, 40.6 FG%

Portland is a bad team, but it can dedicate enough defensive resources to Ball to keep him under this lofty total.

Key stat: Ball has gone under 31.5 points in 18 of 29 games this year, including seven of nine without Miller.

Quick picks

Top point scorer – Maxey (+110): This is somewhat unconventional, but I really like Maxey as the top point scorer in tonight’s Cleveland Cavaliers versus Philadelphia 76ers matchup.

With Joel Embiid operating in milk carton mode this year, Maxey has been left to pick up the slack most nights. And that’s exactly what he’s done — especially in January.

• Maxey has been the 76ers’ leading scorer in eight straight games, averaging 30.6 PPG in that span.

• He was the game’s top scorer in six of those eight matchups.

• Without Embiid, Maxey is averaging 27.8 PPG and has 30+ points in 9/25 games.

The Cavaliers are a much deeper squad, which is why they sit atop the Eastern Conference. They don’t need any individual player to go off the way Maxey typically needs to.

In January, Maxey is averaging 27.6 PPG. The highest scorer on the Cavs this month is Darius Garland at 23.4 PPG.

Edey over 7.5 rebounds (+106): This line used to be a cinch for Edey, but he’s seeing far fewer minutes right now than earlier in the year — and that’s been a problem.

Still, in the right matchup, I see some value in taking a flier on the ginormous Canadian rookie.

• Edey is averaging 7.2 rebounds this year.

• The New Orleans Pelicans (Edey’s opponent tonight) allow the most rebounds per game to opposing centres (17.4), per Betting Pros.

Keep in mind that Edey has gone under 7.5 rebounds in nine of his past 10 games. He’s also averaging just 17.8 minutes in that span despite starting nine of those matchups.

In 20 games before that, Edey averaged 8.0 rebounds in 21.9 minutes.

He had nine boards in his lone matchup against the Pelicans on Dec. 27, so hopefully the Memphis Grizzlies give him enough run tonight.

Picks made at 9:35 a.m. ET on 01/24/2025.

The NBA’s two most iconic franchises meet for one of their biannual matchups on Thursday night at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.

The pregame narrative: LeBron James remains a steady scorer for the Lakers, and I expect him to at least hit the 20-point milestone tonight. I’m also backing player props on Jrue Holiday and Derrick White for this +370 ticket.

Check out my Celtics vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 23.

Celtics vs. Lakers predictions

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Parlay: Under 225.5 points + LeBron over 19.5 points + Holiday over 3.5 rebounds + White over 1.5 threes (+370)

Under 225.5 points (-220): The Lakers have hit this under in five of their past six home games. And given how unders-friendly the Celtics have been on the road, I think this is a worth alt total to take.

Unders are 15-6-0 (71.4%) when Boston plays on the road this season, per Team Rankings. That’s the highest rate in the NBA.

The Celtics did sneak past this total last night in a 117-113 win over the Clippers, but perhaps the back-to-back will slow their scoring pace on Thursday.

Boston has hit the under in eight of 11 games this season when playing with a rest disadvantage.

SGP legs

LeBron over 19.5 points (-225): LeBron’s scoring average is at a 20-year low (not an exaggeration), but he’s still putting up 23.7 points per game.

His ceiling as a scorer isn’t nearly as high as it used to be, but one of LeBron’s greatest accomplishments has been his ability to maintain a steady floor of production.

• LeBron has 20+ points in 25/38 games this year.

• He’s averaging 25.9 PPG since Dec. 4, scoring 18+ points in 17/17 games in that span.

Boston has a top-five defensive rating and is a tough matchup for most. But the King tends to get his. He’s cashed this prop in five of six games against the Celtics since the 2020-21 season.

Holiday over 3.5 rebounds (-186): Holiday missed last night’s game with a shoulder injury, so there’s no guarantee he’ll be on the floor tonight. As of this writing, the Celtics hadn’t yet released their Thursday injury report.

If Holiday does play, though, he should be the freshest guy on the team. And he’ll be in a great spot to hit this rebound total.

• Holiday has 4+ rebounds in 8/9 games since Jan. 3.

• He’s averaging 4.4 RPG this year.

• He’s cashed this bet in 6/6 games vs. Los Angeles since the 2021-22 season.

White over 1.5 threes (-420): It’s been an atrocious stretch of 3-point shooting for White, who owns a 23.5 3PT% over his past eight games.

Still, his shot volume is so high that canning a pair of 3s should be a nightly occurrence.

White has cashed this bet in four straight games despite the nightmarish efficiency. And on the season, he’s gone over 1.5 threes in 35 of 42 matchups.

If you remove this leg, the SGP odds sink from +370 to +245. With that in mind, I’m happy to tack it on.

Picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET 01/23/2025

From early afternoon through the night, I’ve got three NBA prop bets to cover Thursday’s action.

The pregame narrative: Victor Wembanyama is the headliner of today’s NBA matchup in France, and I expect him to put on a defensive masterclass for his countrymen. In the evening, look for Daniel Gafford to capitalize in a plus matchup and for Zach LaVine to rain 3s.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 23.

Best NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Gafford to record a double-double (+105)

For a second consecutive night, I’m targeting a starting centre in a favourable matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

What makes OKC, the league’s No. 1 team, so favourable? It’s the lack of size brought on by injuries to Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Without them, the Thunder’s biggest player is 6-foot-8 forward Jaylin Williams.

Last night, Utah Jazz centre Walker Kessler took advantage of the size mismatch by putting up 17 points and 15 rebounds — far above his season averages.

Tonight, I think the 6-foot-10 Gafford can do similar damage.

Gafford has only re-entered the Dallas Mavericks’ starting lineup because of an injury to Dereck Lively. In four games since then, he’s put up excellent numbers:

• 20.0 PPG
• 11.3 RPG
• 76.2 FG%
• Three double-doubles

The catch is that Gafford’s only game in that stretch without a double-double came against the Thunder (eight points, six rebounds). But that’s because foul trouble restricted him to just 20 minutes of action.

Gafford has played 30-plus minutes in the three other recent starts, and a similar workload should be enough for him to cash this bet.

Key stat: OKC allows the third-most rebounds per game (46.4) in the NBA.

Quick picks

Wembanyama over 4.5 steals/blocks (-141): Thursday’s matchup for Wembanyama is more of a home game than any matchup he’s had in San Antonio, as his Spurs take on the Indiana Pacers in Paris.

Wemby’s prop markets are pretty juiced up for this 2 p.m. ET tip-off, but I’m willing to pay the price in his steals/blocks (i.e., “stocks”) market.

The heavy favourite to win Defensive Player of the Year is leading the league in blocks (4.0), and he also averages 1.1 steals per game.

Over his past 16 matchups, Wembanyama has cashed this bet 12 times while averaging 5.8 stocks.

Indiana plays at the eighth-fastest pace in the NBA (100.5 possessions/game). More possessions means more opportunities for Wemby to be a menace in front of the French faithful.

LaVine over 2.5 threes (-137): LaVine’s days with the Chicago Bulls could be numbered as the trade deadline looms. If a deal does happen, his talent as a 3-point shooter will be a key reason why.

The 11-year vet has always been a solid shooter from deep, but he’s found a new level this year. He’s averaging 3.2 makes on an NBA-high 45.0% shooting.

Coming off a 5-for-12 effort from beyond the arc on Monday (vs. the Clippers), LaVine has now cashed this bet in 19 of his past 28 games.

Tonight he’ll face the Golden State Warriors, who allow 3.1 threes per game to opposing small forwards (fifth-most in the NBA, per Betting Pros).

Picks made at 9:35 a.m. ET on 01/23/2025.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are massive home favourites on Wednesday night against the woeful Utah Jazz.

The pregame narrative: In a game with significant blowout potential, I’m looking for B- and C-list players to make some noise. My +340 SGP features player props for Walker Kessler, Jaylin Williams and Luguentz Dort.

Check out my Jazz vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 22.

Jazz vs. Thunder predictions

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Parlay: Kessler over 19.5 points/rebounds + Williams over 6.5 rebounds + Dort 2+ threes (+340)

Kessler over 19.5 points/rebounds (-120): I’m fascinated by the size mismatch that Kessler will have tonight, and I expect the seven-footer to take advantage.

With both Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren hurt, the Thunder don’t have a rotation player taller than 6-foot-8. That might be a problem.

Especially when you consider that Kessler is playing stellar basketball right now. Check out his numbers over the past 10 games:

• 12.9 PPG
• 12.4 RPG
• 76.7 FG%
• 20+ pts/reb in 8/10 games

In a blowout loss against the Thunder in December (when Hartenstein was healthy), Kessler racked up 17 points on 6-of-7 shooting and added 11 rebounds .

SGP legs

Williams over 6.5 rebounds (-118): So which undersized OKC player is drawing the short straw of matching up with Kessler? That appears to be 6-foot-8 power forward Jaylin Williams.

Though undersized in height, Williams is listed at 250 pounds, so he’s not exactly “small” as a rebounder. And surely Kessler can’t grab all the boards under the net, right?

Williams has drawn into the starting lineup in three straight games due to OKC’s frontcourt injuries. He’s topped 26 minutes in back-to-back games — for the first time this season — and collected 18 rebounds in those matchups.

The third-year forward has cashed this bet in four of his past six games.

Dort 2+ threes (-315): Sometimes you shoot and shoot, and you come up empty. That’s what happened to Dort three nights ago in a scoreless showing against the Brooklyn Nets (0-for-5 from 3-point range).

It really doesn’t happen often, though, especially given Dort’s typical shooting volume beyond the arc.

The Montreal native is shooting a team-high 41.7% from deep on 5.6 attempts per game.

• Dort has 2+ threes in 25/41 games.

• In his past 11 games, he’s averaging 2.9 makes on 50.0% shooting beyond the arc.

Utah is a great team for Dort to bounce back against. The Jazz allow the third-most 3s per game to their opponents (14.4).

Picks made at 3:40 p.m. ET 01/22/2025