Spencer Closs

With the weekend comes a loaded slate of MLB games to enjoy.

The latest: The NL East is heating up as the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies continue their series at Citizens Bank Park. Later in the evening, the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Los Angeles Dodgers with a chance to climb closer to the NL West leaders heading into September.

Check out the latest MLB odds for Saturday, Aug. 31.

MLB odds: Aug. 31

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees

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Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals

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San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays

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Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers

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Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros

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New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins

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Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds

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Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

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Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants

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Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels

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Betting insights

• The Kansas City Royals are again trailing in the AL Central. They sit 2.5 games back of the Cleveland Guardians after last night’s 3-2 loss to the Houston Astros. KC tries to get it back tonight with Cole Ragans (3.28 ERA) on the mound. Yusei Kikuchi (4.39 ERA) starts opposite him.

• The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves host another exciting pitching duel. Zack Wheeler (2.75 ERA) gets the call for Philly but it won’t be easy against Max Fried (3.50 ERA) and the streaking Braves. Atlanta is 7-2 in its last nine games, making the NL East an interesting race.

• Another 19-run explosion seems unlikely in Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks, but it’s always a possibility with these two high-powered offences. Arizona scores the most runs per game (5.4) and L.A. the third most (5.0). Merrill Kelly (3.98 ERA) and Gavin Stone (3.33 ERA) could limit the runs tonight, but I wouldn’t be sure of it.

• The Seattle Mariners continue to rely on their strong pitching, which may be needed again tonight. Tyler Anderson (3.41 ERA) is having a strong season for the Los Angeles Angels but to nobody’s surprise, Seattle still carries the advantage. Exciting sophomore Bryan Woo (2.05 ERA) gets the call for the Mariners.

The Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners close the night behind two strong starting pitchers.

The pregame narrative: Bryce Miller makes the start for Seattle and I’m backing the over on his strikeouts prop. Ryan Pepiot has been strong for the Rays so a fade is in play for two of the Mariners bats on Monday.

Check out my Rays vs. Mariners prop picks for Aug. 26.

Rays vs. Mariners prop picks

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Best Bet: Miller over 6.5 strikeouts (+106)

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The offensive stats for both teams are not pretty so I’m starting by making a wager on Seattle’s big arm.

Miller isn’t a strikeout artist by any means but he still has a respectable 8.3 K/9 and Tampa Bay’s offence sits near the bottom of the majors in strikeouts per game (9.14).

Additionally, the Rays have been downright terrible against right-handed pitching all season. The lineup hits .224 against righties with a 24.9% K rate.

Miller has pitched into the sixth inning or further in 21 of 25 starts this year. Against Tampa Bay, he’ll have a prime opportunity to work late into this game and tally up the strikeouts.

Key stat: Three of the last four right-handed pitchers to start against the Rays have surpassed this total.

Quick picks

Rodriguez under 0.5 runs (-139): Julio Rodriguez has played 12 games since returning from injury and has scored a measly two runs.

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It’s been a combination of poor offensive play and being a part of one of the worst-scoring teams in baseball.

Seattle ranks fifth last in runs scored per game (3.9) and has just three guys on the roster with over 100 plate appearances hitting over .250 on the season.

Runs have come at a premium all year long and I expect nothing less with Ryan Pepiot starting for the Rays.

Pepiot has given up two or fewer runs in seven straight starts and is starting to pitch deeper into games as he finds his role as a solid MLB starter.

I don’t expect Rodriguez’s fortunes to change tonight.

Haniger under 0.5 hits (+100): Coming back to Pepiot, the righty throws primarily three pitches: a fastball (51%), changeup (22%) and slider (20%).

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Per Baseball Savant, here are Mitch Haniger’s batting averages against those pitches:

• Fastball, .205
• Changeup, .161
• Slider, .077

If Pepiot goes deep into this game as I expect he will, Haniger should have a rough night so at plus money, I’m willing to bet he goes hitless.

Picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET 08/26/2024.

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One moneyline favourite and two overs contribute to today’s MLB parlay picks.

The pregame narrative: The Minnesota Twins host the Atlanta Braves and I like them to win as the first leg in my parlay. To close it out, add the over on an alternate total in both the New York Yankees vs. the Washington Nationals and the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians game.

Check out the best MLB parlay picks for Monday, August 26.

MLB parlay picks

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Parlay: Twins moneyline + Yankees/Nationals over 8.5 runs + Royals/Guardians over 7.5 runs (+444)

Twins moneyline (-118): There are three main reasons why I’m backing Minnesota here.

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First but least importantly, the Twins are at home where they are 37-26, while the Braves are a lot closer to .500 at 34-32 on the road.

Next, they have the pitching advantage, at least in terms of recent form and consistency.

Bailey Ober (12-5, 3.54 ERA) is having a great season for Minnesota. In 24 starts this season, Ober has allowed more than three runs just five times.

Max Fried (7-7, 3.57 ERA) is having a strong season for the Braves as well but you wouldn’t be able to tell from his last six starts.

Atlanta is 1-5 in those outings and Fried owns a 5.51 ERA. The difference in consistency between these two starters is the reason for the discrepancy in their overall win/loss records.

Lastly, the Twins have the better offence. They score the fourth most runs per game in the majors (4.9) compared to the Braves who rank 15th (4.3).

Atlanta’s bats are just flat-out cold right now. The Braves have scored three or fewer runs in five of their last six games.

Other parlay picks

Yankees/Nationals over 8.5 runs (-134): Despite the Nationals being 59-72 this season, their offence isn’t actually half bad. They sit right in the middle of the pack, ranking 18th in runs scored per game (4.2).

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As mentioned by Avery Perri in his MLB prop picks for today, the Nationals strike out at the second-lowest rate against LHP since the all-star break (16.6%). They also own the seventh-best batting average (.271) against lefties in that span.

Nester Cortes (7-10, 4.00 ERA) is coming off back-to-back dominant outings but one was against the Chicago White Sox so I’m not putting much stock there.

I think the Nats can get to him and contribute a few runs to the total.

The real money maker here is the Yankees offence. They face Mitchell Parker (7-7, 4.26 ERA). The rookie is coming off a strong outing against the Colorado Rockies but gave up nine earned runs to the more potent Philadelphia Phillies lineup the start prior.

Since July 13, Parker has had three starts where he gave up five or more earned runs in three or fewer innings pitched.

Royals/Guardians over 7.5 runs (-150): Two struggling pitchers take the mound to face two good offences… I’ll take the over.

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Alec Marsh’s (7-7, 4.71 ERA) strong play to start the season has definitely faded. Since the start of June, Marsh has a 6.14 ERA and eight of the 10 games he started went over this total.

Logan Allen (8-4, 5.56 ERA) somehow has a positive win/loss record even with ugly stats. That shows the run support he received from the Cleveland offence when he’s on the bump.

A whopping 16 of the 19 games he’s started this season have gone over 7.5 runs.

Picks made at 11:45 a.m. on 08/26/24.

Two of the American League’s best teams go at it on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: The Houston Astros finish their visit with the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday. Both teams face an enticing pitching matchup and therefore I’m backing one slugger from each team in my picks for the game.

Check out my Astros vs. Orioles picks for Sunday Night Baseball on Aug. 25.

Astros vs. Orioles picks

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Best Bet: Altuve over 0.5 runs scored (-106)

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Jose Altuve has scored a run in all three games this series and I’m expecting him to make it four tonight.

In fact, the second baseman has scored nine runs in his last eight games overall and has a successful history against Orioles’ starter Dean Kramer. In 11 at-bats, Altuve has seven hits (.636 batting average) with three doubles and a home run. That equals a ridiculous 1.182 SLG

Kramer hasn’t been strong overall this season (6-9, 4.30 ERA) and Altuve historically has had his number.

Hitting leadoff is always a benefit when taking these props and Altuve does exactly that. He’s gotten on base in eight straight outings which is why he’s been scoring so many runs.

Houston’s top RBI producers Yanier Diaz (71) and Yordan Alvarez (67) are hitting .333 and .429 respectively against Kramer. Expect Altuve to reach base and give those big bats ample opportunity to send him home.

Key stat: Altuve has scored 74 runs in 125 games played this season.

Quick pick

Mountcastle over 1.5 bases (+118): If Ryan Mountcastle is good to go tonight, I can’t miss out on his bases prop.

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He’s currently nursing a wrist injury so worst case scenario, this bet voids and bettors get their money back.

Mountcastle is hitting 9-for-20 off of Yusei Kikuchi with four home runs. I wouldn’t be surprised if the former Toronto Blue Jay has nightmares about this matchup from his stint in the AL East.

Kikuchi has been good in his time with the Astros so far but this Orioles lineup is just too good against him to assume he will be successful tonight.

Anthony Santander, Adley Rutschman and Mountcastle each have four homers off of Kikuchi with the latter leading the charge with a .450 average. I expect him to have a strong night at the plate.

Picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET 08/25/2024.

One slugger and one starting pitcher make up today’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Sunday equals another getaway day in the majors but the lighter schedule still provides two prop bets. Firstly, I’m backing Francisco Lindor to score a run while also expecting Bryan Woo to have a strong start against the San Francisco Giants.

Find out why in the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 25.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Lindor over 0.5 runs (-121)

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The Mets’ slugger has quietly been on a heater in August. Since the start of the month, Lindor is batting .340 with 18 runs scored in 22 games played.

This is also a matchup I feel that he can exploit. In 22 plate appearances against Martin Perez, Lindor reached base 12 times (seven hits, five walks).

Since he hits out of the leadoff spot for the New York Mets, getting on base would mean ample opportunities for the big bats to drive him in.

Earlier in the season, Perez had a start against the Mets in which he was decent (5.2 innings pitched, six hits, three earned runs) but Lindor still managed to go 2-for-4 and score a run in the process. That led his team to a 6-3 win.

He was also hitting third in the order at that point of the season and wasn’t on the hot streak that he is right now.

Key stat: Lindor has reached base seven times, leading to four runs scored, across the first three games of the Padres’ series.

Quick pick

Woo over 6.5 strikeouts (+125): I’m backing a strong arm and fading the Giants’ offence here.

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Woo is having a fantastic second MLB season. He’s currently boasting a 5-2 record with a 2.12 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP.

His 2.9% walk rate and 2.1% barrel rate both sit inside the 99th percentile, per Baseball Savant. That shows his incredible ability to keep hitters off the basepath.

It’s also the reason he’s able to get deep into ball games (six-plus innings pitched in each of his last four starts). Going late into this game would mean more potential batters to send packing.

The downfall here would be that Woo hasn’t been an elite strikeout artist this season (6.8 K/9) but things have been better lately and I think he has the matchup here to run up the Ks.

Across those four previously mentioned starts in August, his K/9 has been much better (8.0). That includes starts against the Dodgers (five Ks) and the Phillies (six Ks).

San Fran ranks worse than both of those teams in strikeouts per game (8.7). That number also elevates when the side plays on the road (9.5).

The Giants are hitting .235 against righties with a 24.5% strikeout rate. I think Woo is in store for a strong outing this evening.

Picks made at 11:36 a.m. ET on 08/25/2024.

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The Toronto Blue Jays go for the sweep of the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto won yesterday’s game behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a strong pitching performance from Bowden Francis. I’m expecting Vladdy to clear his bases total once again today while fading Tyler Anderson against the streaking Jays.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Angels on Aug. 25.

Blue Jays picks vs. Angels

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Best Bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (-110)

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This is a bet I will take until the well runs dry and that doesn’t appear to be happening any time soon.

Yesterday, Guerrero recorded an RBI double in the bottom of the first to make this prop a sweat-free winner.

He wasn’t finished there as the slugging first baseman mashed a homer in the bottom of the eighth, bringing his total bases to six for the game.

Vladdy’s cashed this prop in four of his five games against the Angels this season including an Aug. 14 appearance where he met today’s starter for the Angels, Anderson.

Guerrero had a single and a double off of the lefty before adding a home run in the ninth inning to cap off an amazing night.

The truth is he’s had a lot of those over his last 51 games. In that timeframe, he is hitting .371 with 74 hits in 197 at-bats. A whopping 47 of those have gone for extra bases.

Since the calendar turned to August, Vladdy has cleared this total in 12-of-20 games played.

Key stat: Guerrero is hitting .326 with a .616 SLG against LHP this season.

Quick pick

Anderson under 17.5 outs (+123): Firstly, the Blue Jays have looked like a different team on offence since August 11.

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Their bats are red hot with an MLB-leading 24 home runs since August 11. In that span, they also top the majors in extra-base hits (54).

That brings me to Angels’ starter Anderson (10-11, 3.40 ERA). As eluded to earlier, the lefty was shaken up in a matchup against Toronto on Aug. 14 where he gave up seven earned runs and fell just shy of this mark, pitching 5.2 innings (17 outs).

He followed that up with a start against the Kansas City Royals and got smoked again. The result was five earned runs on 12 hits.

Anderson’s given up three or more runs in five of his last seven outings and isn’t producing the kind of numbers you see from a starter going deep into games.

The other good news is the Angels needed only two relievers in yesterday’s loss and have a fresh bullpen. So they won’t need to take any chances if things go south for their starter.

Picks made at 10:34 a.m. on 08/25/24.