The red-hot Toronto Blue Jays aim to sweep the St. Louis Cardinals in Wednesday’s matinee.
The pregame narrative: Toronto has won 13 of its last 15 games but is a slight road underdog with lefty Eric Lauer on the bump. St. Louis counters with a southpaw of its own, Matthew Liberatore, who has gotten rocked lately.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Cardinals for June 11, with predictions on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk.
Blue Jays picks vs. Cardinals
Best Bet: Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-109)
This is a smash play in my book for a few reasons.
- Toronto is averaging 5.73 runs in its last 15 games. In that span, the Jays rank top-three in wRC+ (138), K rate (13.0%), SLG (.492) and BA (.288).
- Guerrero is hitting second, on the road, meaning he’ll have ample opportunities at the plate. He has scored 10 runs in Toronto’s last 15 games.
- Liberatore has allowed 11 earned runs in his last two starts and has a 28th percentile xBA (.265), according to Baseball Savant.
The southpaw doesn’t issue many free passes, but he also doesn’t miss a ton of bats. Guerrero has hit for contact and power against lefties this season, boasting impressive .322/.424/.560 splits.
Behind Guerrero are George Springer, Addison Barger, and Kirk. All three of them are hitting north of .255 in June with SLGs above .545.
Key stat: Guerrero has cashed this wager in eight of his last 11 games.
Quick pick
Kirk over 1.5 total bases (+125): Kirk is making a strong case to be the AL’s starting catcher in the All-Star Game. He has the third-best batting average (.325) in baseball and is on fire over the last 10 games.
- .475 BA
- .725 SLG
- 2+ bases in 6 of 10 games
Kirk came through again last night, going 3-for-5 with a home run. He now has a whopping 15 total bases across his last two games.
Liberatore’s 97th percentile walk rate, 39th percentile K rate, and 27th percentile barrel rate mean Kirk should put the ball in play with authority.
Blue Jays picks made at 9:00 a.m. ET on 06/11/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.