The Toronto Blue Jays won in dramatic fashion on Tuesday night, and now they’ll look to pick up a series win on Wednesday.
The pregame narrative: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. helped fuel the comeback victory with a three-hit, three-RBI night against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Tonight, with Vlad Jr. looking to stay hot, Eric Lauer will take the ball for the Jays.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Diamondbacks for June 18.
Blue Jays picks vs. Diamondbacks
Best Bet: Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-112)
This bet cashed last night, and I feel good about running it back.
As was the case in the series opener, the Diamondbacks send out another struggling starter to the mound at Rogers Centre tonight. This time, it’s Eduardo Rodriguez (2-3, 6.27 ERA).
In fairness to Rodriguez, his two starts since returning from an injured list stint have been better: 11.1 innings, 12 hits, four runs, eight strikeouts.
That’s not exactly dominant, though, and I wouldn’t say it wipes away what has been a season of mediocrity.
The left-hander ranks between the 40th and 60th percentile in xBA, xERA, whiff rate and chase rate, per Baseball Savant.
Guerrero has had plenty of looks at E-Rod, batting 5-for-15 with three walks (.444 OBP).
This is about more than just the individual matchup, though.
- Guerrero is crushing left-handed pitching this year, posting a 173 wRC+ in that matchup (15th in MLB).
- Coming off a three-hit game last night, Guerrero is 10-6 vs. this prop since May 29.
Key stat: Since May 1, Guerrero has scored in 27 of 41 games (65.9%), posting a .393 OBP in that span.
Quick pick
Lauer under 3.5 Ks (-121): This is obviously a very low line for a starting pitcher, but I still see a compelling recipe for an under.
- In eight outings as either a starter or bulk reliever, Lauer has averaged 3.5 Ks per game.
- The Diamondbacks have the lowest K rate in the majors vs. left-handed pitching (17.6%).
- Lauer has worked no more than 4.2 innings in any outing this season.
Given his seemingly capped workload, Lauer will have to be decently efficient to clear this mark. And that’s a tough task against a high-contact opponent like Arizona.
Lauer’s primary put-away pitch is his curveball, which has garnered a 32.1% whiff rate this season. Arizona’s whiff rate against lefty curveballs is just 25.0% (fourth-lowest in MLB).
Blue Jays picks made at 8:45 a.m. ET on 06/18/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.