The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets wrap up Week 6 with an all-AFC East showdown.
The pregame narrative: Josh Allen has struggled the last two weeks and I’m fading him against a defence that has given him trouble. My best bet is a play on New York’s backup running back, Braelon Allen.
Check out my Bills vs. Jets prop picks for Monday Night Football on Oct. 14.
Bills vs. Jets prop picks
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Best Bet: Allen over 32.5 rushing yards (-112)
This bet should simply come down to how much volume Allen gets.
The rookie running back has been hyper-efficient for the Jets, logging 143 rushing yards on 32 carries (4.5 YPC). Compare that to Breece Hall, who has 197 yards on 65 carries (3.0 YPC). That’s only 44 more yards on nearly double the touches.
I’m not saying the Jets should make Allen their RB1, but moving closer to a timeshare could benefit both parties.
The 20-year-old had a tough outing against the Minnesota Vikings last week (five carries, 13 yards), but who doesn’t? Minnesota allows the second-fewest rushing yards per game and is second in defensive EPA per rush.
In the three weeks before that, Allen rushed for 34 yards against the Denver Broncos, 55 yards against the New England Patriots and 33 yards against the Tennesee Titans.
He only had one carry in New York’s season opener against the San Francisco 49ers so I’m throwing that result out the window.
The Bills’ rush defence isn’t great and I expect the Jets to exploit that.
Key stat: Buffalo has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game and is 22nd in defensive EPA per rush.
Quick picks
Allen over 0.5 interceptions (-124): Allen hasn’t thrown an interception this year but he’s far from perfect.
The MVP hopeful has been awful the last two weeks, completing a combined 25-of-59 passes (42.3%) with just one touchdown.
According to PFF, Allen has six turnover-worthy plays so far and is on pace for the highest turnover-worthy play percentage of his career:
He had a nightmare game against the Jets to open last season, throwing three interceptions while losing a fumble. He also threw an interception when the teams met in Week 11.
Robert Saleh is gone but I don’t expect New York’s defence to take a hit.
The Jets had 17 interceptions last season, which was tied for the eighth-most in the NFL (two so far in 2024).
Picks made at 1:22 p.m. ET 10/13/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.