The most exciting NFL Sunday matchup this week is a potential Super Bowl preview between the Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions.
The pregame narrative: Detroit and Buffalo are two of the top-four teams in the Super Bowl futures market, and I’m expecting a close game at Ford Field. In addition to a Bills alt spread, I like Josh Allen to score and Jameson Williams to continue feasting at home.
Check out my Bills vs. Rams same-game parlay predictions for Week 15 below.
Bills vs. Lions same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Bills +7.5 + Allen anytime TD + Williams over 51.5 receiving yards (+370)
Bills +7.5 (-335): Both teams have strong ATS records, and this could easily be a game that comes down to whichever side has the ball last. With that in mind, I’m willing to pay quite a premium to get Buffalo plus a touchdown and a hook.
Aside from a 35-10 road loss in Baltimore in Week 4, the Bills have covered this number in every game.
In fact, Buffalo (8-5-0 ATS this year) has covered this number in all but three games since the start of the 2021 season — including the playoffs.
Detroit (9-4-0 ATS) is arguably the most dangerous team in the NFL this year. Its status as the SB LIX frontrunner is justified, but not all of its recent wins have been convincing.
The Lions are 4-4 against this number in their past eight games, including back-to-back home wins by a field goal.
Other parlay picks
Allen anytime TD (+100): Allen went into battering ram mode last week, and I could see him doing it again.
With three rushing TDs from the one-yard line, Allen scored against the Rams even when they knew it was coming.
Stopping a 6-foot-5, 237-pound quarterback is easier said than done.
Allen has now scored a TD in four straight games, and he has 11 rush attempts inside the 10-yard line over his past eight games.
He has enough elusiveness to score from 10-plus yards away, but he also has enough size and determination to do a reputable Jalen Hurts impression at the goal line.
Williams over 51.5 receiving yards (-115): Coming out of his two-game suspension in Weeks 8-9, Williams has been a valued asset in the Lions’ offence.
- 5+ targets in 5/5 games
- 4-1 vs. this yardage number
- 5+ catches in three straight
Williams also tends to do his best work on home turf. At Ford Field this year, the 2022 first-rounder is averaging 85.3 yards/game while going 5-1 against this prop.
The Rams had two receivers clear this line with ease against Buffalo last week, and WR3 Tutu Atwell came close (45 yards).
Williams’ involvement has been steady, and this isn’t a hefty ask for a guy with 14 catches of 20-plus yards this season.
Picks made at 11:10 a.m. on 12/13/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.