Friday night’s matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers at Rogers Centre is sure to have a playoff-like atmosphere.
The pregame narrative: Tonight’s game features the two best teams in MLB. Shane Bieber makes his home debut after a dominant first start as a Blue Jay. Milwaukee will counter with ace Freddy Peralta in what’s shaping up to be a pitchers’ duel. Toronto is a slight favourite and the 7.5 total is tied for the lowest of the evening.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Brewers for Aug. 29, featuring a pick on George Springer.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Brewers
Best bet: Springer to score (+100)
Runs should be hard to come by in this game, but I can’t ignore this pricetag on Springer, who has been tearing it up since his return from the IL on Aug. 16.
- 391/.451/.804 slash line
- 15 runs in 11 games
- 6 HRs
The outfielder does his best damage against righties (.325/.425/.592) and at home (.324/.404/.564).
Peralta has been great, allowing just one run in 22.0 IP this month, lowering his season-long ERA to 2.68 (seventh-best in MLB).
But the righty still walks a ton of batters (28th percentile BB rate), and Toronto has the best wRC+ (136) since the all-star break.
Springer reached base in 66.7% of his plate appearances in Toronto’s recent three-game homestand against the Minnesota Twins, scoring seven times.
That type of production is unsustainable, but I’ll still bite.
Key stat: Springer’s 0.21 runs per at bat is third in MLB, behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani.
Jays prop pick
Bieber under 17.5 outs (+135): Toronto and Milwaukee are the No. 1 and 2 teams by batting average and wRC+ since the break.
The Brewers also rank fourth in K rate and eighth in ISO, so shutting down their lineup is a challenge for any pitcher, and Bieber is no exception.
The righty dazzled in his Jays debut last Friday, giving up just two hits while fanning nine in six innings. But having the over on his 17.5 outs line set at -186 feels a bit rich.
After all, he’s making just his second MLB start in well over a year and Toronto will want to exercise some caution ahead of the playoffs.
Moreover, with an off day on Thursday, the Jays’ bullpen will be rested up and ready to go.
Milwaukee has held four of its last five opposing starters under this line.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:05 a.m. ET on 08/28/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.