The Toronto Blue Jays open up a three-game homestand against the Cleveland Guardians on Friday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto rebounded from an ugly stretch with back-to-back comeback wins over the Boston Red Sox. The Jays hope to keep the good vibes rolling against a Guardians team leading the AL Central at 18-13.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Chris Bassitt are my Blue Jays prop picks for May 2.
Blue Jays picks vs. Guardians
Best Bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (-108)
Guerrero played the hero last night hitting a three-run blast in the eighth inning to put Toronto up and secure the series win.
And can we talk about where he hit that pitch from? Talk about shades of his old man.
Anyways, Guerrero is rounding into form with hits in six of his last seven games — three of those left the yard. He’s still slashing an underwhelming .267/.358/.422 this season but Baseball Savant’s advanced metrics paint a rosier picture:
- .311 xBA (94th percnetile)
- .518 xSLG (84th percentile)
- 54.3% hard-hit rate (93rd percentile)
Guerrero is still mashing baseballs, but they just happen to be going right at fielders. Things are bound to start breaking his way sooner rather than later, and we’ve already seen that over the past week.
Tonight’s matchup against Cleveland’s Logan Allen presents a strong opportunity for Guerrero to stay hot.
The southpaw owns a 4.21 ERA through five starts and just got tagged for seven earned runs on nine hits against the Red Sox.
Key stat: Guerrero is slashing .308/.417/.538 against LHP since the start of last season.
Quick pick
Bassitt under 5.5 strikeouts (-138): The Bassitt Cy Young hype train has been derailed, at least for now. Toronto’s righty has gotten rocked in consecutive starts after posting a 0.77 ERA through his first four outings of the year:
- April 22 vs. HOU: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 K
- April 27 vs. NYY: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 5 K
I expect a better performance from Bassitt on Friday, but think this strikeout line is way too high, even if he works deep into the ballgame.
Why? Bassitt’s K rate was below the league average in three straight seasons heading into 2025. And while he has a 76th percentile K rate through six starts, we’re early on and have already seen a regression to the mean.
The righty is 1-3 against this line in his last four starts and has a 39th percentile whiff rate to boot.
Cleveland strikes out at the 10th-lowest rate vs. RHP, and its lineup has a 19.4% K rate against Bassitt in 35 combined plate appearances.
Guardians vs. Blue Jays picks made at 11:05 a.m. ET on 05/02/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.