The Toronto Blue Jays got blanked, 8-0, in their series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies last night. On Saturday, the Phils are favoured to win again.
The pregame narrative: Tonight’s game is a rematch of June 3, with Bowden Francis and Cristopher Sanchez on the mound. Earlier this month, Francis was chased early in an 8-3 win for the Phillies, in which Trea Turner was the star of the show.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Phillies for June 14, with predictions on Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bo Bichette.
Blue Jays picks vs. Phillies
Best Bet: Turner over 0.5 runs (-112)
April was an underwhelming month for Turner, but he’s back to playing all-star-calibre ball since then.
- March/April: .717 OPS, 1+ runs in 13 of 27 games (48.1%)
- May/June: .863 OPS, 1+ runs in 23 of 39 games (59.0%)
I’m looking for multiple ways to back this Phillies’ offence against Francis, and this play is at the top of my list.
Turner has elite speed (99th percentile sprint speed, per Baseball Savant), and he bats leadoff for a Philadelphia offence that ranks seventh in runs per game.
Earlier this month, when the Phillies blitzed Francis in a six-run first inning at Rogers Centre, Turner got in on the fun by rocketing a two-run homer. He homered again later in the game as part of a 3-for-5 performance.
Francis was ousted after 1.2 innings against Philly, but that’s far from the only lineup that has torched him recently.
Over his past nine starts, the right-hander has allowed 70 baserunners and 34 runs in 37.1 innings.
Turner will be in the best position to score for the home team, and I think there’s a good chance Philadelphia puts up a boatload of runs this afternoon.
Key stat: Turner has scored a run in three straight games, as well as in 17 of his past 27 games.
Quick pick
Schwarber over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-118): Schwarber was quiet when the Phillies had their hit parade against Francis on June 3, but one game isn’t going to change my view of this left-hitting masher.
- On the season, Schwarber is averaging 2.3 hits/runs/RBI per game. He’s homered in back-to-back games and is now fourth in MLB with 22 HRs.
- Left-hitting players have a .301/.370/.647 slash line vs. Francis. For context, Shohei Ohtani’s slugging percentage this year is .615.
Even with a couple of home runs to end the week, Schwarber has been ice-cold in June. Still, he’s in the 95th percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and xSLG.
With a struggling pitcher on the mound, you won’t see a price like this for him very often.
Bichette under 1.5 total bases (-138): I faded Bichette against a talented left-handed pitcher last night, and I’ll gladly do it again with Sanchez on the mound.
Dating back to last season, here are Bichette’s stats vs. LHPs:
- .195 BA
- .254 SLG
- 39 wRC+
He is 1-for-6 with two Ks vs. Sanchez, who has a strong ERA (3.10) and K/9 (10.3).
Bichette has gone under 1.5 bases in eight of 11 games this month. That includes a hitless performance in last night’s series opener with southpaw Ranger Suarez on the mound.
Blue Jays picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET on 06/14/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.