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Maple Leafs picks vs. Ducks Dec. 12: Bet on Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner to fill stat sheet

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Anaheim Ducks on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: The Ducks come into Toronto after playing (and losing) last night. I’m predicting Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have productive games for the Leafs. For Anaheim, I’m taking Troy Terry to record a point.

Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Ducks for Dec. 12.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Ducks

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Best Bet: Matthews over 4.5 shots (+105)

If there’s any matchup to back Matthews in, it’s this one.

Anaheim allows the most shots against per game (32.9).

The Ducks allowed 30+ shots in seven of the last nine games.

Meanwhile, Matthews ranks fourth in the NHL in shot attempts per game (7.8) and second in shots on goal per game (4.1).

Anaheim also played last night, losing 5-1 to the Ottawa Senators. I expect the Ducks to play extra sloppy with the added fatigue, leading to loads of offence for the Leafs.

Key stat: Matthews had five of the Leafs’ 17 shots in their 2-1 win over the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday.

Quick picks

Marner to record 2+ points (+120): I cannot keep myself away from this market — and for good reason.

Marner is on an absolute tear right now, scoring multiple points in 11 of his last 15 games.

He was held off the score sheet against the Devils, but that’s even more reason to jump in now against the inferior Ducks.

In Anaheim’s 5-1 loss yesterday, three different Ottawa Senators’ skaters had multiple points (Drake Batherson, Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk).

If Toronto can replicate that offensive output, there’s no doubt in my mind that Marner will be at the centre of it.

Terry to record 1+ points (-106): For my final pick, I want to back a player on the away side.

Terry is the Ducks’ best offensive player and it’s not close. He has 21 points in 27 games, which is eight more than the next-highest Ducks player (Frank Vatrano).

Terry leads Anaheim’s forwards in average time on ice (18:42), and he’s played more than 19 minutes in six straight (skating 20-plus minutes in four of six).

If anyone is going to will the Ducks to some offence against the Leafs, it’s Terry. He has points in 17 of 27 games this season.

NHL picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 12/12/24.

Rams vs. 49ers Week 15 TNF prop picks: Bet on Nacua to find the endzone in divisional matchup

The Los Angeles Rams visit the San Francisco 49ers in a pivotal NFC West matchup, and I like prop picks from both sides.

The pregame narrative: George Kittle is the 49ers’ most consistent receiver right now so I’m taking the over on his receptions prop. For the Rams, I’m backing Puka Nakua and Matthew Stafford.

Check out my Rams vs. 49ers prop picks for Thursday Night Football on Dec. 12.

Rams vs. 49ers prop picks

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Best Bet: Kittle over 4.5 receptions (-107)

Our Avery Perri took the over on Kittle’s receiving yards in his TNF best bets and I have the same sort of idea here.

Kittle has been a standout tight end this season and you could really back him in any market.

He has 56 receptions (5.1 per game)
800 receiving yards (third amongst TEs)
Eight TDs (leads TEs)

I decided to take his receptions prop as I love the value on this modest line.

Last week, Kittle exploded in a six-reception, 151-yard performance against the Chicago Bears.

L.A. allows 5.46 receptions per game to opposing tight ends and Kittle is one of if not the best in the league.

Key stat: Kittle cleared this line in six of the last eight games.

Quick pick

Nacua anytime TD (+105): Nacua has been a monster over the past four games. He’s had three different 100-yard-plus performances and is 3-1 against the line.

Stafford is feeding him the ball on offence and it’s been effective. The Rams are also on a three-game win streak so I don’t see any reason why they would stop peppering Nacua.

With the volume he is receiving right now, there are bound to be opportunities near the 49ers’ endzone.

Since Week 10, Nacua has been targeted nine times in the red zone resulting in seven catches and three TDs.

Stafford over 1.5 passing TDs (-129): With a healthy offence, Stafford has been cooking.

The veteran gunslinger has two or more passing touchdowns in six of the last seven games and I’m unconvinced the 49ers are back after a win against the Bears.

While San Francisco limits the opposition to the third-fewest passing yards per game (182.6), it gives up the 11th most points (23.7).

The 49ers defence also allows the sixth-best conversion rate on third down (43.9%).

I love the talent surrounding Stafford and he should be able to keep drives alive leading to a lot of scoring.

Picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET 11/20/2024.

NHL prop picks Dec. 11: Back Tkachuk, Power and Terry on Wednesday

There are just two NHL games on Wednesday but I still found three prop picks worth a look.

The pregame narrative: Brady Tkachuk hasn’t scored in three straight but has a great matchup to get back on track. I also like picks on Owen Power and Troy Terry.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 11.

NHL prop picks

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Best bet: Tkachuk to score 1+ goal (+105)

Ottawa’s captain was the subject of some false trade rumours that were shut down by the Ottawa Senators’ front office immediately — but Tkachuk may still be playing with some extra ferocity.

Not that he needs any motivation. Tkachuk fills up all portions of the stat sheet with 13 goals, 16 assists, 106 hits, 50 penalty minutes, and 117 shots this season.

I want to focus on that last stat. His 4.3 shots per game average leads the NHL ahead of names like Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak and Nathan MacKinnon.

That’s the production of someone who should be scoring 40-plus goals every season.

Tkachuks never had 40 but is right around the pace this season and can make up ground in a soft matchup with the Anaheim Ducks.

Anaheim allows the most shots per game (32.9)
Ottawa generates the third-most shots per game (30.9)

Unfortunately, the over on Tkachuk’s 3.5 shot prop is unplayable at its price (-200) but why not take him to score instead at plus money?

Key stat: Tkachuk has eight goals in 15 home games this season.

Quick pick

Power to record 1+ point (+110): This pick is based on opportunity.

Buffalo’s top defenceman Rasmus Dahlin landed on the injured reserve yesterday and will be out for the foreseeable future.

Dahlin has already missed three games and here’s Power’s stats in those games:

25:48 average time on ice
Cashed this wager twice

The huge uptick in ice time (22:26 season average) gives Power more opportunity to be involved in the offence.

Power has zero powerplay points on the season but has been skating with the first PP unit in Dahlin’s absence so that’s surely to change.

And it’s not like the New York Rangers are to be feared right now. They are 2-8 in their last 10, allowing 40 goals over that span.

Terry over 2.5 shots (-125): I was watching the Ducks’ last game against the Montreal Canadiens on Monday and Terry was clearly the most explosive player on Anaheim’s offence.

That’s not a hot take by any means as the winger’s 21 points are eight more than second-place Frank Vatrano (13).

However, it seems the Ducks’ coaching staff took longer to realize than most. Terry is averaging 18:41 of ice time per game but has played 21 or more in four of the past five games.

Over that time, Terry is 4-1 against the line with 24 shots (4.8 per game).

Picks made at 11:08 a.m. 12/11/2024

NHL prop picks Dec. 11: Back Tkachuk, Power and Terry on Wednesday

There are just two NHL games on Wednesday but I still found three prop picks worth a look.

The pregame narrative: Brady Tkachuk hasn’t scored in three straight but has a great matchup to get back on track. I also like picks on Owen Power and Troy Terry.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 11.

NHL prop picks

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Best bet: Tkachuk to score 1+ goal (+105)

Ottawa’s captain was the subject of some false trade rumours that were shut down by the Ottawa Senators’ front office immediately — but Tkachuk may still be playing with some extra ferocity.

Not that he needs any motivation. Tkachuk fills up all portions of the stat sheet with 13 goals, 16 assists, 106 hits, 50 penalty minutes, and 117 shots this season.

I want to focus on that last stat. His 4.3 shots per game average leads the NHL ahead of names like Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak and Nathan MacKinnon.

That’s the production of someone who should be scoring 40-plus goals every season.

Tkachuks never had 40 but is right around the pace this season and can make up ground in a soft matchup with the Anaheim Ducks.

Anaheim allows the most shots per game (32.9)
Ottawa generates the third-most shots per game (30.9)

Unfortunately, the over on Tkachuk’s 3.5 shot prop is unplayable at its price (-200) but why not take him to score instead at plus money?

Key stat: Tkachuk has eight goals in 15 home games this season.

Quick pick

Power to record 1+ point (+112): This pick is based on opportunity.

Buffalo’s top defenceman Rasmus Dahlin landed on the injured reserve yesterday and will be out for the foreseeable future.

Dahlin has already missed three games and here’s Power’s stats in those games:

25:48 average time on ice
Cashed this wager twice

The huge uptick in ice time (22:26 season average) gives Power more opportunity to be involved in the offence.

Power has zero powerplay points on the season but has been skating with the first PP unit in Dahlin’s absence so that’s surely to change.

And it’s not like the New York Rangers are to be feared right now. They are 2-8 in their last 10, allowing 40 goals over that span.

Terry over 2.5 shots (-106): I was watching the Ducks’ last game against the Montreal Canadiens on Monday and Terry was clearly the most explosive player on Anaheim’s offence.

That’s not a hot take by any means as the winger’s 21 points are eight more than second-place Frank Vatrano (13).

However, it seems the Ducks’ coaching staff took longer to realize than most. Terry is averaging 18:41 of ice time per game but has played 21 or more in four of the past five games.

Over that time, Terry is 4-1 against the line with 24 shots (4.8 per game).

Picks made at 9:31 a.m. 12/11/2024.

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NFL Week 15 upset picks: Back the Colts, Dolphins as underdogs

Two 6-7 teams have value as upset picks in Week 15.

The pregame narrative: The Miami Dolphins are red-hot right now and I see value on them heading into a game with the Houston Texans. I also like the Indianapolis Colts on the road against the Denver Broncos.

Check out these NFL Week 15 upset picks.

NFL Week 15 upset picks

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Best bet: Dolphins moneyline (+130)

Call me crazy but I do not find the Houston Texans all that impressive for an 8-5 team.

Over the past five weeks, Houston is 2-3 and here are the results:

Week 9 @ Jets: 21-13 loss
Week 10 vs. Lions: 26-23 loss
Week 11@ Cowboys: 34-10 win
Week 12 vs. Titans: 32-27 NFL Week 15 upset picks: Back the Colts, Dolphins as underdogsloss
Week 13 @ Jaguars: 23-20 win

The Texans have one somewhat respectable win over Dallas mixed in with some disappointing losses.

Miami, on the other hand, has been far more consistent since the return of Tua Tagovailoa.

The Dolphins have scored 30-plus points in three of the last five games, losing only once in that span (at Green Bay on Thanksgiving).

Tagovailoa is also cooking right now. He has 11 touchdowns and no interceptions over his past four games. He threw for 288-plus yards in each of those contests.

C.J. Stroud has been much less impressive over that same timeframe. He has a 4:5 TD-to-INT ratio.

I’ll take the underdog price tag on the side with all the momentum heading into Week 15.

Key stat: Miami is 4-1 over its past five games.

Week 15 upset predictions

Colts moneyline (+180): I don’t feel as bullish about picking Anthony Richardson and the Colts, but they have been competitive in most games this season.

Indianapolis has only lost three games by more than a touchdown, and those outings were against some of the league’s best squads (Lions, Bills, Vikings).

In fact, Detroit, Buffalo and Minnesota have combined for just six losses this entire season.

Richardson continues to be the least accurate QB in the NFL but his duel-threat ability has been enough to make up for it on most occasions.

Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos continue to improve as the season goes on but something about this screams “trap game” to me

Denver’s defence is fresh off allowing Jameis Winston to throw for 497 yards and four touchdowns. Indy’s offence could be in for a big-time performance.

Picks made at 3:04 p.m. ET on 12/09/2024.

NFL Week 15 upset picks: Back the Colts, Dolphins as underdogs

Two 6-7 teams have value as upset picks in Week 15.

The pregame narrative: The Miami Dolphins are red-hot right now and I see value on them heading into a game with the Houston Texans. I also like the Indianapolis Colts on the road against the Denver Broncos.

Check out these NFL Week 15 upset picks.

NFL Week 15 upset picks

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Best bet: Dolphins moneyline (+135)

Call me crazy but I do not find the Houston Texans all that impressive for an 8-5 team.

Over the past five weeks, Houston is 2-3 and here are the results:

Week 9 @ Jets: 21-13 loss
Week 10 vs. Lions: 26-23 loss
Week 11@ Cowboys: 34-10 win
Week 12 vs. Titans: 32-27 loss
Week 13 @ Jaguars: 23-20 win

The Texans have one somewhat respectable win over Dallas mixed in with some disappointing losses.

Miami, on the other hand, has been far more consistent since the return of Tua Tagovailoa.

The Dolphins have scored 30-plus points in three of the last five games, losing only once in that span (at Green Bay on Thanksgiving).

Tagovailoa is also cooking right now. He has 11 touchdowns and no interceptions over his past four games. He threw for 288-plus yards in each of those contests.

C.J. Stroud has been much less impressive over that same timeframe. He has a 4:5 TD-to-INT ratio.

I’ll take the underdog price tag on the side with all the momentum heading into Week 15.

Key stat: Miami is 4-1 over its past five games.

Week 15 upset predictions

Colts moneyline (+170): I don’t feel as bullish about picking Anthony Richardson and the Colts, but they have been competitive in most games this season.

Indianapolis has only lost three games by more than a touchdown, and those outings were against some of the league’s best squads (Lions, Bills, Vikings).

In fact, Detroit, Buffalo and Minnesota have combined for just six losses this entire season.

Richardson continues to be the least accurate QB in the NFL but his duel-threat ability has been enough to make up for it on most occasions.

Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos continue to improve as the season goes on but something about this screams “trap game” to me

Denver’s defence is fresh off allowing Jameis Winston to throw for 497 yards and four touchdowns. Indy’s offence could be in for a big-time performance.

Picks made at 2:04 p.m. ET on 12/09/2024.

NHL prop picks Dec. 9: Back Connor Bedard and Nick Suzuki on Monday

Two NHL stars on the rise headline my prop picks for Monday.

The pregame narrative: Connor Bedard has value to get on the score sheet against the struggling New York Rangers. Later on, Nick Suzuki has the chance to excel in a plus matchup.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 9.

NHL prop picks

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Best bet: Bedard to record a point (-134)

This is a very reasonable price for Chicago’s top point producer.

New York isn’t the team it was at the start of the season. The side has lost seven of its past nine games.

Surprisingly, the problem is on the back end. Over that nine-game run, the Rangers allowed four or more goals on five different occasions.

That includes their 7-5 loss to the Seattle Kraken on Sunday.

Bedard plays on a miserable Blackhawks team, but he’s managed to score 20 points in 27 games this season.

The second-year pro averages 19:35 of ice time and plays on both the first line and first power-play unit.

Bedard will be out there a lot and gets a soft matchup against a fatigued Rangers team.

Key stat: The 2023 first-overall pick has 81 career points in 95 games.

Quick pick

Suzuki over 2.5 shots (+115): Suzuki gets a lot less league-wide attention but he’s putting together quite the season for the Montreal Canadiens.

Montreal’s captain has 28 points in 27 games this season. He may not be the highest-volume shooter, but Monday’s matchup is a good one for any forward.

The Anaheim Ducks allow the most shots per game (33.3).

They have conceded 30+ shots in six of the last seven games.

Anaheim consistently allows teams to pepper its net with shots, so I’m expecting the same tonight for the Habs.

Suzuki has cleared this line in two of the past four and gets a nice plus-money price against the NHL’s most vulnerable team.

Picks made at 9:51 a.m. 12/09/2024.

NHL prop picks Dec. 9: Back Connor Bedard and Nick Suzuki on Monday

Two NHL stars on the rise headline my prop picks for Monday.

The pregame narrative: Connor Bedard has value to get on the score sheet against the struggling New York Rangers. Later on, Nick Suzuki has the chance to excel in a plus matchup.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 9.

NHL prop picks

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Best bet: Bedard to record a point (-136)