A pair of rookie quarterbacks meet on Thursday Night Football as the New Orleans Saints host the Denver Broncos.
The pregame narrative: I’ve got a prop bet on both QBs for this primetime matchup. Bo Nix has a very attainable rushing yardage total — especially with a backfield in flux — and Spencer Rattler should throw an interception against a stout defence.
Check out my Broncos vs. Saints prop picks for Thursday Night Football on Oct. 17.
Broncos vs. Saints prop picks
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Best Bet: Nix over 24.5 rushing yards (-110)
Nix was the leading rusher for the Broncos last week, which is as much a knock against Denver as it is a credit to him.
Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin are both averaging below 4.0 yards per rush. And with Audric Estime back in the mix, after returning from injury last week, it’s anyone’s guess how the backfield touches will look on Thursday.
You can put Denver’s rushing ineptitude on Williams and McLaughlin, or you can blame the offensive line. Everyone has a role in this. Both tailbacks rank outside the top 50 in yards before contact and yards after contact.
Denver will need some spark on the ground, though. Especially against a Saints defence that ranks 28th in EPA per rush and fifth in EPA per dropback, per RBSDM.com.
Nix, coming off a season-high 61 rush yards, is mobile enough to cause issues for New Orleans. He also might be forced to scramble, as the Saints defence boasts the eighth-highest QB hurry rate (10.4%).
The rookie quarterback has a run of 10-plus yards in five of six games, and he’s averaging a healthy 6.2 rush attempts. I like this play based on his rushing volume and his upside on individual carries.
Key stat: Nix has cashed this prop in four of six games while averaging 30.0 rush yards per game.
Quick pick
Rattler over 0.5 interceptions (-136): Both quarterbacks’ interception props are shaded to the over. This could be an ugly, ugly football game.
Rattler had some impressive moments in his NFL debut, but ultimately he finished with a 55.0% completion rate and a pair of interceptions against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Tampa’s defence is decent, but Denver’s is ferocious — especially against quarterbacks:
- 4th in pressure rate (28.9%)
- 3rd in EPA per dropback
- 2nd in net yards/attempt (4.8)
The Broncos have also collected five interceptions in six games. They should be able put enough heat on Rattler to force at least one turnover.
Picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET 10/16/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.