Another chapter in the Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs rivalry will be written on Sunday night.
The pregame narrative: Patrick Mahomes has sent Buffalo packing three times in the playoffs but I say the Bills keep this close with Josh Allen scoring a touchdown. Prop bets on each team’s tight end — Travis Kelce and Dalton Kincaid — round out this wager.
Check out my Bills vs. Chiefs same-game parlay predictions for the AFC championship game on Jan. 26.
Bills vs. Chiefs same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Bills +7.5 + Allen anytime TD + Kelce over 49.5 receiving yards + Kincaid over 29.5 receiving yards (+400)
Bills +7.5 (-315): Buffalo’s last two playoff defeats to Kansas City were heartbreaking.
Last year, Tyler Bass missed a game-tying 44-yard field goal late in the fourth quarter. And in 2022, the Bills were 13 seconds away from punching their ticket to the AFC championship game … we all know what happened after that.
But Buffalo kept each game close and I expect another instant classic on Sunday.
The Bills beat the Chiefs earlier this season, albeit in Buffalo, and have covered a +7.5 spread in all but one of their games (Week 4 vs. Baltimore).
KC needed a fair amount of luck to cobble together its 15-2 record, winning just five of those games by more than a score.
I won’t bet against Mahomes winning at Arrowhead but I also won’t bet on Allen getting blown out in the biggest game of his career.
Other parlay picks
Allen anytime TD (-124): Speaking of Allen, let’s take a look at how dominant he’s been through 12 career playoff games:
- 23 passing TDs, 4 INTs
- 7 rushing TDs
- 101.5 passer rating
Any chances the Bills have of exorcising their playoff demons will start and end with No. 17.
Allen has been a battering ram at the goal line all season. Last week, he rushed for two touchdowns in a 27-25 win over the Baltimore Ravens.
And in the regular season, he turned 18 carries within the 10-yard line into 10 touchdowns.
Allen found the end zone in six of his last eight regular-season games, including against the Chiefs in Week 11. These are great odds for a proven red-zone threat.
Kelce over 49.5 receiving yards (-295): Kelce was basically a non-factor during the regular season but came out of hibernation when it mattered most.
The future Hall of Famer logged seven catches for 117 yards in the divisional round, adding to his illustrious playoff resume.
- Kelce has logged 2,020 receiving yards over 23 playoff games (87.8 average).
- He’s put up 70+ yards in 14 straight playoff games, with 90+ yards in 10 of those contests.
Defences have been trying to gameplan Kelce for half a decade with little success. I would be shocked if he failed to crack 50 yards against a banged-up Bills secondary.
Kincaid over 29.5 receiving yards (-148): Kincaid hasn’t lived up to the billing as a first-round pick but can flip the narrative with one big game.
The thing is, we don’t even need a “big game” out of the 25-year-old for this to cash. Buffalo’s tight end has cleared this number in 10 of 15 games (regular season and playoffs) and draws a nice matchup.
Kansas City allowed the most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season (69.78), per CBS Sports.
Kincaid missed the regular-season matchup against the Chiefs but had 45 yards against them in the playoffs last season.
Picks made at 1:42 p.m. ET on 01/17/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.