The Toronto Blue Jays hit the West Coast to open a series against the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday night.
The pregame narrative: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still struggling to find consistent power, but he knows how to mash against lefties — and particularly against Angels starter Tyler Anderson. In fact, Toronto’s offence as a whole has been among the best in the league against southpaws.
I’m backing Guerrero as my Blue Jays best bet vs. the Angels on May 6.
Blue Jays best bet vs. Angels
Best Bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+110)
Guerrero has been a frustrating player to back on his bases prop this season, but it hasn’t been as fruitless of a venture as you might think.
- Guerrero has 2+ bases in 16 of 34 games (47.1%).
- He’s averaging 1.6 bases this season.
Baseball Savant is still bullish on Guerrero’s batted ball quality, which matters to me. His .414 SLG is far below his .524 xSLG, for example.
The first baseman also ranks in the 89th percentile or better in xBA, xwOBA, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
Now he gets a lefty-righty matchup against L.A.’s Anderson. That’s a plus for the guy wielding the bat.
Guerrero has done serious damage against lefties since the start of last season, posting a .301/.404/.534 slash line. His 164 wRC+ against LHPs in that span ranks 14th among 137 qualified hitters.
A plus-money bases prop for Vladdy is still playable on most nights, and tonight is one of those.
Key stat: Guerrero is 6-for-11 with two doubles against Anderson. Last year in Anderson’s start at Angel Stadium, Vlad Jr. went 3-for-5 with a double.
Blue Jays best bet vs. Angels made at 3:09 p.m. ET on 05/06/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.