Spencer Closs

The Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets meet at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is a much better team at home, so I’m backing it against the spread over the Nets. I also like a prop pick on the Nets’ Cameron Johnson.

Check out my Raptors vs. Nets best bets for Dec. 19.

Raptors vs. Nets best bets

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Best bet: Raptors -4 (-110): The Raptors are 7-20 on the season but they do have a 6-8 home record.

Scottie Barnes is questionable despite originally being labelled out for “several weeks” by Shams Charania of ESPN.

I’m not sure Barnes will be cleared to go tonight, but his availability would have me feeling extra bullish about this pick.

After all, Toronto is 5-9 with Barnes and 2-11 without him.

I still like the Raptors in this spot with or without Barnes, though.

Brooklyn made a trade last week to send top ball handler Dennis Schroder to the Golden State Warriors. He averaged 18.4 points per game in 33.6 minutes as the Nets’ starting point guard.

That production is going to be hard to replace as the Nets received no healthy players back from the Warriors.

Brooklyn is also without Cam Thomas, who leads the Nets in scoring (24.7 PPG).

In the first game after the trade, the Nets lost by 29 at home to the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Over their last seven games overall, the Nets are 1-6 and failed to cover this spread in each of those losses.

Brooklyn started the season strong but is in a huge downward spiral lately.

Key stat: Toronto is 10-3-1 ATS at home this season, which is the second-best record in the NBA.

Quick pick

Johnson over 21.5 points (-125): As bad as the recent situation has been for the Nets, it’s been great for Johnson.

Since the start of December, the sharpshooting wing is 4-1 against this line, playing 30-plus minutes in four of those five games.

In the first game after the Schroder trade, Johnson was tasked with more offensive responsibility and the result was a career-high 11 made free throws on 13 attempts.

He managed to cash this line in that contest against the Cavs despite playing his fewest minutes (27) since Nov. 25.

The Raptors play at a fast pace and own the 11th-worst defensive rating in the NBA so there should be ample opportunity for Johnson.

At the very least, he’s playing at a high level, averaging 22.4 points, 14.4 field goal attempts and 6.4 free throw attempts over this last five games. All those numbers are well above his season averages.

Picks made at 2:23 p.m. on 12/19/24.

I’ve got prop bets on three point guards around the NBA on Monday.

The pregame narrative: Ayo Dosunmu has a strong matchup against the Toronto Raptors. Elsewhere, I like picks on star PGs LaMelo Ball and Cade Cunningham.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Dec. 16.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Dosunmu over 14.5 points (-108)

Zach LaVine is questionable tonight and this would be a smash play if he’s out, so that’s worth monitoring.

Even if LaVine is available, this is a great spot for the Bulls’ PG.

Without Scottie Barnes, the Raptors defence has been awful. Toronto’s 118.8 defensive rating sans Barnes would be among the worst in the league (Utah is 30th with a 119.8 rating), and the team is 2-10 in his absence.

For context, the Raps have a 115.9 defensive rating in 14 games with Barnes.

Besides that, Dosunmu has been playing at a high level.

Since becoming the starting PG on Nov. 22, he is 6-4 against this line while averaging 16.1 points on 61.8% shooting.

When he goes under this line lately, it isn’t due to poor play but rather a bad game script. That shouldn’t be the case on Monday against the Raptors.

Key stat: Point guards score 25.5 points per game against Toronto, according to Betting Pros.

Quick picks

Ball over 30.5 points/assists (-120): Ball is listed as questionable at the time of this writing, so there’s some caution with this pick.

But I had to jump in when I saw this line. There’s a shot he’s on a minutes restriction if he plays, but I’m not sure it matters.

Firstly, Ball is averaging 38.0 PA on the season and was on a tear before going down with an injury. Let’s take a look at his most recent stat lines:

• Nov. 27 vs. Miami: 32 points, 7 assists
• Nov. 25 vs. Orlando: 44 points 7 assists
• Nov. 23 vs. Milwaukee: 50 points, 10 assists
• Nov. 21 vs. Detroit: 35 points, 9 assists

Ball also leads all players in usage rate (38.5%), so I’m confident he’d be heavily involved if available.

Cunningham over 9.5 assists (-112): Cunningham has taken his playmaking to another level.

He has double-digit assists in eight of his last 10 games, which has boosted his season average to 9.3.

The former first-overall pick tallied 10-plus assists in just four of his first 12 games but has taken more of a playmaking role recently.

Miami is good at limiting point guards’ scoring production, holding the position to 22.5 points (fifth-fewest in the NBA).

That could force Cunningham into even more passing than usual, which should lead to an uptick in assist opportunities.

Picks made at 12:02 p.m. ET on 12/16/2024.