The Toronto Blue Jays hit the West Coast to open a series against the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday night.
The pregame narrative: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still struggling to find consistent power, but he knows how to mash against lefties — and particularly against Angels starter Tyler Anderson. In fact, Toronto’s offence as a whole has been among the best in the league against southpaws.
I’m backing Guerrero and fading Anderson in my Blue Jays picks vs. the Angels on May 6.
Blue Jays picks vs. Angels
Best Bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+104)
Guerrero has been a frustrating player to back on his bases prop this season, but it hasn’t been as fruitless of a venture as you might think.
- Guerrero has 2+ bases in 16 of 34 games (47.1%).
- He’s averaging 1.6 bases this season.
Baseball Savant is still bullish on Guerrero’s batted ball quality, which matters to me. His .414 SLG is far below his .524 xSLG, for example.
The first baseman also ranks in the 89th percentile or better in xBA, xwOBA, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
Now he gets a lefty-righty matchup against L.A.’s Anderson. That’s a plus for the guy wielding the bat.
Guerrero has done serious damage against lefties since the start of last season, posting a .301/.404/.534 slash line. His 164 wRC+ against LHPs in that span ranks 14th among 137 qualified hitters.
A plus-money bases prop for Vladdy is still playable on most nights, and tonight is one of those.
Key stat: Guerrero is 6-for-11 with two doubles against Anderson. Last year in Anderson’s start at Angel Stadium, Vlad Jr. went 3-for-5 with a double.
Quick pick
Anderson under 17.5 outs (-109): The Blue Jays’ offence has been among the worst in the majors, but there’s a notable split in results depending on the handedness of the pitcher.
- vs. LHP: .247/.339/.387, 112 wRC+, 10.7 BB%
- vs. RHP: .235/.301/.340, 85 wRC+, 7.7 BB%
Toronto’s 112 wRC+ against lefties ranks sixth in MLB. Its 85 wRC+ against righties ranks 26th.
Anderson faced Toronto twice last season, going 0-2 while allowing nine earned runs on 10 hits in 10.2 innings. He went under this outs total both times.
The Angels are coming off a rest day and have a perfectly refreshed bullpen. None of their relievers have worked more than once in the past three days.
Blue Jays picks vs. Angels made at 11:09 a.m. ET on 05/06/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.