Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headlines today’s Toronto Blue Jays picks.
The pregame narrative: Jose Berrios and Tyler Anderson take the mound as Toronto looks to sweep the Los Angeles Angels. Guerrero has crushed left-handed pitching during his hot streak, making his bases prop enticing. I’m also looking to fade Berrios who has been awful on the road.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Angels on Aug. 14.
Blue Jays picks vs. Angels
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Best Bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+100)
Guerrero is a top-10 hitter in nearly every metric despite an awful start to the season.
He is fourth in batting average (.320), seventh in wRC+ (164), eighth in total bases (252), and 10th in OPS (.940). Getting him at plus money to record multiple bases seems absurd at this point, but I’ll take it.
Vladdy has been on a ridiculous 25-game heater, slashing .456/.523/.957 with 12 doubles and 11 home runs. He is slugging 1.105 against left-handed pitching during this run.
Anderson is a respectable arm with a 2.99 ERA but I’m happy to ride with the hot bat in this matchup.
Especially when you consider the southpaw has an xERA of 4.20, making him the 28th “luckiest” pitcher in MLB, per Baseball Savant.
Guerrero has also faced Anderson before and is 3-for-6.
All of those hits went for singles but I’m not worried about Vladdy reaching back and hitting for power.
Key stat: Guerrero is 17-8 against this line in his last 25 games (68.0%).
Quick pick
Angels F5 moneyline tie no bet (-115): If we’re talking about Anderson having a lucky season we also need to mention Berrios.
Toronto’s righty has a 3.97 ERA and a 5.14 xERA, the latter of which ranks in the ninth percentile. He also has an 11th-percentile xBA (.276) and a 19th percentile K rate (18.7).
That’s simply not good enough.
Berrios has cobbled together some good starts here and there but he’s generally gotten shelled on the road. He has a 5.29 ERA and a .272 opponent batting average outside of Rogers Centre.
Los Angeles doesn’t have a potent lineup but is still batting a respectable .258 against him in 35 combined plate appearances.
I would be keen on fading Berrios’ outs prop but it is set at 18.5 and heavily juiced (-180) to the under. This seems like a solid pivot.
Toronto is 0-9 on the F5 moneyline in Berrios’ last nine road starts.
Picks made at 8:27 a.m. on 08/14/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.