This week’s Sunday NFL slate ends with an absolute banger.
The pregame narrative: The Buffalo Bills are rolling and battle a Baltimore Ravens team off to a sluggish start. I like Dalton Kincaid to factor into the passing game and Justice Hill to clear a modest scrimmage yard total.
Check out my Bills vs. Ravens prop picks for Sept. 29.
Bills vs. Ravens prop picks
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Best Bet: Kincaid over 37.5 receiving yards (-114)
Kincaid hasn’t had his breakout game yet but I’m calling for it on Sunday.
And to be clear it’s not because he’s been playing poorly, it’s because Josh Allen has been spreading the wealth around the offence and the Bills have been blowing teams out.
The second-year tight end cleared this line against the Jacksonville Jaguars with 41 yards in a 37-point blowout. Buffalo did whatever it wanted in that game and most of the starters were getting rested by the end of the third quarter.
In Baltimore, I expect the Ravens to put up much more of a fight.
A close contest is the type of game script we want for this prop. But even if the Bills start front-running I love Kincaid’s chances of clearing this number.
Baltimore’s rush defence is stout but its secondary is falling apart at the seams. The Ravens have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game and the most passing yards. It isn’t often you see a team so good at one aspect of defending and so poor at another.
Tight ends have feasted against Zach Orr’s defence with Jake Ferguson most recently going off for six catches (11 targets) and 95 yards.
Key stat: The Ravens have allowed the second most receptions and receiving yards to tight ends this year.
Quick picks
Hill over 29.5 rushing and receiving yards (-114): Am I missing something here? Hill has cleared this total in all three games, posting 50-plus scrimmage yards twice.
Derrick Henry is Baltimore’s bell cow back but Hill is a respectable No. 2 and features heavily on third down. The 26-year-old has at least two catches in every game and hauled in six for 52 yards in the season opener.
Hill only had one carry in that game but has gotten a little more run on the ground since, and most recently had five carries for 33 yards against the Dallas Cowboys.
Buffalo has a solid rush defence but has given up plenty of catches to RBs. It has allowed the fourth-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards to running backs so far.
Hill and Henry have both logged 104 snaps this season and I expect the shifty tailback to make a difference in what should be a close game.
Picks made at 1:54 p.m. ET 09/28/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.