The Toronto Blue Jays open a three-game series at Rogers Centre on Tuesday night against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The pregame narrative: Brandon Pfaadt (8-4, 5.50 ERA) has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year, and he’s struggled the most in road starts. Toronto is 9-1 in its past 10 home games, with series wins over the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Diamondbacks for June 17, with predictions on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Eugenio Suarez.
Blue Jays picks vs. Diamondbacks
Best Bet: Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-106)
Toronto’s offence should be able to get to Pfaadt. I mean, pretty much everybody else has.
Pfaadt has the third-worst expected batting average (.331) and the fifth-worst expected ERA (7.22) in the majors. He has a 7.80 ERA over his past seven starts, so the nightmarish xERA is holding up.
On the road, Pfaadt has allowed 28 runs in seven starts. Toronto’s offence has no excuse tonight, and Guerrero should be one of the key offensive drivers.
I’m always hesitant to back Guerrero over 1.5 total bases because he walks a lot (89th percentile, per Baseball Savant) and has an underwhelming .414 SLG.
But from the No. 2 spot in the Blue Jays’ order, Guerrero has excelled at finding a way on base and coming around to score.
- He has 1+ runs in 38 of 70 games (54.3%).
- Guerrero’s xBA (.321) ranks second in the majors behind only Aaron Judge. Vladdy is also seventh in MLB in xwOBA (.407).
In the range of even money, I think there’s plenty of value on this prop given the compelling matchup.
Key stat: Since the start of May, Guerrero has scored in 26 of 40 games, posting a .385 OBP in that span.
Quick pick
Suarez over 1.5 total bases (+130): Suarez has a lot of all-or-nothing in his swing profile, but he usually only needs one good hack to cash this bet.
The third baseman is only batting .233, but he has a .527 SLG with 21 home runs (fifth in MLB).
Entering tonight, Suarez has homered in three of his past four games and is 8-5 vs. this prop in June.
Chris Bassitt has a low walk rate (5.5%, 86th percentile) and a league-average K rate (22.5%, 53rd percentile), so Suarez should have an opportunity or two to barrel something up.
Suarez is 3-for-8 with a home run and two doubles in his career vs. Bassitt.
Blue Jays picks made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 06/17/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.