The Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Guardians play out their rubber match on Thursday afternoon.
The pregame narrative: Toronto looks to avoid consecutive series losses after dropping yesterday’s game in extra innings. Kevin Gausman (4.60 ERA) gets the ball for the Jays while Tanner Bibee (3.86) starts for the Guardians.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Guardians predictions, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez.
Blue Jays vs. Guardians predictions
Parlay: Guardians +1.5 | Guerrero over 1.5 bases | Ramirez 1+ hits (+425)
Guardians +1.5 (-190): Gausman’s seesaw season has continued, and it’s straight up hard to trust him at the moment.
- Gausman in May: 2.81 ERA, .215 OBA, 27% K rate, 1% BB rate
- Gausman in June: 7.65 ERA, .291 OBA, 24% K rate, 13% BB rate
The righty’s command issues stick out the most to me. He walked just one batter across five starts in May and has already issued 12 free passes in four starts in June.
Combined with the fact that he’s giving up plenty of contact, I struggle to see the Jays running away with this one.
Bibee isn’t exactly on a Cy Young run, but he’s been much more consistent and has a 3.86 ERA across four starts this month. The Guardians covered a +1.5 run line in three of those games.
Toronto is also 3-8 vs. a -1.5 line in its last 11 games.
MLB SGP legs
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+120): I backed Guerrero to go over 1.5 bases yesterday and he delivered with a towering solo shot in the fourth inning.
It was around this time last year when Guerrero got scorching hot, and his last eight games indicate we’re in for another big summer:
- .357 batting average
- .786 slugging percentage
- three doubles, three home runs
- 61% hard-hit rate
Bibee profiles as the type of pitcher who should give up contact. He has a 69th-percentile walk rate (7.0%) and 38th-percentile K rate (20.3%).
Guerrero is 4-for-8 against the righty with a home run.
Ramirez 1+ hits (-235): Let’s close out this parlay with what should be a layup.
Ramirez ranks sixth in MLB in batting average (.318) and has a hit in six of his last seven games. He ranks in the 95th percentile for xBA (.304), too, and has a 96th-percentile K rate (10.8%).
Ramirez has struggled against Gausman in the past — he’s 4-for-23 lifetime against the righty — but I like his chances of besting the struggling pitcher tonight.
Blue Jays vs. Guardians predictions made at 9:00 a.m. ET on 06/25/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.