The Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers re-ignite their rivalry on Tuesday night.
The pregame narrative: Only one game separates Milwaukee (36-27) and Indiana (35-28) in the standings coming down the home stretch. The Bucks have won both meetings against the Pacers this season, and I expect them to pick up another W behind Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Check out my Bucks vs. Pacers SGP predictions for March 11.
Bucks vs. Pacers predictions
Parlay: Bucks ML | Giannis 30+ points | Nesmith 2+ threes (+325)
Bucks moneyline (-148): This seems like a solid spot to back Milwaukee. The squad enters this contest coming off consecutive losses but had won eight of nine before that.
Take a look at how the Bucks have performed following the all-star break:
- 7-3 record
- +6.0 net rating (8th in the NBA)
- 108.8 defensive rating (3rd)
A big storyline worth monitoring is the availability of Tyrese Haliburton (questionable), who has missed the last three games with a hip injury.
Indiana lost all three of those games, and if he’s out again, bettors should expect the line to move in Milwaukee’s favour. But I like this wager even if Haliburton plays, considering his recent struggles against the Bucks.
Haliburton has averaged 17.4 points on 41.1% shooting in his last five games versus Milwaukee.
The Bucks beat the Pacers twice this season by a combined 20 points with Haliburton in the lineup.
NBA SGP legs
Giannis 30+ points (-190): All we’re asking out of Giannis tonight is an average performance in an A-plus matchup.
The Greek Freak is averaging 30.1 PPG this season (second in the NBA) and has cleared this line in three straight games.
If you think that’s impressive, check out what he’s done in his last 10 games against the Pacers:
- 38.2 PPG
- 64.8% shooting
- 30+ points in 8 of 10 games
- 40+ points three times
I expect Giannis to feast once again versus a Pacers team allowing the third-most PPG to power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.
Nesmith 2+ threes (-139): Backing Aaron Nesmith to nail a pair of 3s more than doubles this wager’s odds from +128 to +325.
And I don’t think it’s a huge ask considering the small forward’s form and Milwaukee’s defensive tendencies.
- Nesmith is averaging 2.6 threes per game on 40.6% shooting since the all-star break.
- In that span, he is 8-2 vs. this line.
- Milwaukee is allowing the 6th-most 3s per game (39.1).
Nesmith missed both games against the Bucks this year but has been productive against them in the past, averaging 2.3 threes against them on 47.7% shooting since joining the Pacers (nine-game sample).
Bucks vs. Pacers predictions made at 10:00 a.m. ET on 03/11/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.