After Thursday’s off-day, the Toronto Blue Jays are in the Bronx for their first matchup of the year against the New York Yankees.
The pregame narrative: It’s been a bumpy ride so far for Jose Berrios, and I think that’ll continue on Friday. That’s why I’ve got my eye on Ben Rice‘s bases prop — but I’m still backing Berrios in some form.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Yankees for April 25.
Blue Jays picks vs. Yankees
Best Bet: Rice over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-118)
I wanted action on Aaron Judge tonight. I really did.
But his prop prices to score a run (-195), notch an RBI (-109) and clear 2.5 bases (+107) were just too steep for my liking.
That’s why I’m turning to Rice, who you may never have heard of if you don’t follow the Yankees.
Rice is New York’s leadoff man, which means he bats right in front of Judge. That should offer plenty of protection, given that Judge has a 1.247 OPS through 25 games.
Rice is having his own fun in the early stages of Year 2 as a big-leaguer. He’s batting .288 with a 1.005 OPS through 22 games. And his .315 ISO ranks ninth in the majors — one spot behind Judge.
I’d love to describe Rice’s Baseball Savant page, but I think it’s better just to show it:
He’s tattooing the ball, and I like his chances of keeping that up against the mercurial Berrios.
Berrios has a 5.02 ERA and an .851 opponent OPS through five starts. He’s pitched at Yankee Stadium twice over the previous two seasons, allowing 10 runs on 14 hits in 10.2 innings.
Key stat: The left-hitting Rice has a .340/.468/.680 slash line against right-handed pitchers this year (62 plate appearances).
Quick pick
Berrios over 4.5 Ks (-163): I don’t have high hopes for Berrios in this start, but I do think he can cash this strikeouts prop while probably also getting knocked around the park a bit.
- This just isn’t a very lofty total for a starting pitcher that consistently tosses 5.0 innings or more (as Berrios has done in all five starts this season.
- Berrios is averaging 4.8 Ks per outing so far, cashing this bet in 3 of 5 games.
- In his past five outings against New York (since May 2023), Berrios has 38 Ks in 30.1 IP. He had 6+ Ks in each of those outings.
New York has the third-highest K rate in the majors (25.1%). So again, although I’m not bullish on Berrios to shut down the Yanks, I do expect him to miss a few bats along the way.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks made at 2:30 p.m. ET on 04/25/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.