The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Yankees kick off Opening Day at 3:05 p.m. ET in the Bronx.
The pregame narrative: Jackson Chourio is coming off an electric rookie season and I expect him to start 2025 on the right foot. Take the over on his total bases prop and fade Yankees starter Carlos Rodon’s strikeout total.
Check out my Brewers vs. Yankees prop picks for Opening Day.
Brewers vs. Yankees prop picks
MLB Opening Day Boost: Jays to win & Santander to homer. Bet now (+578)
Best bet: Chourio over 1.5 bases (+135)
The sky is the limit for Chourio, who finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2024.
That was thanks to a flat-out dominant second half of the season. Check out what the then-20-year-old shortstop did following the all-star break:
- .310/.363/.552 slashline
- 33 extra-base hits
- 139 total bases (2.2 per game)
The biggest knock on Chourio would be that he strikes out too much, which is fair. But I’m optimistic he’ll be able to get after Rodon.
The lefty posted a -5 fastball run value (20th percentile) and -8 breaking run value (fifth percentile) last year, per Baseball Savant.
His offspeed is by far his best stuff (+6 run value, 93rd percentile), but Chourio handles that well. The Venezuelan slugged .456 vs. off-speed pitches last season.
Key stat: For what it’s worth, Chourio had a monster spring training, batting .469 with a 1.223 OPS in 49 plate appearances.
Prop prediction
Rodon under 5.5 Ks (+102): Rodon is a solid swing-and-miss arm, but I’ll err toward fading him on Opening Day.
The Brewers are very much a neutral matchup, ranking 15th in K rate and wRC+ against lefties last season.
Teams have a tendency to keep a short leash on their starters to begin the season, carefully monitoring pitch count as guys slowly ramp up to a full workload.
I expect New York to do the same, especially given how thin its rotation is with Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil already sidelined.
Rodon went under this line in 14 of 32 starts last year, landing on exactly six Ks five times.
Brewers vs. Yankees prop picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET on 03/26/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.