Avery Perri

Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.

Knicks vs. Celtics prop picks Game 1: Bet on Mikal Bridges, Derrick White in series opener

Knicks vs. Celtics picks

The New York Knicks and Boston Celtics meet for a marquee matchup in the second round.

The pregame narrative: Boston looks every bit capable of defending its title after dispatching the Orlando Magic in five games. New York, an underdog in this series and in Game 1, will need its best to advance to the conference final for the first time since 2000.

Check out my Knicks vs. Celtics prop picks featuring Mikal Bridges and Derrick White in Game 1 on May 5.

Knicks vs. Celtics prop picks

Best Bet: Bridges over 5.5 rebounds and assists (-139)

The Knicks took a big swing on acquiring Bridges last offseason for moments like this. After all, you don’t give up five first-round picks for a guy with the hopes of winning one playoff round.

Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson are New York’s top dogs, but Tom Thibodeau loves to give his entire starting five plenty of run.

Bridges averaged 38.7 minutes in the opening round, and he made great use of that playing time:

  • 16.2 PPG
  • 5.0 RPG
  • 1.8 APG

The swingman cleared this line in four straight games to close out New York’s series against the Indiana Pacers, logging seven-plus rebounds and assists in each of those contests.

Bridges averaged 3.0 rebounds and 5.6 assists (8.6 R/A) during the final 10 games of the regular season, clearing this line eight times.

That includes a game against the Celtics where he logged four rebounds and four assists.

Boston is a tough matchup. It owned the 10th-best home defensive rating in the regular season and is currently second in the playoffs.

That’s baked into this line, though, and I can’t look past the amount of run Bridges will get on Monday.

Key stat: Bridges is 16-4 against this line in his last 20 games.

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Game 1 prop prediction

White over 3.5 threes (+117): Joe Mazzulla’s offensive philosophy is built on taking a ton of 3-pointers.

Boston attempted a league-high 47.3 threes per game during the regular season. That’s five more than the second-place Golden State Warriors and nearly 14 more than the Knicks.

It might seem excessive, but why would the Celtics do anything else when they’re shooting a collective 36.9% from deep (eighth-best in the NBA)?

White is a big part of Boston’s deep-ball identity, averaging 3.5 makes on 9.1 attempts (38.3%) during the regular season.

The Knicks allowed opponents to shoot 36.4% from deep, which was tied for the ninth-highest mark in the NBA.

White has cleared this line in four straight games vs. New York, shooting a combined 19-for-35 in those contests (54.2%).

Knicks vs. Celtics prop picks made at 1:28 p.m. ET 05/03/2025.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs SGP predictions Game 1: Bet on Matthews and Marchand at +400

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers reignite their rivalry in Game 1 on Monday.

The pregame narrative: The Maple Leafs return to the second round for the second time in the “Core Four” era, facing the same opponent as in 2023, when Florida bested Toronto in five games. Both teams got out to 2-0 series leads in the opening round and look to start on the right foot again.

Auston Matthews and Brad Marchand are featured in my Panthers vs. Maple Leafs playoff SGP predictions for Game 1 on May 5.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs predictions

Parlay: Under 7.5 goals | Matthews to score 1+ points | Marchand to score 1+ points (+400)

Under 7.5 goals (-480): Toronto’s first game of the playoffs was a barn-burning 6-2 win over the Ottawa Senators. But since then, Craig Berube’s team has committed to playing low-event hockey.

Each of the Maple Leafs’ next five games went under this total, with three featuring four or fewer goals in regulation. And with the defending champs in town, I expect nothing short of a war.

Anthony Stolarz was solid in his first playoff series as a starter, posting a 2.21 GAA and .901 SV%. Those were identical numbers to Sergei Bobrovsky, who has multiple Vezina Trophies under his belt.

I don’t expect either goaltender to be unsolvable on Monday, but I do believe teasing this game total up a few goals gives enough wiggle room.

So far in the playoffs, Toronto (22.61) and Florida (22.4) have allowed the third-fewest and second-fewest shots against per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick.

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NHL SGP legs

Matthews to score 1+ points (-265): Matthews was invisible the last time he played Florida in the playoffs, logging just two assists in a series Toronto lost, 4-1.

But the Maple Leafs’ captain had a productive opening round, and I expect that to continue:

  • 2 goals, 5 assists
  • 26 scoring chances (6th in playoffs)
  • 3.32 expected goals (9th in playoffs)

Matthew was 5-1 in this prop market vs. Ottawa, and his line with Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies generated a team-high 58 chances.

He also logged three points on a power play, which had a 35.3% success rate (third-best in playoffs).

Marchand to score 1+ points (+128): Toronto managed to avoid its boogeyman in the Boston Bruins this season, but it couldn’t escape that team’s long-time catalyst, Marchand.

The veteran winger has new threads and a smaller role with Florida, but he’s been effective.

  • Marchand had four points in the opening round, cashing this bet in back-to-back games to close out Tampa Bay.
  • He has points in six of 10 games dating back to the regular season, including a game against Toronto where he logged an assist.

Marchand personifies all of the Maple Leafs’ playoff demons, and I expect him to be a menace all series long.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs predictions made at 10:00 a.m. ET 05/05/2025.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs prop picks Game 1: Back Matthew Knies in Monday’s series opener

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs picks

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers begin their second-round series on Monday night at Scotiabank Arena.

The pregame narrative: Starting on the right foot will be key for the Maple Leafs, who aim to advance to the conference finals for the first time in the “Core Four” era. The reigning champion Panthers have been to back-to-back Stanley Cup finals and are favoured to win the series opener.

Matthew Knies is my best Panthers vs. Maple Leafs prop pick for Game 1 on May 5.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs picks

Best bet: Knies to register a point (-129)

Toronto’s Core Four has become a Fab Five with how Knies is playing.

The third-year winger broke out with a career-high 29 goals and 58 points this season. Knies flashed his scoring touch in the opening round with three goals against the Ottawa Senators, including this beauty in Game 4:

https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1916289757711081488

His physicality and size are exactly what Toronto needs going up against a team like Florida, and I expect Craig Berube to lean on the youngster.

Of course, Knies will get plenty of minutes regardless while playing alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on the top line.

That unit generated a team-high 58 chances and 2.89 xG in the opening round, per Natural Stat Trick.

Knies is also on the team’s first power-play unit, which clicked at a 35.3% rate against Ottawa (second-best in playoffs entering play on May 4).

Based on his outsized opportunity, this line seems like a steal.

Key stat: Knies has 42 points in 48 games since Jan. 1.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs prop picks made at 1:12 p.m. ET 05/04/2025.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs prop picks Game 1: Back Knies and Lundell in Monday’s series opener

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs picks

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers begin their second-round series on Monday night at Scotiabank Arena.

The pregame narrative: Starting on the right foot will be key for the Maple Leafs, who aim to advance to the conference finals for the first time in the “Core Four” era. The reigning champion Panthers have been to back-to-back Stanley Cup finals and are favoured to win the series opener.

Matthew Knies and Anton Lundell are my Panthers vs. Maple Leafs prop picks for Game 1 on May 5.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs picks

Best bet: Knies to register a point (-129)

Toronto’s Core Four has become a Fab Five with how Knies is playing.

The third-year winger broke out with a career-high 29 goals and 58 points this season. Knies flashed his scoring touch in the opening round with three goals against the Ottawa Senators, including this beauty in Game 4:

His physicality and size are exactly what Toronto needs going up against a team like Florida, and I expect Craig Berube to lean on the youngster.

Of course, Knies will get plenty of minutes regardless while playing alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on the top line.

That unit generated a team-high 58 chances and 2.89 xG in the opening round, per Natural Stat Trick.

Knies is also on the team’s first power-play unit, which clicked at a 35.3% rate against Ottawa (second-best in playoffs entering play on May 4).

Based on his outsized opportunity, this line seems like a steal.

Key stat: Knies has 42 points in 48 games since Jan. 1.

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Game 1 prop prediction

Lundell over 1.5 shots (-136): Lundell isn’t the first, second, or even 10th name you think of when looking at Florida’s roster. But he’s important, centring the third line alongside Brad Marchand and Eetu Luostarinen.

Lundell averaged 16:38 of ice time in the opening round and had at least one shot in every outing, clearing this total in Games 3-5.

Toronto has done a good job of limiting high-danger chances but is still giving up a lot of shot attempts (60.46 per 60, sixth-most in NHL playoffs).

Lundell had six shots in his last game against the Leafs.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs prop picks made at 1:12 p.m. ET 05/04/2025.

Pacers vs. Cavaliers SGP predictions Game 1: Back Nembhard and Mobley at +300

Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions

Round 2 of the NBA playoffs begins on Sunday when the Cleveland Cavaliers host the Indiana Pacers.

The pregame narrative: Both teams look to stay hot after dominating their opening-round opponents. The Pacers toppled the Milwaukee Bucks in five but are an 8.5-point underdog in Game 1 against the No. 1 seed Cavaliers, which just swept the Miami Heat.

Andrew Nembhard and Evan Mobley feature in my Pacers vs. Cavaliers SGP predictions on May 4.

Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions

Parlay: Pacers +10.5 | Nembhard 10+ points | Mobley over 17.5 points (+290)

Pacers +10.5 (-165): Cleveland has been the best in the conference by a long shot this season, but that doesn’t mean it’ll coast past Indiana.

The Pacers just toppled the Giannis Antetokounmpo-led Bucks and have sneakily been one of the league’s best teams since the all-star break:

  • 24-10 record (tied third-most in NBA)
  • +5.8 net rating (seventh-best in NBA)

Over that same span, Cleveland is 24-8 with a +10.3 net rating. That’s better, but is it 10.5 points better? I’m not so sure.

Indiana is 3-1 against Cleveland this year and covered this number in the outlying loss. The Pacers have covered this number in 21 of their last 24 games.

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NBA SGP legs

Nembhard 10+ points (-225): Tyrese Haliburton runs Indiana’s offence, but I won’t try and guess if he wants to shoot tonight.

There are games where Haliburton is content as a facilitator, and that can make taking his point and 3-point props risky. So instead, I’ll turn to his backcourt partner, Nembhard, who was money against the Bucks in Round 1:

  • 15.0 PPG
  • 49.2 FG%
  • 50.0 3PT%
  • 32.2 MPG

Nembhard reached the 15-point milestone in four of five games, so he should be live to clear this teased-down number on Sunday.

The Canadian is 2-2 against this line vs. Cleveland this year, but is taking 3.5 more shots per game in the playoffs than regular season.

Mobley over 17.5 points (-125): Indiana’s defence improved this season, but its one big weakness has been in the mid-range.

The Pacers allowed opponents to shoot 45.1% from that area of the court, which ranked 23rd in the league, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Mobley does a fair amount of damage from that area and is coming off a hyper-efficient series against the Heat, where he shot 59.5% from the field and 47.1% from deep.

The power forward scored 22 and 16 points against Indiana this year, shooting above 60.0% in each game.

Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions made at 10:52 a.m. ET 05/04/2025.

Warriors vs. Rockets SGP predictions Game 7: Back Butler, Curry and VanVleet in +290 ticket

Warriors vs. Rockets predictions

The Houston Rockets host the Golden State Warriors on Sunday in a winner-take-all Game 7.

The pregame narrative: Houston rallied behind Fred VanVleet, who scored 55 combined points facing elimination, to erase a 3-1 series deficit. The Rockets look to avoid a fifth straight playoff elimination at the hands of Steph Curry and are a 2.5-point favourite as of Sunday morning.

Jimmy Butler, Curry and VanVleet factor into my +290 Warriors vs. Rockets SGP predictions for Game 7 on May 4.

Warriors vs. Rockets predictions

Parlay: Under 210.5 points | Curry 20+ points | VanVleet 2+ threes | Butler 6+ rebounds (+290)

Under 215.5 points (-295): Every inch of the court will be contested on Sunday, and I’m expecting a rock fight.

  • Houston and Golden State both ranked inside the top 11 in defensive rating and opponent field-goal percentage during the regular season.
  • They’re averaging 93.92 possessions a game this series, in the middle of the eight first-round matchups. For context, the Warriors and Rockets played around a 99-possession pace during the regular season.

The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between this teams. The over did cash in Games 4-6 but one of those games totalled 215 points and one was a blowout where starters were rested in the second half.

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NBA SGP legs

Curry 20+ points (-375): Curry has ripped the hearts out of Rockets fans for a literal decade and now has a chance to twist the knife again.

The guard is averaging 24.3 PPG this series and has cleared this line in four of six games. He only played 23 minutes in one of the outliers and took just 13 shots (scoring 17 points) in the other.

I can’t imagine a scenario where either of those happens in Game 7.

Curry will be playing max minutes and firing at will, and is also going up against a team which allowed the most PPG to point guards this season, per Fantasy Pros.

He has reached this milestone in 22 of his last 25 playoff games.

VanVleet 2+ threes (-480): I was debating taking VanVleet 3+ threes — which would bring this wager from +290 to +440 — but am opting for some safety with this heavily-juiced leg.

But you can make a strong argument to take on more risk, because the PG’s performance has been night-and-day since Game 3:

  • Game 1-3: 11.3 PPG, 20.7 3PT% (6-of-29)
  • Game 4-6: 26.7 PPG, 66.7 3PT% (18-of-27)

VanVleet has hit three-plus 3s in four straight games, logging six, four, and eight in his last three outings. He’s attempting 9.3 threes per game, so this should be a cinch even if he has an awful shooting night.

Butler 6+ rebounds (-182): Butler has been right around this line all series.

He has five-plus boards in every contest (excluding Game 2, where he left early with an injury), going 2-2 against this line.

Starting Draymond Green at the No. 5 makes Golden State an undersized group. That helps Houston rebound, but it also affords opportunities to the 6-foot-7 Butler, who plays with a dogged determination.

Butler had a series-high nine rebounds in Game 6, and I expect him to build off that on Sunday.

Warriors vs. Rockets predictions made at 10:00 a.m. ET 05/04/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 2: Bet on Skubal to go deep against Angels, Ray to punch out Rockies

MLB prop picks

Tarik Skubal headlines Friday’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: The reigning AL Cy Young is off to a solid start and draws an A-plus matchup against the downtrodden Los Angeles Angels. I’m banking on Skubal pitching deep into that ballgame, and I also have prop bets on Alex Bregman and Robbie Ray.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 2.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Skubal over 18.5 outs (+137)

Pitching into the seventh inning isn’t commonplace in today’s game, but Skubal has the arsenal and matchup to make it happen tonight.

The fireballing lefty hasn’t missed a beat after an award-winning 2024. Skubal got roughed up by the Los Angeles Dodgers in his first start and has been stellar since.

  • 1.52 ERA in five starts
  • .223 opponent BA
  • 11.71 K/9

Skubal only cleared this line in one of those outings, throwing 7.0 shutout innings against the Milwaukee Brewers. But he had also landed on exactly 18 outs (6.0 IP) twice.

The Angels are one of baseball’s worst offensive teams, and they especially struggle against lefties. Los Angeles is batting .204 (27th) with a 59 wRC+ (29th) against LHP this season.

This seems like a smash spot for one of the game’s great pitchers to have a night.

Key stat: Los Angeles is 1-8 in its last nine games while averaging 2.4 runs.

Best MLB picks

Bregman over 1.5 bases (+110): Bregman has been hitting the cover off the ball for the Boston Red Sox lately. Just look at what he’s done over the last 10 games:

  • 16-for-40 (.400 BA)
  • 5 doubles, 2 home runs
  • 2+ bases in 7 of 10 games

The veteran righty has an extra-base hit in three straight games (one double, two HR) and now gets the benefit of facing a pitcher he’s dominated.

Bregman is 6-for-13 against Minnesota Twins righty Joe Ryan three doubles and two home runs. None of those at-bats ended in strikeouts, either, so the ball has consistently been put in play.

Ray over 7.5 strikeouts (-134): Ray has been erratic this season, but like Skubal, he has an opportunity to do damage against an awful team.

The southpaw starts at home against the Colorado Rockies, who are simply awful.

  • Colorado is 6-25 (on pace for 31 wins).
  • It has the highest K rate overall (28.1%) and against LHP (29.2%)

Ray doesn’t have a huge sample size against Colorado’s lineup, but the results are staggeringly strong. He has 13 strikeouts in 23 at-bats (54.2% K rate) while giving up just three hits.

The San Francisco Giants’ starter has cleared this line in two of his last three starts

MLB prop picks made at 2:10 p.m. ET on 05/02/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 2: Bet on Skubal to go deep against Angels, Ray to punch out Rockies

MLB prop picks

Tarik Skubal headlines Friday’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: The reigning AL Cy Young is off to a solid start and draws an A-plus matchup against the downtrodden Los Angeles Angels. I’m banking on Skubal pitching deep into that ballgame, and I also have prop bets on Alex Bregman and Robbie Ray.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 2.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Skubal over 18.5 outs (+128)

Pitching into the seventh inning isn’t commonplace in today’s game, but Skubal has the arsenal and matchup to make it happen tonight.

The fireballing lefty hasn’t missed a beat after an award-winning 2024. Skubal got roughed up by the Los Angeles Dodgers in his first start and has been stellar since.

  • 1.52 ERA in five starts
  • .223 opponent BA
  • 11.71 K/9

Skubal only cleared this line in one of those outings, throwing 7.0 shutout innings against the Milwaukee Brewers. But he had also landed on exactly 18 outs (6.0 IP) twice.

The Angels are one of baseball’s worst offensive teams, and they especially struggle against lefties. Los Angeles is batting .204 (27th) with a 59 wRC+ (29th) against LHP this season.

This seems like a smash spot for one of the game’s great pitchers to have a night.

Key stat: Los Angeles is 1-8 in its last nine games while averaging 2.4 runs.

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Best MLB picks

Bregman over 1.5 bases (+123): Bregman has been hitting the cover off the ball for the Boston Red Sox lately. Just look at what he’s done over the last 10 games:

  • 16-for-40 (.400 BA)
  • 5 doubles, 2 home runs
  • 2+ bases in 7 of 10 games

The veteran righty has an extra-base hit in three straight games (one double, two HR) and now gets the benefit of facing a pitcher he’s dominated.

Bregman is 6-for-13 against Minnesota Twins righty Joe Ryan three doubles and two home runs. None of those at-bats ended in strikeouts, either, so the ball has consistently been put in play.

Ray over 7.5 strikeouts (-124): Ray has been erratic this season, but like Skubal, he has an opportunity to do damage against an awful team.

The southpaw starts at home against the Colorado Rockies, who are simply awful.

  • Colorado is 6-25 (on pace for 31 wins).
  • It has the highest K rate overall (28.1%) and against LHP (29.2%)

Ray doesn’t have a huge sample size against Colorado’s lineup, but the results are staggeringly strong. He has 13 strikeouts in 23 at-bats (54.2% K rate) while giving up just three hits.

The San Francisco Giants’ starter has cleared this line in two of his last three starts

MLB prop picks made at 2:10 p.m. ET on 05/02/2025.

Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks Game 6: Bet on Jimmy Butler, fade Jalen Green on Friday

Rockets vs. Warriors picks

The Golden State Warriors have another opportunity to close out their series against the Houston Rockets.

The pregame narrative: Golden State lept out to a 3-1 lead after winning both games in the Bay Area. Houston responded with a convincing win at home in Game 5, but finds itself as a 5-point underdog on Friday.

Check out my Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks featuring Jimmy Butler and Jalen Green for Game 6 of the opening round.

Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks

Best Bet: Butler over 22.5 points (-112)

It’s been an up-and-down series for Butler. The veteran forward came out of the gates firing with a 25-point performance before getting injured in Game 2, which caused him to miss Game 3.

Butler then returned with a 27-point showing in Game 4 but had just eight points in Houston on Wednesday.

So what are we going to get from him? My guess is a lot.

I’m not going to put a ton of stock into Butler’s Game 5 performance. Golden State was awful as a whole, with Steph Curry scoring just 13 points on 4-of-12 shooting. Butler (25 minutes) and Curry (23 minutes) sat out most of the second half.

Steve Kerr and Co. probably want nothing to do with heading back to Houston for Game 7, and I expect Butler to get plenty of run on Friday. He played 40-plus minutes in both games that he cleared this line.

Curry should also get things going, given that the Rockets allowed the most PPG to point guards this season, according to Fantasy Pros. That should stretch the floor for Butler.

Key stat: Excluding Game 2, Butler has reached the 20-point milestone in 19 of his last 25 playoff games.

Game 6 prop prediction

Green under 20.5 points and rebounds (-130): Green’s 38-point outburst in Game 2 looks like a true anomaly. The fourth-year guard is getting his first taste of playoff action and has stunk the joint out in the other four games this series.

  • Game 1: 7 points (3-of-15 shooting)
  • Game 3: 9 points (4-of-11 shooting)
  • Game 4: 8 points (3-of-8 shooting)
  • Game 5: 11 points (3-of-8 shooting)

Green hasn’t been shooting accurately, and now he’s not even shooting with volume. That seems like a pretty good baseline for a fade.

The Warriors are running out a small-ball lineup with Butler at power forward and Draymond Green at centre, but that hasn’t stopped them from feasting on the glass.

Golden State was seventh in rebounding rate following Butler’s acquisition in the regular season. The Dubs also held shooting guards to the 11th-fewest points and seventh-fewest rebounds per game.

Green is 1-4 against this line in this series.

Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET 05/02/2025.

Guardians vs. Blue Jays prop picks May 2: Back Vladimir Guerrero Jr., fade Chris Bassitt

Blue Jays picks

The Toronto Blue Jays open up a three-game homestand against the Cleveland Guardians on Friday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto rebounded from an ugly stretch with back-to-back comeback wins over the Boston Red Sox. The Jays hope to keep the good vibes rolling against a Guardians team leading the AL Central at 18-13.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Chris Bassitt are my Blue Jays prop picks for May 2.

Blue Jays picks vs. Guardians

Best Bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (-108)

Guerrero played the hero last night hitting a three-run blast in the eighth inning to put Toronto up and secure the series win.

And can we talk about where he hit that pitch from? Talk about shades of his old man.

Anyways, Guerrero is rounding into form with hits in six of his last seven games — three of those left the yard. He’s still slashing an underwhelming .267/.358/.422 this season but Baseball Savant’s advanced metrics paint a rosier picture:

  • .311 xBA (94th percnetile)
  • .518 xSLG (84th percentile)
  • 54.3% hard-hit rate (93rd percentile)

Guerrero is still mashing baseballs, but they just happen to be going right at fielders. Things are bound to start breaking his way sooner rather than later, and we’ve already seen that over the past week.

Tonight’s matchup against Cleveland’s Logan Allen presents a strong opportunity for Guerrero to stay hot.

The southpaw owns a 4.21 ERA through five starts and just got tagged for seven earned runs on nine hits against the Red Sox.

Key stat: Guerrero is slashing .308/.417/.538 against LHP since the start of last season.

Quick pick

Bassitt under 5.5 strikeouts (-138): The Bassitt Cy Young hype train has been derailed, at least for now. Toronto’s righty has gotten rocked in consecutive starts after posting a 0.77 ERA through his first four outings of the year:

  • April 22 vs. HOU: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 K
  • April 27 vs. NYY: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 5 K

I expect a better performance from Bassitt on Friday, but think this strikeout line is way too high, even if he works deep into the ballgame.

Why? Bassitt’s K rate was below the league average in three straight seasons heading into 2025. And while he has a 76th percentile K rate through six starts, we’re early on and have already seen a regression to the mean.

The righty is 1-3 against this line in his last four starts and has a 39th percentile whiff rate to boot.

Cleveland strikes out at the 10th-lowest rate vs. RHP, and its lineup has a 19.4% K rate against Bassitt in 35 combined plate appearances.

Guardians vs. Blue Jays picks made at 11:05 a.m. ET on 05/02/2025.