The BMW Championship is here, and the top 50 players remaining in the FedEx Cup playoffs look to punch their ticket to the Tour Championship.
The latest: Caves Valley Golf Club hosts this event for a second time, with Patrick Cantlay winning in 2021. But that was well before Scottie Scheffler took the reins as the undisputed No. 1 player in the world, and the Texan is a heavy favourite to win this week.
Check out my BMW Championship picks and predictions for the 2025 PGA Tour tournament beginning on Aug. 14.
BMW Championship picks
- Caves Valley plays at 7,226 yards and is a par-71. Cantlay won this event with a score of 27-under par in a six-hole playoff over Bryson DeChambeau. Bettors should expect low scores again.
- Betting against Scheffler is risky business. The world No. 1 didn’t have his A-game last week and was missing caddie Ted Scott on Sunday, but he still finished within one shot of a playoff. Scheffler has 11 straight top-eight finishes — and four wins — dating back to the Masters.
- Rory McIlroy skipped last week’s event, but he remains second on the odds board and in the FedEx Cup standings. He has three straight top-10 finishes and hasn’t played since the Open Championship.
- Tommy Fleetwood suffered more heartbreak last week, faltering down the stretch at the FedEx St. Jude to miss the playoff by one stroke. The Englishman ranks third in strokes gained over the previous three months in this field.
2025 BMW Championship predictions
Best bet: Cameron Young to win (+2,200)
Young finally found his way into the winner’s circle two weeks ago at the Wyndham Championship after a dozen or so close calls on the PGA Tour.
He parlayed that into a solo fifth finish at the FedEx Cup St. Jude and profiles as the type of player who should dominate at this venue.
- The big stick: Caves Valley should favour distance over accuracy with the driver. In this field over the last three months, Young ranks fifth in driving distance and ninth in strokes gained: off-the-tee.
- Making birdies: Young can score in droves. He ranks 17th in birdie average and 27th in final round scoring average on the PGA Tour this year.
- Putt for dough: Young has gained strokes putting in nine of his last 10 tournaments in the U.S. He ranks third in strokes gained: putting in this field over the last three months.
Young’s biggest weakness is around the greens, but there isn’t a ton of danger off the tee at Caves Valley. That means he’ll be able to let loose and put himself in a solid position to hit greens in regulation.
Key stat: Young has four top-five finishes in his last seven starts.
PGA Tour best bets
Full BMW Championship betting markets
Hideki Matsuyama to win (+3,300): Matsuyama has quietly gone about his business the last four weeks, finishing T13, T16, T19 and T17 while picking up a boatload of strokes on approach.
Something is brewing here, and I know the 11-time PGA Tour winner is capable of beating the best players in the world when he’s at his best.
Matsuyama began the season by winning The Sentry with a score of 35-under par. And last year around this time, he won the FedEx St. Jude Championship at 17-under.
Those were both limited field events with a high winning score. I can’t help but buy in on those similarities.
Kurt Kitayama to win (+4,000) & top-10 finish (+250): Kitayama is on a heater right now, winning the 3M Open in July and finishing T9 at the FedEx St. Jude last week.
He hits the ball a mile, is an elite ballstriker, and ranks third on the PGA Tour in birdie or better percentage — what’s not to like?
Expecting Kitayama to beat out the likes of Scheffler, McIlroy and Young is a bit rich, so I’m going to sprinkle his outright market. But I love the plus money odds on him to finish inside the top 10 in a 50-person field.
BMW Championship picks made at 3:10 p.m. on 08/11/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.