The struggling Chicago White Sox are in town for a three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: Chicago has lost eight games in a row and is a pretty hefty underdog on Friday night against Toronto. The Blue Jays have won 11 of their past 13 home games and are 24-14 at home overall this season.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the White Sox for June 20, featuring Davis Martin and Alejandro Kirk.
Blue Jays picks vs. White Sox
Best Bet: Martin over 17.5 outs (-125)
Martin is a mediocre and relatively anonymous pitcher who has been good enough this year for a floundering White Sox team.
Through 14 outings (13 starts), the former 14th-round draftee has posted a 3.79 ERA and a 4.54 FIP. He’s also tied for fifth on the team in bWAR (1.2).
A lot of Martin’s value comes from being an innings-eater, and I’m hoping there’s more of that to come on Friday.
- 80.2 innings (most on White Sox)
- 17.3 outs per game
- 18+ outs in six straight
The White Sox had a bullpen game on Thursday, deploying nine relievers in a 10-inning matchup. They are only deploying a four-man rotation right now and currently have another bullpen game lined up for Sunday.
Some depth from Martin would provide a breather for a relief corps that definitely needs it.
Keeping one’s pitch count in check is a helpful way to go deeper into games. And Martin does that.
His 5.7% walk rate ranks in the 84th percentile, per Baseball Savant. He doesn’t have a lot of other glowing statistics, but he at least forces the other team to put the ball in play.
Key stat: Martin has pitched into the sixth inning or deeper in 11 of 13 starts.
Quick pick
Kirk over 1.5 total bases (+110): Most Toronto hitters haven’t seen Martin before, and that includes Kirk. But he’s having a great month and profiles well in this matchup.
- In June, Kirk is slashing .355/.375/.613. He has averaged 2.5 bases per game.
- Martin is a right-hander with reverse splits, meaning he performs worse against right-hitting opponents. RHHs are slugging .476 against him this season.
Martin is a five-pitch pitcher who throws all three fastball variations: four-seamers, sinkers and cutters. All in all, righty hitters see a diet of roughly 75% fastballs from him.
Kirk just so happens to be a machine against fastballs from RHPs, posting a combined .330/.366/.521 slash line against the three variations.
Blue Jays picks made at 10:20 a.m. ET on 06/20/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.