Jordan Horrobin

Three days after Rafael Devers hit his first home run for the San Francisco Giants, I’m backing the left-hitting slugger to go yard again.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Devers faces Miami Marlins starter Cal Quantrill in a matchup that has gone Devers’ way more often than not in the past. Elsewhere, Brandon Nimmo will dig in against a familiar foe for the second time in a week.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 24, which also includes a prediction on Max Muncy.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Nimmo to hit a home run (+440)

Spencer Strider might be back, which is a potential problem for this wager. But I still think there’s a lot to like.

• Yes, Strider carved up the Mets last week (6.0 innings, five hits, one run, eight strikeouts). He now has 21 Ks over his past 12.0 innings of work, with just one run allowed in that span. But this will also be the Mets’ second time seeing Strider in six days.

• Nimmo has had more looks at Strider than anyone on New York’s roster. The outfielder is 9-for-19 (.474) vs. Strider with five extra-base hits, including two HRs.

• New York’s Citi Field is the sixth-most homer-friendly park for right-hitting players, per Baseball Savant. Righties hit 10% more HRs at Citi Field than in the average park elsewhere.

Nimmo doubled off Strider last week in Atlanta and added a 370-foot flyout against Braves reliever Dylan Lee.

Nimmo’s familiarity in this matchup, especially after just seeing Strider a handful of days ago, is a serious draw for this pick.

So is the fact that the Mets’ No. 2 hitter is on a tear right now. Over his past 22 games, he’s homered seven times and posted a .318/.383/.612 slash line.

Key stat: Nimmo is slugging .502 vs. right-handed pitchers this year, with 12 HRs in 224 plate appearances.

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Best HR predictions

Muncy to hit a home run (+390): As if the Dodgers needed something else to break their way, Muncy has turned into a wrecking ball recently for the defending World Series champs.

Over his past 24 games (20 starts), Muncy has produced a .329/.467/.714 slash line with eight HRs.

Now he’ll play in the thin air at Colorado’s Coors Field, where the ball travels better than anywhere else.

Muncy has 13 career HRs at Coors in 51 games (46 starts). He also has four homers in his career against Rockies starter German Marquez.

Devers to hit a home run (+350): Devers hit his first HR as a Giant over the weekend, and it came against his old team. That was a nice reminder of the type of power San Francisco is investing in.

The designated hitter ranks in the 91st percentile or better in xSLG, barrel rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

His new home ballpark isn’t extra hitter-friendly, but Devers has the pop to overcome locational challenges.

Also, according to Swish Analytics, there’s a strong gust of wind blowing out tonight at Oracle Park (10-12 mph).

Devers has done plenty of damage against Miami’s Quantrill, going 6-for-11 with a home run and three doubles.

MLB home run picks made at 10:48 a.m. ET on 06/24/2025.

After an off-day yesterday, the Toronto Blue Jays are on the road to face the Cleveland Guardians for a three-game series.

The pregame narrative: Cleveland took two of three from Toronto last month at Rogers Centre in a series where all three games were decided by two or fewer runs. Eric Lauer will start for the Blue Jays, looking to bolster his rotation spot that was earned earlier in June.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Guardians for June 24, featuring Ernie Clement and George Springer.

Blue Jays picks vs. Guardians

Best Bet: Clement over 1.5 total bases (+107)

Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Kyle Schwarber, Paul Goldschmidt, and … Ernie Clement.

Based on wRC+, those are the top five hitters in MLB against left-handed pitching.

And Clement (236 wRC+ vs. LHPs) is actually second, with a .434/.470/.724 slash line. He’s a bit of an unsung success story for the Jays, but this is worth paying attention to.

Clement doesn’t swing hard or hit the ball hard. He’s in the bottom-10th percentile in bat speed, hard-hit rate and barrel rate, per Baseball Savant.

But he still knows how to generate quality contact, evidenced by his 98th-percentile squared-up rate. That means he’s often connecting with the sweet spot, which is always a good thing.

Oh, and he’s a bona fide free-swinger who rarely strikes out:

• 7th-percentile walk rate (4.2%)
• 7th-percentile chase rate (37.5%)
• 95th-percentile K rate (11.1%)
• 92nd-percentile whiff rate (14.9%)

Clement has been on quite a tear since the Blue Jays’ late-May homestand. Since May 29, he’s batting .416 with a 1.040 OPS … and only one walk. He’s 14-7 vs. this total bases prop in 21 starts over that span.

This swing-happy infielder should be in a great spot to succeed with another southpaw on the mound.

Key stat: Clement is 2-for-5 with two doubles vs. Logan Allen.

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Quick pick

Springer over 0.5 RBI (+155): He’s not on a Clement-calibre hot streak right now, but Springer is in a groove that also coincides with Toronto’s late-May homestand.

In 20 starts since May 29, Springer is slugging .493 with 14 RBI. He’s 11-9 vs. this prop in that span.

Springer will be somewhere in the Nos. 3-5 spots in Toronto’s lineup tonight. With the likes of Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in front, that’s a nice spot to be for RBI opportunities.

Against Allen, Springer is 3-for-7 with two home runs and two walks.

Lauer over 4.5 strikeouts (+123): After mainly serving as a bulk reliever for the Blue Jays, Lauer will make his third turn through the starting rotation tonight.

And he’s earned it.

The left-hander has a 2.29 ERA and a 9.2 K/9 in 10 outings this season. He’s coming off 5.0 innings of one-run ball, in which he struck out eight batters.

Lauer crested the 70-pitch mark in both previous starts in June, and I’m hoping the leash on him will have even more length in this matchup.

But as long as he pitches into the fifth inning or deeper — in what would be his third straight start doing so — he should have a solid chance of cashing this bet.

The Guardians have the eighth-highest strikeout rate in MLB vs. lefties (24.9%).

Blue Jays picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 06/24/2025.

There should be plenty of offence in Monday night’s matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels.

The pregame narrative: The over/under is set at 9 runs, which might be low considering both starters (Walker Buehler, Jack Kochanowicz) have ERAs north of 5.30. Boston is 7-3 in its past 10 games despite dropping back-to-back games entering Modnay.

Check out my Red Sox vs. Angels prop bets for June 23, featuring Mike Trout and Wilyer Abreu.

Red Sox vs. Angels prop bets

Best Bet: Trout over 1.5 total bases (+100)

For a long time, any praise piled onto Trout has needed the “when healthy” qualifier attached to it.

From 2021-24, Trout played in just 41.0% of the Angels’ games. He posted a .575 SLG and was on a 45-homer pace in that span, but he missed a ton of time.

Trout has missed 26 games so far this season, but when healthy, he’s still crushing the ball.

According to Baseball Savant, Trout ranks in the 95th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xSLG and launch angle sweet spot rate.

His actual power numbers are the lowest of his career. But if you buy the batted-ball metrics, there’s plenty of encouraging aspects to draw upon.

For instance, Trout’s actual SLG (.443) is miles behind his expected SLG (.583). That 140-point difference is the third-largest in MLB.

Trout’s main weakness is a high strikeout rate, but he’s facing a pitcher tonight who shouldn’t be much of a concern in that category.

Buehler ranks in the 16th percentile in whiff rate and 37th percentile in K rate. In his past five starts, he’s allowed 25 runs on 35 hits over 23.0 innings.

Key Stat: Trout is averaging 1.5 bases/game in 21 starts since returning from the injured list on May 30.

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Best MLB picks

Abreu under 0.5 runs (-125): Even though I think this game has plenty of offensive potential, I’m skeptical about Abreu’s involvement.

Over his past 25 games, the second-year outfielder has a .197/.213/.310 slash line and a 30.7% K rate.

He’s not an everyday starter, so a decent chunk of those games involved him pinch-hitting off the bench. Still, he’s 13-4 to the under on this prop in recent starts.

It’s not just that Abreu is struggling to get on base. He’s also typically batting in the Nos. 3-5 range for the Red Sox, meaning he’s expected to drive runners in more so than score himself.

Red Sox vs. Angels prop bets made at 2:07 p.m. ET on 06/23/2025.

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Manny Machado is the late-night headliner in Monday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Machado loves to tag left-handed pitching, so he should be poised to take advantage of tonight’s matchup. Elsewhere, Spencer Schwellenbach looks to pile up punchouts against the New York Mets for the second time this week.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 23, which also includes a prediction on Cody Bellinger.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Machado over 1.5 total bases (-105)

I think this is a fair price for a guy who mashes lefties and is having himself a solid month of production.

• So far in June, Machado has a .298/.351/.548 slash line. He’s averaging 2.2 bases per game and is 11-10 vs. this prop.

• On the season, Machado has a .278/.363/.582 slash line against left-handed pitchers. His 163 wRC+ against southpaws is the best among Padres hitters.

Nationals starter Mitchell Parker is spiralling right now, taking the loss in five consecutive starts.

In four road starts since May 1, Parker has a 5.93 ERA and a .754 opponent OPS.

Machado, 32, is still mashing the ball with the best of them in his 14th MLB season. He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in average exit velocity, xBA and xSLG, per Baseball Savant.

With a platoon advantage against a struggling pitcher, a near-even price for a multi-base game from Machado is worth a look.

Key stat: Machado is averaging 1.9 bases/game and is 41-36 (53.2%) vs. this prop.

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Best MLB picks

Schwellenbach over 5.5 Ks (-115): Schwellenbach is working deep into games and mowing down plenty of batters right now. This line is definitely on the low side in my view.

• Over his past eight starts, the right-hander has a 2.77 ERA while striking out 6.9 batters per game. He’s completed 6.0 or more innings in all eight of those starts.

• Schwellenbach has 8+ Ks in four of his past five starts.

The Mets are a low-strikeout bunch, posting the ninth-lowest K rate in the majors. But Schwellenbach just racked up eight Ks over 7.0 innings when he faced them last Tuesday.

Bellinger over 1.5 bases (+112): If you think a lefty-on-lefty matchup is a problem for Bellinger, think again.

The outfielder is 24-for-72 (.333) with a .528 SLG vs. left-handers this season. For his career, he’s got a solid .785 OPS against southpaws.

Reds lefty Nick Lodolo also happens to have reverse splits, meaning he tends to fare better against right-hitting players. LHHs have a .316/.379/.421 slash line against him this season.

Bellinger was batting below the Mendoza line in his first 30 games, but he’s picked it up since then:

• First 30 games: .198 BA, .340 SLG, 1.2 bases/game

• Past 40 games: .291 BA, .500 SLG, 2.0 bases/game

Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park is already one of the most offence-friendly venues in the league. And with expected temperatures of 28 C and above all night, the ball should be flying.

MLB prop picks made at 12:18 p.m. ET on 06/23/2025.

Coming off a two-homer game yesterday, Seiya Suzuki is one of my favourite MLB home run picks for Monday night.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Suzuki’s Chicago Cubs are on the road to face the St. Louis Cardinals for the first time this season, and the conditions are ripe for the ball to fly. The same is true in Cincinnati, where Reds slugger Elly De La Cruz looks to continue his impressive month of production.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 23, which also includes a prediction on Taylor Ward.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: De La Cruz to hit a home run (+240)

There’s a heatwave going on in many parts of North America right now, including the Midwest.

That’s a plus for HR picks.

High temperatures mean the air is less dense, allowing the baseball to travel further. So as long as players don’t wither away, the conditions for hitting a home run are even better than usual.

On Saturday afternoon, De La Cruz vomited during the fourth inning of a game in St. Louis due to the extreme heat. But that didn’t stop him from homering three innings later.

It’ll be 34 C (or 94 F) for first pitch in Cincinnati tonight, according to Swish Analytics. And the temperature is expected to stay at 28 C or higher throughout the game.

De La Cruz is blazing hot right now, too.

• In June, De La Cruz has a .309/.405/.676 slash line.

• He has homered in 6 of 19 games this month, including 5 of 10 since June 11.

Tonight, the switch-hitting slugger will bat from the left side, where he’s a far better hitter. He’s slugging .557 as a LHH this season (vs. a .362 SLG from the right side).

Key stat: Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park allows 33% more home runs to left-hitting players than average (No. 1 in MLB), per Baseball Savant.

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Best HR predictions

Ward to hit a home run (+400): Ward is having an all-or-nothing type of season, with some solid power numbers despite a low contact rate.

He’s tied for 10th in MLB in home runs (19) but ranks in the 16th percentile in strikeout rate (26.8%). And his .210 BA ranks 154th among 161 qualified hitters.

One powered-up swing is all he’ll need, though, and I think he can find it in this matchup.

• Red Sox starter Walker Buehler has allowed seven HRs in his past five starts. Ward is 1-for-5 with a HR vs. Buehler.

• Angel Stadium allows 16% more homers than average to RHHs (No. 5 in MLB).

Suzuki to hit a home run (+430): St. Louis’ Busch Stadium isn’t a very homer-friendly park, but the temperature will be in the 30s all night tonight with the wind blowing out gently to left field.

For a right-hitting slugger like Suzuki, that’ll play.

It also helps that the Cardinals will have a left-hander (Matthew Liberatore) on the mound. Against LHPs, Suzuki ranks fourth in SLG (.708) and fifth in wRC+ (205).

The outfielder has found a new gear as a power hitter in his age-30 season. He’s already at 20 HR, which is one shy of his career high, and we’re still three weeks away from the all-star break.

MLB home run picks made at 9:08 a.m. ET on 06/23/2025.