Only a few competitors remain as the US Open reaches the quarterfinal stage.
The pregame narrative: Jannik Sinner has been on a tear which is why he’s the target of my best bet. Elsewhere, I’m backing Iga Swiatek to dominate while betting on Grigor Dimitrov and Frances Tiafoe to go over their total games.
Check out my top US Open quarterfinal picks.
US Open quarterfinal picks
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Best Bet: Sinner -1.5 sets (-125)
The world’s No. 1 ranked player has lived up to the status at the US Open and continues to dominate on this surface.
He’s now 52-5 on the year with an incredible 27-2 record on outdoor hard courts. He’s played 13 sets across four rounds of the tournament and won 12 of them.
The same can be said for his opponent Daniil Medvedev, but the recent history between the two players has me excited to jump in on the Italian at his top form.
Sinner has five wins in his last six matches against Medvedev with the one loss coming on grass at Wimbledon. The wins all come on some sort of hardcourt surface. Two of the three on outdoor hard courts were won in straight sets.
As the 23-year-old matures, he seemingly has figured out his Russian counterpart.
Before his US Open success, Medvedev lost three of his last four matches on this surface. He has yet to face a seeded player at the tournament whereas Sinner disposed of 14th-ranked Tommy Paul in straight sets.
Medvedev can win one set against the Italian and this bet can still cash, but I expect the favourite to win comfortably.
Key stat: Sinner has won his last eight completed matches, covering this spread in six of them.
Other picks
Swiatek -1.5 sets (-134): Swiatek has been playing to her standard and she has a wealth of success against her opponent Jessica Pegula.
The world’s No. 1 ranked women’s player is 29-4 on outdoor hard courts and is rolling at the US Open, winning every set thus far. She’s held 33-of-35 service points (94%) through the first four rounds and looked unbeatable in her last few matches.
As well as Pegula is also playing, I’m backing the recent success we’ve seen from the flourishing Polish star.
In Swiatek’s last eight encounters with her opponent, she’s won six times. Five of the wins were on this same playing surface.
The single 2024 meeting went the way of Swiatek as she won dominantly in straight sets (6-1, 6-0). Pegula taking just one game in that meeting gives me concern for her in this matchup.
I mean, who has had success against the No. 1 seed on outdoor hard courts? The answer is no one. She carries a 113-18 record on the surface since the start of 2022.
Dimitrov/Tiafoe over 39.5 games (-120): If you can’t wait until tomorrow’s action, here’s one pick for tonight.
Dimitrov has been in form at the US Open, dropping only two sets in his first four matches. And both came against the only seeded player he faced so far, Andrey Rublev, in the Round of 16.
Tiafoe on the other hand has won back-to-back matches as the underdog and most recently halted the momentum of Alexei Popyrin who was playing at a world-class level.
It’s hard to pick a winner between these two but I am backing a closely contested match. After all, that has been the result when they met on the outdoor hard courts in the past.
Both of their career meetings on this surface went over this number.
US Open picks made at 12:45 a.m. on 09/03/24
