Spencer Strider makes his 2025 season debut Wednesday afternoon in a rubber match between the Atlanta Braves and Toronto Blue Jays.
The pregame narrative: You never know what you’ll get out of a pitcher coming off an extended injury absence, but Strider has shown plenty of positives in his rehab outings. I’m backing the right-hander to cash a plus-money strikeout prop, and I also have picks on Austin Riley and Alejandro Kirk.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Braves for April 16.
Blue Jays picks vs. Braves
Best Bet: Strider over 6.5 strikeouts (+133)
It’s exciting to have Strider back in the majors, and I expect him to remind everybody just how good he is.
Strider’s last MLB outing came just over a year ago, after which he had season-ending elbow surgery before a long climb back to the Braves.
But unlike a hitter who may need time to adjust to big-league pitching again, I think Strider can get right back to top form on the mound. His stuff plays anywhere.
Strider’s fastball velocity is still a couple of ticks behind its top form, currently sitting at 95.7 mph after three outings with Triple-A Gwinnett. But it still averaged two additional inches of induced vertical break (i.e., rise) compared to the average MLB starter’s fastball, according to MLB.com’s David Adler.
After being essentially a two-pitch starter in his first two full seasons, Strider heightened his deployment of two additional offerings (changeup, curveball) during his rehab assignment.
With Gwinnett, Strider’s changeup had 32 inches of vertical drop — five more than he’d ever averaged in the majors. And his curveball had 12 inches of vertical drop, which was three more than he’d averaged in 2024.
Enough about pitch shapes, though. How has it all been working out for Strider?
I’d say the minor-league outings speak for themselves:
- March 29: 3.0 IP, 6 Ks, 1 R
- April 4: 5.1 IP, 8 Ks, 0 R
- April 10: 5.1 IP, 13 Ks, 1 R
In his final start, Strider stretched out to 90 pitches and fanned 13 of 21 batters.
He’ll obviously face a tougher lineup on Wednesday, but he’s built up nicely and is accustomed to clearing this strikeout total at the MLB level.
In 2023 — his most recent full season — Strider went over 6.5 Ks in 27 of 32 outings.
Key stat: Strider’s 483 strikeouts from 2022-23 were the most among any MLB pitcher in that span.
Quick picks
Riley over 1.5 bases (+123): Riley is on a heater, and this is a solid price to back him at.
The third baseman is 4-for-8 at Rogers Centre in this series, and three of those hits left the yard.
He’s now riding an eight-game hitting streak, featuring some truly gaudy numbers:
- 16-for-35 (.457)
- 1.358 OPS
- 7 extra-base hits
- 2+ bases in 7 of 8
Riley is 3-for-11 with a homer against Toronto starter Chris Bassitt, which equates to a .545 SLG. His contact quality has clearly been good in this matchup, as Baseball Savant grades him at a .600 xSLG.
Kirk under 0.5 hits (+140): Kirk might not contribute much to Strider’s strikeout total, but I think he has a fair chance of going hitless on Wednesday.
Kirk ranks in the 37th percentile in xBA (.233) and in the 25th percentile in xSLG (.331). He’s been hitless in six of 13 starts.
As a right-hitting player, Kirk will have Strider’s elite slider running away from him. In 2023, that slider generated a 55.3% whiff rate (third among all pitches that year).
Strider has held righties to a .188 BA in his career.
Braves vs. Blue Jays picks made at 9:23 a.m. ET on 04/16/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.